Perhaps befitting its New England location, there’s nothing flashy about New Hampshire Motor Speedway. The 1-mile oval is nearly board-flat and extremely difficult, with sharp corners that feed into long straights. In a history that dates back almost three decades, Joe Nemechek in 1999, Brian Vickers in 2013 and Aric Almirola last season are as close as it comes to surprise winners.

For NASCAR betting fans looking for potential value in Sunday’s event, it’s an intriguing prospect: A track that doesn’t generate many long-shot winners, amid a season that’s churned out lots of them. 

We almost saw another last week at Atlanta, until +25000 Corey LaJoie spun out racing Chase Elliott for the victory on the final lap. But the odds of an upset in Loudon, it would seem, are about as remote as finding mustard in your lobster roll. Even Almirola, the 2021 winner, was in a top-tier Stewart-Haas car.

And yet, this is the debut of the new, next-gen vehicle in New Hampshire, and we’ve still seen only one odds favorite win this season—Kyle Larson at Fontana in the second race of the year. Ryan Blaney, the Loudon odds favorite on betting apps, has a top finish at the track of fourth. So maybe the Magic Mile will produce some magic indeed.

Ambetter 301 Odds

Driver	Win	Top 3	Top 5
Ryan Blaney	+600	+170	-120
Kyle Busch	+700	+200	-110
Joey Logano	+700	+200	-110
Martin Truex Jr.	+800	+220	+100
Denny Hamlin	+800	+220	+100
Chase Elliott	+900	+250	+120
Ross Chastain	+1000	+280	+130
Kyle Larson	+1400	+400	+180

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

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Ambetter 301 Betting Tips

Seven active drivers have victories at New Hampshire, led by Kevin Harvick with four, and Denny Hamlin and Kyle and Kurt Busch with three each. Harvick’s most recent victory was in 2019, and he’s in the midst of a winless skid that now stands at 62 straight races—though the Stewart-Haas standard-bearer has shown signs of life with top-10 runs in seven of his last 10 starts overall.

Hamlin hasn’t won in Loudon since 2017, and his underwhelming 2022 campaign continued with a 25th-place run at Atlanta. Kyle Busch has crashed out of his last two at the Magic Mile, and finished 20th or worse in four straight overall. 

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Big brother Kurt? He hasn’t won in New Hampshire since 2008. Among past NHMS winners, the best option might be Joey Logano, who’s been fourth there in back-to-back races, although he’s struggled in five of his last seven overall.

New Hampshire, then, may be ripe for a first-time winner. Keep an eye on Cole Custer and Tyler Reddick, who each have two previous starts in Loudon, and average finishes of 10th and 11th respectively. 

Blaney led 64 laps and finished fifth in 2021, and has placed sixth or better in four of his last five. Christopher Bell was second there last season, and Atlanta runner-up Ross Chastain continues to prove he can run well anywhere—including Loudon, where he was eighth a season ago.

Ambetter 301 Betting Predictions

Ross Chastain to Win, +1000

We’ve hit on winners in each of the past two weeks, taking Elliott to prevail at Atlanta and Road America victor Reddick as the top Chevrolet. This week we’re going with Chastain, who despite his rather polarizing reputation has been nothing short of excellent over the past month. His eighth-place finish last year at Loudon came in a Chip Ganassi car, and he’s clearly in better stuff now.

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Kyle Larson Top-3, +350 

Remember this guy, the reigning Cup Series champion? Larson has looked a little more like his old self recently, finishing fourth or better in two of his last three. He’s been excellent at New Hampshire, where he’s been a runner-up three times. Larson hasn’t won in a long time, but he’s once again showing signs of being a contender.

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Kevin Harvick Top Ford, +500

Speaking of someone who hasn’t won in a long time—it’s been a rough go for Harvick, a proud driver with a title to his name. But the winless skid has overshadowed some good runs, including three of fourth or better since May. Taking him to win this week might be asking too much. But to be the best in a somewhat shallow Ford stable? Not at all.

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Ambetter 301 Date, Time and TV

When: Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET

Where: New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Loudon, N.H.

TV: USA

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