David Caraviello for Bookies.com

By David Caraviello | | 15 mins

Geico 500 Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions For NASCAR at Talladega

Geico 500 Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions For NASCAR at Talladega
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Last weekend’s polarizing Bristol dirt race gave us one of the best finishes of this NASCAR season—well, unless you had +1600 Tyler Reddick or +1400 Chase Briscoe to win. There were scoring mix-ups, rain delays, front grilles so caked with Tennessee clay that a caution was needed to clean them off, and of course those last-lap spin-outs by Reddick and Briscoe that allowed famed asphalt racer Kyle Busch to slip through and win.

It’s all enough to make the capricious high banks of Talladega Superspeedway seem normal by comparison. To be certain, the next-gen car’s first foray on the 2.66-mile monster in the north Alabama hills heightens the level of unpredictability at NASCAR’s most unpredictable track. But at least the asphalt isn’t going to fly up and cause an epidemic of overheating. At least, we hope not.

Ryan Blaney at +1000 to win leads a tightly-packed group of drivers at the top of the odds board on sports betting apps, likely presaging what we’ll see Sunday afternoon on the track. Eleven different active drivers own at least one career victory at Talladega, a category led by six-time winner Brad Keselowski and which includes Bubba Wallace, who prevailed in the most recent race at the superspeedway last fall.

Geico 500 Odds

Driver WinTop 3Top 5
Ryan Blaney +1000 +250 +125
Joey Logano +1200 +280 +150
Denny Hamlin +1400 +400 +175
Chase Elliott +1400 +400 +175
Brad Keselowski +1400 +400 +175
Chase Briscoe +1400 +400 +175
Bubba Wallace +1400 +400 +174
Austin Cindric +1400 +400 +175

Odds current as of publication from DraftKings and subject to change.

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Geico 500 Betting Tips

The great roulette wheel of the NASCAR circuit, Talladega spreads the wealth and offers opportunity for drivers who might not be able to find it anywhere else. The 11 active drivers who have won there include Wallace, David Ragan, Aric Almirola and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Twenty-four active drivers have notched top-five finishes, a total that dips down to the likes of Daniel Hemric and Landon Cassill. The tight, equalizing nature of pack racing at Talladega means NASCAR betting fans will have lots of options Sunday, and more chances to cash out than in a typical race.

NASCAR odds favorite Blaney has two career Talladega wins, both since 2019. Over the last five races there, only Keselowski has scored more points, thanks to a first and second his last two times out.

Brad K has been a non-factor with the Roush team he became co-owner of prior to this season, without a top-10 since the Daytona 500. But Keselowski knows how to avoid the Big One—just one DNF in his last seven Talladega starts—and owns such a wealth of knowledge there that this might be the one place to bet on him regaining his old touch.

Stenhouse owns the best average finish (14.1) among drivers with more than 10 Talladega starts, a run that includes a runner-up result in 2020. But like Keselowski, he’s been miserable for much of this season—his best finish the past six weeks has been 27th—and backing him now would take a strong leap of faith.

Better sports betting options might be Reddick, who’s running well this season and has two seventh-place runs in four career Talladega races; Ty Dillon, who has top-10s in two of his last three, including third last fall; and William Byron, with a fourth and a second in his last three ’Dega starts.

Geico 500 Three Best Bets

William Byron to Win, +1800

Byron’s overall performance of late, combined with good runs in his last few Talladega starts, makes him hard to pass up—and that fantastic value seals it. The Hendrick pilot has been first, third and first in his last three races on asphalt oval tracks, and has shown gradual improvement at Talladega from 11th and fourth in 2020 to second last year. While teammate Chase Elliott leads the standings, you could argue that Byron is the best driver on the circuit right now.

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Tyler Reddick Top 3, +550

Third at Phoenix, fifth at Circuit of the Americas, second on the Bristol dirt—it’s hard to argue with how well Reddick is running in this new car. He’s also been very good at Talladega, with seventh-place runs in both 2020 and 2021. Even more promising, he’s starting to lead laps (like a career-high 99 last week, after 90 earlier this year at Fontana) and certainly seems to be closing in on that first career victory.

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Brad Keselowski Top Ford, +600

Take a big gulp, ignore those recent results, and find someplace for Keselowski in your betting portfolio for Talladega. Nobody of his generation has been better there, and if there’s ever a place for him to rekindle some of the old magic, this is it. Plus, you don’t give up much backing him to pace a disappointing Ford stable that has just two victories so far this season.

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Geico 500 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, April 24, 3 p.m. ET

Where: Talladega Superspeedway, Talladega, Ala.

TV: FOX

About the Author

David Caraviello for Bookies.com
David Caraviello
Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.