2024 PGA Championship

By Adam Thompson May 14th, 2024 9:25 PM EDT

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The 106th edition of the PGA Championship descends onto Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Ky. with a full field of 156 golfers, including 16 from the LIV Tour.

And that group includes defending PGA Championship champion Brooks Koepka, who edged out Scottie Scheffler by two strokes to take the PGA’s top title back to the rival tour.

Nobody has been edging out Scheffer lately. The world’s No. 1-ranked player has won four of his last five tournaments, including The Masters and The Players Championship. He took runner-up in the fifth.

Scheffler is the near-prohibitive favorite. The latest PGA Championship odds have Scheffler at +400, a Tiger-like level of low odds. Rory McIlroy is next at +750 – he won last week’s Wells Fargo Championship – then it’s a sizeable gap before Xander Schauffele (+1400), Jon Rahm (+1600) and Koepka (+1600).

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To Win: Scottie Scheffler

Odds: +400 at DraftKings

Such a boring pick, we know. But no player is playing even close to as well as Scottie right now. He’s not only No. 1 in the world, but it’s because he’s No. 1 in areas such as driving, ball striking and greens in regulation. He’s just inside the Top 20 in putting – that’s good enough, considering how well he’s doing in every other facet.

Top 20: Ludvig Aberg

Odds: +100 at FanDuel

The Swede has made all 10 cuts this season and has finished outside the Top 20 just once in his last eight tournaments. That includes a runner-up finish at The Masters. Aberg is playing remarkable golf, and this course suits his game. Anything outside the Top 20 would be a step back for a young golfer on the major upswing (pun intended).

Top 40: Erik Van Rooyen

Odds: +175 at Caesars

Van Rooyen is strong off the tee and with the irons. Putting is his weak spot, but he’s still 61st in putts per round. Like Scheffler, Van Rooyen has the right tools to make a statement here. While Scottie’s statement is winning, Van Rooyen’s is playing strong on Sunday.

Matchup: Byeong Hun An over Jason Day

Odds: -120 at DraftKings

An has taken third and fourth in his last two tournaments and 21st or better in six of nine. I am a big fan of Day, and he did take fourth at the Wells Fargo Championship last week, but that was still behind An, and Day has just one other tournament inside the Top 30 since mid-February. An’s superior ball striking in 2024 propels him at Valhalla.

Masters Picks By Price

14K-9K Range

Xander Schauffele, $10,800: We’re not taking Scheffler this week, but it doesn’t have anything to do with the golf. He’s won three of his last four starts and it’s now clear we’re witnessing a once-in-a-generation type run. The problem is his wife is due with their first child and Scheffler might need to leave the tournament at any time.

We’ll go with the “safer” – certainly cheaper – option on top of Schauffele. He’s had seven top-10s in his last nine starts and looks dialed in across the bag. While he never really contended at Augusta, a solo eighth finish is still solid and now the pressure is off. We’re going with Schauffele over Scheffler to kick things off in Hilton Head.

Patrick Cantlay, $10,200: We haven’t seen anything close to Cantlay’s best golf lately. It’s been 20 months since his last victory and off-course obligations seem to be impacting his play. But if there’s anywhere Cantlay can show up and find a spark, it’s Harbour Town. Cantlay has five top-10s and four top-3s in just six career starts here and it’s a perfect course fit. The putter has been a little cold lately, but that doesn’t matter as much this week. We like Cantlay to start getting back into form.

$10,000 Or Higher

Scottie Scheffler ($13,200) is over-the-top expensive for DFS for such a deep field. Yes, he’s the massive favorite, and he’ll be included in at least one of my teams. But not all of him.

Xander Schauffele ($10,900) will be the highest-priced golfer in most of my lineups. He’s Top 5 in ball striking on the PGA Tour and he’s on fire, with four Top 8 finishes in his last five tournaments.

Ludvig Aberg ($10,500) hasn’t missed a cut and has only finished inside the Top 25 in eight starts since Feb. 1.

$8,000-$9,999

Wyndham Clark ($9,500) bounced back and forth between competitor and non-entity. The took 61st at The Masters, but had two runner-up finishes in March, and more-recently was third at the RBC Heritage.

Cameron Young ($9,000) is 12-for-12 on cuts, and he showed out at The Masters with a ninth-place spot. He’s finished Top 10 in five of his last 11 events.

Sam Burns ($8,500) is Top 25 with the irons and with the putter. Usually those are great attributes in high-stakes majors. He didn’t make the cut at The Masters, but has finished 44th two tournament s ago then 19th last weekend at the Wells Fargo.

$7,999-Under

Byeong Hun An ($7,800) is playing as well as anyone this side of Scottie and Xander, with consecutive top-five finishes and a 16th at The Masters. If he can make putts, he can be a big value.

Chris Kirk ($6,900) has been unspectacular-but-steady, making 10-of-11 cuts this season – a nice goal to have for the bargain-basement guys. He tied for 16th at The Masters, who this event isn’t too big for the veteran.

Adrian Meronk ($6,700) missed the cut at The Masters but has six Top 10 finishes in LIV Golf events. We’re not all-in for any LIV guy this week, but this is a solid price on a golfer perhaps flying under the radar.

Erik Van Rooyen ($5,700) is 11-of-14 on cuts and is coming off a confident fourth-place finish at the Myrtle Beach Open. He hasn’t been great at the elite tournaments in 2024, but he’s been hitting the ball well and putting the ball well enough to make the weekend.

About the Author

Adam Thompson

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Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.