The Memorial Day weekend 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway was long NASCAR’s ultimate test of man and machine, a race that demanded equipment hold up over a five-hour marathon. In that first race in 1960, 24 cars fell out due to failures. But the vehicles have now grown so reliable, we’ve seen just two DNFs due to failures over the last two 600s: Kurt Busch with a blown engine last year, and Bubba Wallace with a brake issue in 2020.

These days, it’s very rare for championship-contending teams to suffer fatal part failures—we’ve seen just three, all engines, since the April 17 Bristol dirt race, according to the latest data. What does that mean for NASCAR betting fans? More drivers getting to the finish, and more chances to cash in on winners like +3500 Kurt Busch on the NASCAR odds board, who claimed the most recent points race at Kansas two weeks ago.

While engines remain finicky things—just ask Kyle Larson, who’s lost two of them this season—it would be a surprise to see a rash of failures Sunday in the Coca-Cola 600. Along with the new car, that degree of reliability is another factor widening the pool of contenders beyond just the sport’s more well-known names. Bettors who recognize that can capitalize on more +3500 winners at betting sites, which have become the rule rather than the exception this season.

Coca-Cola 600 Odds

Odds current as of publication from DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.

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NASCAR Coca-Cola 600 Predictions & Betting Tips

Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. lead active drivers with three wins apiece at Charlotte, each of them owning a pair of Coca-Cola 600 titles. But Harvick is in the midst of a 56-week winless skid and has led just 13 laps all season, while Truex has been in the mix to win a race just once, at Richmond in early April. The only other multiple-time Charlotte winner, Brad Keselowski, has been a non-factor in his first campaign running with underperforming Roush.

Kyle Busch, co-odds favorite on betting apps with Larson, won the 600 in 2018, part of a span in which he’s finished fourth or better in five of seven Charlotte starts. Larson owns top 10s in three of his last four at Charlotte, including a 600 victory last year. He won that race from the pole, continuing a trend that’s seen 14 Charlotte winners come from the first two rows in the last 20 years.

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Charlotte is a fast, difficult place to pass, allowing leaders the opportunity to check out. Only two Charlotte winners since 2007 have come from beyond 10th on the starting grid, so keep an eye out for Saturday night’s qualifying results.

NASCAR Coca-Cola 600 Best Bets

Christopher Bell to Win, +2500

Sure, it would make more sense to back Busch, who’s running better than anyone right now and has the best recent track record at Charlotte. But in this wacky season, you’ve got to take some chances. Bell has been under-the-radar good the past three weeks, over which his worst finish is sixth. He led 37 laps two weeks ago at Kansas, another 1.5-mile tri-oval, where he placed fifth. Bell is also a very good qualifier, which can make a difference at Charlotte.

Kurt Busch Top 5, +200

The elder Busch brother has been a fantastic play for bettors this season, taking to the new car with élan and reminding us that he can wheel anything. His win two weeks ago at Kansas followed a third at Atlanta and an eighth at Fontana, so the guy clearly has a feel for tri-ovals. And his Charlotte record is great: Toss out last year’s engine failure and he’s been top 10 in eight of his last 10 starts there.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Top 10

We apologize, Ricky. A few weeks ago in our examination of the most wreck-prone NASCAR drivers, we dismissed the guy for having a bad season. He clearly used that as motivation to turn things around, following a runner-up finish at Dover with back-to-back eighth-place results. He’s also been 10th or better in three of his last five at Charlotte, a span which includes a career-best finish of fourth in the 600 in 2020.

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Coca-Cola 600 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 6 p.m. ET

Where: Charlotte (N.C.) Motor Speedway

TV: FOX