Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds, Tips & Expert Predictions

By Dan Kilbridge Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EDT

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There’s a reason so many players circle this week’s Tour stop on their calendar. There’s a reason the greater Orlando crowds are so big and passionate at Bay Hill. There’s a reason the quote “You must play boldly to win,” is seen on scoreboards and repeated throughout the broadcast each year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

There’s also a reason the golf betting action is always so intriguing at this event. This week’s tournament is all about honoring its namesake, and Arnold Palmer played like a gambler – go big, or go home. No hedging.

That same style of play is a common characteristic among the top contenders on betting sites and betting apps, with reigning U.S. Open champion Jon Rahm a significant favorite at +750 odds. Oddsmakers had to adjust the board when defending champ Bryson DeChambeau withdrew due to injury on Monday morning.

Rory McIlroy, the 2018 API champ, is next with golf odds of +1000. Recent Phoenix Open winner Scottie Scheffler is third at +1600 while Viktor Hovland (+1800) and 2019 API runner-up Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2000) round out the top five.

2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review for more information.

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2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Pick & Betting Tips

Best Bet: Max Homa Top-10 Finish

Odds: +350 at BetMGM

It’s no secret that Homa has a great appreciation for the classic Tour layouts, with victories at Quail Hollow and Riviera Country Club already on the resume. He’d sure like to add another at Bay Hill, where the 31-year-old has finished T-10 and T-24 in two prior starts.

Homa’s irons have been sharp all season and the game is clearly in great form, with three top-15 finishes in his last four starts. He also skipped last week’s Honda Classic and will be well-rested for another Thursday tee time in Orlando.

He’s plenty long off the tee and should find himself into contention with a little cooperation from the flat stick.

We like the odds at BetMGM on Homa for a top-10 finish at +350.

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2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Tips

There’s nothing too tricky about Bay Hill. It’s a classic country club setup with several good scoring holes and others where players are grateful to get out with a par on Sunday – most notably the 220-yard par-3 17th.

Distance isn’t all that matters here – it’s a second-shot golf course and the best iron players are usually rewarded. But it’s a huge help on a number of holes and it wasn’t surprising to see DeChambeau get it done with his newfound distance a year ago.

Accuracy off the tee is important on many holes as well. The rough isn’t quite U.S. Open-levels of thick, but it’s not far off. Hitting the green with the second shot into No. 18 is almost impossible from off the fairway, and you can’t fake it around Bay Hill when the swing isn’t dialed in.

We’re looking for guys with all-around solid games, who don’t do one thing drastically better than others. Age isn’t a big factor, as we saw with 48-year-old Lee Westwood coming up one stroke shy a year ago. It’s all about players who are dialed in with the swing and at their very best for one of the tougher events on the calendar.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational, Date & TV

When: Thursday-Sunday, March 3-6

Where: Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, Florida

TV: Golf Channel, NBC

About the Author

Dan Kilbridge

More About Dan

Handicapper Dan Kilbridge writes about college football, MLB and other sports for Bookies.com after spending three years covering Tiger Woods’ comeback and the PGA for Golfweek.