Can NBA Playoff Teams Down 3-1 Come Back To Win Series?

By Jim Tomlin

May 28th, 2025 8:34 PM EDT

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Both conference finals in the NBA playoffs are on the verge of ending. The Oklahoma City Thunder won three of the first four games over the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference and the Indiana Pacers lead 3-1 in the East’s best-of-seven series against the New York Knicks.

Bookies.com wanted to know NBA betting trends for teams leading a series 3-1 – what does history say about the trailing teams’ chances to rally and reach the NBA Finals? We used LandofBasketball.com to look at how often teams trailing 3-1 in a series have come back and won.

How Often NBA Teams Erase 3-1 Series Deficits

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Odds For Knicks, Timberwolves To Rally

For anybody cheering on New York or Minnesota, whether they’re fans or sports betting backers, the outlook while staring at a 3-1 series deficit is bleak. But the situation is not impossible.

In NBA history, according to the Land of Basketball site, 296 NBA teams have won three of the first four games in a best-of-seven postseason series. Only 13 have squandered that advantage.

Neither the Knicks nor the T-wolves have ever erased a 3-1 deficit. Only 4.4% of teams trailing by that margin have ever done so; that implied probability would translate to +2150 odds at sports betting apps.

Minnesota, which is in OKC for tonight’s Game 5 (8:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN), is 0-for-4 in trying to overturn a 3-1 deficit. The T-wolves have only forced Game 6 once in that situation, beating the Los Angeles Lakers at home in Game 5 of the West Finals in 2004. The Lakers closed out the series in six games.

The Knicks have a much longer history as a founding member of the league in the 1946-47 season. They have tried to overcome a 3-1 playoff hole 15 times but have never succeeded. Nine times, the series has ended in five games. New York has forced Game 6 six times and took the series the distance twice, including 1995, when the Knicks won Games 5 and 6 but lost to the Pacers in seven games in a second-round series.

New York hosts the Pacers on Thursday in Game 5 (8 p.m. Eastern, TNT) with its season on the line, trying to avoid being eliminated by Indiana for the sixth time in history.

NBA Playoff Odds For Both Series

At Caesars Sportsbook , the Knicks have +450 odds to win three straight games and reach the NBA Finals (compared to -600 odds for the Pacers). The operator has much steeper odds on Minnesota pulling off the comeback feat, at +1700, compared to -6000 odds on OKC to capture the Western Conference championship.

There is history for teams erasing a 3-1 margin in the NBA Conference Finals. Three teams have done it since the NBA adopted a conference format (plus a fourth one when the penultimate round was known as the division finals). The most recent team to pull off the feat at this stage of the playoffs was the 2016 Golden State Warriors, who came back from 3-1 down against Minnesota.

BetMGM Sportsbook has Oklahoma City as an 8.5-point favorite for tonight’s game. The operator lists New York as a 4.5-point favorite to extend the East final with a victory on Thursday.

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About the Author

Jim Tomlin

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Veteran writer and editor Jim Tomlin has more than 20 years of experience in sports journalism, covering IndyCar, NASCAR, football, soccer.