Azerbaijan hosts the eighth round of this Formula 1 season and this is a venue where anything can happen, given its unorthodox layout with a couple of long straights and then a number of winding corners. 

The championship battle has been blown wide open, too, after Red Bull’s Sergio Perez took his first win of the season last time out in Monaco to put himself within touching distance of Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and teammate Max Verstappen in the standings. 

Let’s look ahead to this weekend’s Azerbaijan Grand Prix at Baku City Circuit, with the race odds on betting sites and betting apps.

Formula 1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds 

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook and accurate as of publication.

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Azerbaijan Grand Prix Betting Tips

Is this the toughest race to call on the whole calendar? With four different winners since the first-ever Azerbaijan Grand Prix in 2017 (the 2016 race being known as the European Grand Prix), plus seven different teams having taken a podium, it certainly seems that way. 

That unpredictability is reflected in the odds above, Verstappen fetching +120 via Caesars – with Monaco winner and teammate Perez a longer and more lucrative +600. Now, there’s never been a repeat winner at this circuit, nor has there been a Ferrari winner. Leclerc, who took pole position here back in 2021, is +175 to win.

When it comes to the qualifying winner, Leclerc is +100 with BetMGM and Verstappen is at +125 to take his first pole in Baku. Carlos Sainz and Perez have much longer odds with BetMGM, at +700 to take pole position. 

There are a couple of factors that should go a long way to deciding pole sitter and race winner in Azerbaijan. The first is straight-line speed, something in which Red Bull have the edge over Ferrari and Mercedes. The second is downforce – something that Red Bull and Ferrari are neck-and-neck in this season. 

Then there’s the weather – it’s set to be dry but slightly windy this weekend, which should throw some drivers off on Azerbaijan’s streets. Oh, and Safety Cars. This is a race that breeds caution.

So while Red Bull might have the slightest of advantages going into this weekend, it’s not quite that simple…

Azerbaijan Grand Prix Predictions

Let’s go back to the pole-position question. That should be a fight between Leclerc, Verstappen and Perez – they fetch odds of +105, +130 and +850 respectively via Caesars Sportsbook. The Mexican driver seems particularly good value there, even if he is an outsider on Saturday.

Then there’s the case of the winner. Perez won last year when Verstappen had a late puncture and Lewis Hamilton locked up from the lead thanks to an erroneous button press. That seems like an unusual series of events but it’s commonplace in Baku, the venue that just loves chaos. That’s why we saw Daniel Ricciardo win from 10^th on the grid here back in 2017 – and that’s why there’s only been one winner from pole here in four races (Valtteri Bottas, 2019).

Leclerc and Verstappen are sensible bets for the win, at +175 and +120 via Caesars Sportsbook, but it wouldn’t be foolish to back a shock winner this weekend either. Perhaps consider Carlos Sainz, at +900 via BetMGM or Caesars; George Russell at +2200 via Caesars Sportsbook; or Lando Norris at +800 via either sportsbook.

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Podium bets are safer, Sainz weighing in at +120, Russell at +300, Norris at +650 and Bottas at +1000 to take a top-three finish this weekend. Bottas is due a strong result given the pace of his Ferrari-powered Alfa Romeo, in which he has scored points in all but one race this season. If there is a race in which he can spring a shock, it’s this one.

Then there are retirements. Azerbaijan saw six retirements in 2017 and six in 2018, and with a new era of heavier, bigger cars, there could be that many at Baku again this season. Caesars Sportsbook is offering odds of +225 for Alfa Romeo rookie Guanyu Zhou not to complete the race, and the same for Nicholas Latifi or Yuki Tsunoda. BetMGM is offering +140 for 16-17 cars to be classified, +230 for under 15.5 cars to be classified in the end result, and +1600 for over 19.5 cars to be classified.

At +700 via BetMGM, it’s also worth considering McLaren for the fastest pitstop as they have executed the fastest stop out of anybody three times this season. 

With Perez just 15 points off top spot, he’s a generous +2500 to win the drivers’ championship via Caesars. Nine points off leader Verstappen, Charles Leclerc is fetching +150 to win the championship via BetMGM.

As for the constructors’ championship, Ferrari are 36 points behind leaders Red Bull. They fetch odds of +130 to win that championship via either BetMGM or Caesars.

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