Craziness ensued last weekend on NASCAR’s craziest track, where +2800-to-win Ross Chastain led only the final lap to emerge from the pack at Talladega Superspeedway. It’s been a remarkable season thus far for higher-odds drivers, with Chastain now having won twice, and Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric also reaching Victory Lane. But that trend may be coming to an end—well, at least for the next two weeks.

Sunday’s event at Dover Motor Speedway marks the first of consecutive events on incredibly difficult racetracks that put a premium on driver skill. Dover is a ridiculously fast, high-banked 1-mile concrete oval where cars dive deep into the corners and contact can cause a massive pileup. And next week brings Darlington Raceway, that bedeviling egg-shaped layout where the racing line puts cars right up against the outside wall. If there’s ever a stretch for the old guard to reassert itself, this is it.

That helps explain why Kyle Larson is such a heavy NASCAR odds favorite for Dover after an uneven (by his standards) season thus far. Betting apps have Larson atop the board at +450, well ahead of Hendrick teammates Chase Elliott and William Byron, both at +900. Alex Bowman, who claimed the 2021 race at the Monster Mile, was only the second driver without a premier-series championship to have won there since 2008.

Drydene 400 Odds

Odds current as of publication and subject to change (visit our DraftKings sportsbook Review).

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Drydene 400 Betting Tips

Just three active drivers have multiple victories at Dover: Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. Truex has run best on the concrete mile recently, with top-two finishes in four of his last five. But he’s rarely looked like a contender to win this season, whereas Busch has been ninth or better in each of his last four. Harvick is on a 52-race winless skid and has just one top-five finish this season, hardly trademarks of a driver to back.

The Hendrick contingent could well decide this one among themselves. Bowman’s 2021 victory is part of a five-race stretch at Dover that’s netted four top-five results. Elliott has been fifth or better, with one victory, in four of his last six in the Delaware capital. Larson has gone third, first and second in his last three starts at Dover and holds a series-best average finish of seventh, while Byron has been fourth in back-to-back races there. All four have been running well recently, led by Larson with top-fives in three of his last four overall.

Although Brad Keselowski has lots of top-10s at Dover, his new Roush car is clearly down on performance, and as we saw last week at Talladega (23rd, no laps led) he can’t just flip the switch at a place where he’s been historically strong. Denny Hamlin has been seventh or better (with one win) in three of his last four at Dover, but since his Richmond victory four weeks ago his best finish has been 18th. The veteran to watch might be Joey Logano, who’s been top-10 in five of his last seven at Dover, and had gone second and third overall before being swept up in a crash at Talladega.

Drydene 400 Predictions & Best Bets

Kyle Larson to Win, +450

Wait, don’t you realize that a NASCAR betting favorite hasn’t won since Larson at Fontana, the second race of the year? Indeed, but Dover is a place that rewards local knowledge, and Larson has been excellent there. And after a brief, uncharacteristic slump, he’s been fifth or better in three of his last four, with 59 laps led the past two weeks. It’s not crazy to think that Larson could sweep the next two weeks.

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William Byron Top 3, +250

Yep, Hendrick again. Elliott may be the points leader, but he doesn’t have a top-three finish (much less a victory) so far this season, while Byron leads the team with two wins in addition to a third-place run at Richmond. Byron also led 21 laps last season at Richmond before finishing fourth there for the second consecutive year.

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Alex Bowman Top 5, +110

Indeed, we’re going with the Hendrick Trifecta at the Monster Mile for our NASCAR picks this week. Why not? In Bowman’s last five races there, he’s been second, third, fifth and first. He led 98 laps there last year—not bad for a guy who supposedly can’t lead laps. And with top-10s in five of his last six overall, he’s running well heading to one of his best tracks.

Drydene 400 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 3 p.m.

Where: Dover International Speedway, Dover, Delaware

TV: FS1