If former middleweight champion Gennadiy Golovkin is ever to lure Canelo Alvarez back into the ring for a third fight, he’ll absolutely have to beat up excellent 160-pound contenders like Sergey Derevyanchenko along the way.

It wouldn’t hurt matters either if he could somehow pick up a world title belt. Alvarez and Golovkin might truly hate each other after their first two epic encounters, but Alvarez really does seem like a man committed to the mission of becoming the most accomplished fighter he can possibly be.

And since greatness in boxing is most accurately measured by winning major world title belts, it probably wouldn’t hurt Golovkin’s chances to dangle the additional carrot of the world championship belt of which Alvarez never intended to release in the first place.

So things really do seem to be set up nicely for Golovkin this weekend in regards to his quest to make Canelo-Golovkin 3. That’s only the case, of course, if he can win the fight.

Golovkin vs. Derevyanchenko Betting Odds and Info

Golovkin faces Derevyanchenko on Saturday night at Madison Square Garden in New York for the vacant IBF middleweight title. The bout will be telecast live by global sports streaming network DAZN.

Golovkin is the -500 favorite per Fox Bet. That same bookmaker lists Derevyanchenko as the +333 underdog on the three-way moneyline. The draw is set at +2200.

Situationally, there are many things to like about the underdog’s chances. First, Golovkin is 37 now. He’s clearly diminished as a fighter over the last few years, doesn’t really move his head all that much and relies heavily on his ability to hurt and knock his opponents out. Derevyanchenko, on the other hand, is four years younger, a very skilled technician and hits just hard enough to score big when given the opportunity.

But Golovkin is probably the only fighter to back in this fight. He’s taller, has a longer reach and a much better resume than Derevyanchenko. Additionally, the force of his aggressive style will probably overwhelm Derevyanchenko whose only real chance in the fight stylistically is to perform perfectly early on and hope Golovkin tires late.

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Back Golovkin by Any Method at -500

Even at 37, Golovkin is one of the best fighters in boxing. While he probably gets hit way too much, his granite chin allows him to stand in front of even the best punchers in the division. Golovkin’s jab will be the key to the fight. If he lands it early and often, as is typical in a Golovkin win, he should have no problem tracking Derevyanchenko down over the course of the fight on the way to a clear Golovkin win. That’s easily the most likely thing to happen. Golovkin will jab his way to the win any way he can get it, and it will be up to Derevyanchenko to make things more interesting than that.

Bet Golvokin by KO, TKO or DQ at +114

Derevyanchenko’s only real chance to win the fight will be to outwork Golovkin over the course of 12 rounds. In order to do that, though, he’ll have to put himself in harm’s way because Golovkin has the longer reach and much better overall punching power.

Moreover, Golovkin excels at tracking down his opponents and corralling them into his powerful punches. Derevyanchenko might be able to use some fancy footwork to make things interesting for Golvokin, but as the fight goes on Golovkin will have an easier and easier time landing. Once that begins happening, Golovkin is likely to score the stoppage win. He’s one of the best finishers in boxing, after all, and getting him at +114 via bookmakers like 888sport is almost too good to be true.

Bet No on Fight To Go Distance Market at -105

Golovkin is the premier knockout machine of the last decade. More importantly, he’s an older model knockout machine which means that even if the wheels suddenly fall off he probably wouldn’t make it to the end of the fight himself.

Based on the way they priced the odds for various markets, the bookies seem to think Derevyanchenko will go the full 12 rounds with Golovkin. But that line of thinking is probably a little over-simplistic. Sure, Golovkin went the distance with Daniel Jacobs in 2017 and Canelo Alvarez both times that same year and the next.

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To his credit, Derevyanchenko did the same against Jacobs last year. But those two fighters had trained for years together at the same gym and had reportedly sparred over 300 rounds against each other.

Moreover, Derevyanchenko had to get off the canvas in the first round. Even then, the barnburner than ensued in the split-decision win for Jacobs was one that saw both fighters take a tremendous amount of clean punches to their heads and bodies.

Clean punches from Golovkin are a whole different ballgame, and Derevyanchenko won’t be able to avoid them for the long haul.