The biggest surprise of the 2021 NASCAR Season came in the very first race when +6000 underdog Michael McDowell drove through a fiery final-lap crash to win the Daytona 500. Could something similar unfold this Sunday at the World Center of Racing? You better believe it!

Three-time Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin is the universal favorite at sportsbooks, with odds ranging from +800 to +900. But Daytona is one of those superspeedway tracks that narrows the competitive gaps between NASCAR’s elite and everyone else. Late wrecks that knock out top contenders are all too common. And this season debuts a new, next-generation car that in many ways is vastly different from its predecessor, and which everyone will be adjusting to in the heat of the sport’s biggest race.

Just look at Daytona history: The last nine races on the big track, including the summertime 400-miler, have produced winners like McDowell, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones, Justin Haley, Austin Dillon and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. It’s Daytona, man—cars run in such tight packs, that if someone goes sideways at the wrong time, it’s very possible that a Ross Chastain or Chase Briscoe could end up celebrating in the sport’s most coveted Victory Lane.

2022 Daytona 500 Odds

NASCAR odds listed are current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

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2022 Daytona 500 Betting Tips

The run-up to the Daytona 500 is very different than that of a standard NASCAR race, and NASCAR betting fans will have ample opportunity to get a feel for which cars are fastest. Drivers will have four practice sessions over the course of the week, the front row starters will be set by single-lap qualifying runs, and everyone else will have their places in the starting field set by the results of two 150-mile qualifying races held Thursday night.

So there’s a lot of track time, and it will be needed given that drivers will be getting used to this next-gen car on a big track. Spectators will notice the difference in the single wheel lug nut, and the more showroom look. But the bigger departure is how it is assembled—pieces now come from common manufacturers—and how it drives. There’s an independent rear suspension instead of a solid axle, a six-speed transmission instead of five, and a composite body that allows damaged parts to be switched out.

So we’re facing a real unknown here and the exhibition Clash at the Coliseum two weeks ago didn’t shed much light. Hamlin leads all active drivers with three Daytona victories, while Bubba Wallace leads all regular Cup competitors with an average finish of 13.7. How much do those numbers still matter? Bettors would be wise to pay attention to practice sessions and qualifying races before committing to a driver to back.

2022 Daytona 500 Best Bets

Odds: +1900 at BetMGM

One of the best superspeedway drivers of his era, Busch has left Chip Ganassi’s middling team for a 23IX car that should be better at Daytona. While Busch hasn’t finished better than 10th since his 500 victory in 2017, he’s proven he can lead laps if he can avoid the crashes that have ended five of his last nine Daytona starts. Plus, if there’s ever a time to take a chance on a savvy driver with more favorable NASCAR odds, it’s this race.

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Odds: +260 at BetMGM

Busch’s teammate at 23IX (co-owned by Hamlin and Michael Jordan) is a fantastic superspeedway racer himself, winning at Talladega last season and finishing second in Daytona’s 400-miler. Wallace was also runner-up in the 2018 Daytona 500, and fifth in the 400-miler in 2020. It’s tempting to take him to win at +2000, or really be bold and go for the Busch/Wallace +6500 dual forecast offered by DraftKings.

Ross Chastain Top-10 Finish

Odds: +150 at FanDuel

We love Chastain, a tremendous superspeedway talent at a lower-level team. Chastain finished seventh in last season’s Daytona 500 and was in the mix to win the track’s 400-miler when he was caught up in a crash in the waning laps. While the equipment isn’t the best—his Trackhouse team obtained Ganassi’s assets—Chastain has proven he can make the most of it.

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Denny Hamlin, Top Toyota

Odds: +240 at TwinSpires

For all the talk of upsets and unknowns, Hamlin remains one of the best ever at Daytona, and a complete betting portfolio needs to include him in some way. We’re going the manufacturer route, which offers more favorable odds on betting apps for a driver who’s finished in the top five in five of his last eight starts at Daytona.

Kevin Harvick, Top Ford

Odds: +700 at TwinSpires

Has everyone forgotten that Harvick remains an elite driver capable of contending anywhere? Maybe his winless 2021 season cast some doubt on that, but among Ford drivers—many of whom, like Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano, have a penchant for wrecking a lot—Harvick easily has the best career record at Daytona (including fourth last year in the 500). Plus, those odds on betting sites are tough to pass up.

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2022 Daytona 500 Date, Time and TV

When: Sunday, 2:30 p.m.

Where: Daytona International Speedway, Daytona Beach, Florida.

TV: FOX