Federated Auto Parts 400 NASCAR Odds & Picks at Richmond

The first race of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs resulted in a shakeup in championship odds, with Kevin Harvick’s win at Darlington entrenching him as the title favorite at +175. Denny Hamlin, who entered last week virtually neck-and-neck with Harvick, fell to +275 after missing pit road and sliding to 13th.

Saturday’s race at his home track, Richmond Raceway, offers some consolation for Hamlin, who has a chance to close the gap. But Hamlin has won at Richmond just once in the past decade, while two of his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates have performed much better there. Harvick, who hasn’t won at Richmond since 2013, remains a +400 NASCAR betting odds co-favorite along with Martin Truex Jr.

Eight playoff drivers have wins at Richmond, making it a crowded field of contenders. So grab some steamed oysters and a Stone IPA as you peruse these seven best bets for Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400.

Federated Auto Parts 400 Odds & Best Bets

NASCAR odds listed are current as of publication and subject to change.

Kyle Busch to Win

It has been an inconsistent, winless season for Kyle Busch, who seems to crash every other week. But nobody’s better at Richmond, with six wins, twice as many as any other active driver. Busch is finding more speed in his No. 18 car and contending more regularly. Plus he has two wins and a runner-up in his past four starts at the 0.75-mile oval. That track record, plus that value, make him tough to pass up. Get great odds on Kyle Busch to win at FanDuel.

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Martin Truex Jr. Top 3

Speaking of guys who are really good at Richmond — Truex swept both races there in 2019, extending a run of success on the track dating back to his Furniture Row Racing days. Overall, he had a run of eight straight top-four finishes snapped by last week’s wreck at Darlington, where he and Chase Elliott crashed while battling for the lead. It was a rare mistake by a driver who has been a picture of consistency since July. Bet on Truex for a Top-3 run with BetAmerica.

Denny Hamlin Top 3

Hamlin almost certainly feels some urgency after his mistake last week and will try to make up ground on a track where he has finished sixth or better in all but one start since 2015. This is a tough call between Hamlin and Harvick, but Hamlin offers slightly better value and slightly better recent results at Richmond. Both are consistently fast at Richmond, though neither has won there recently, making it somewhat of a coin flip. Wager on Hamlin with FOX Bet.

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Kevin Harvick Top Ford

Harvick deserves a place in your Richmond betting plans somewhere, and this is the spot to take him — this offers better value than choosing him to finish in the top three (+110). The Ford stable is deep, but Harvick has won two of the past three races and four of the past seven. His eight total triumphs in 2020 represent more than half of the blue oval’s haul of 15. Bank on Harvick to be the top Ford with DraftKings.

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Joe Gibbs Racing to Win

Toyotas have ruled recently at Richmond, winning four straight and seven of nine. Yet a bet on JGR to win offers slightly better value than one on Toyota, so wager on the team rather than the manufacturer. Kyle Busch and Truex have combined to sweep the last four and the last non-JGR driver to win at Richmond (Kyle Larson) isn’t even in the series anymore. Add Hamlin and JGR offers a three-headed monster to win. Back JGR at Unibet.

Alex Bowman Top Chevrolet

If you’re up for chasing some real value, do it here, on the strength of Bowman’s three straight top-six finishes. It’s the most consistent stretch of the season for the young Hendrick Motorsports driver, who never has finished better than 12th at Richmond. But no other Chevy driver offers a truly convincing argument right now. Bowman is running better than anyone else in his manufacturer’s stable and that value is tough to resist. Grab Bowman to be the top Chevy at DraftKings.

Austin Dillon Top 10

Dillon has finished ninth or better in three of his past five starts, capped by a runner-up performance at Darlington. The No. 3 car has shown a noticeable uptick in speed since July — Dillon won at Texas to earn a playoff berth and the vehicle finished seventh in the Daytona road race with Kaz Garla driving after Dillon was sidelined following a positive COVID-19 test. Dillon has also finished sixth in two of his past three races at Richmond. Take a chance on Dillon with Unibet.