A rare pause in the golf betting calendar last week – other than Brooks Koepka’s victory over Bryson DeChambeau in The Match V – now gives way to the final big golf wagering event of 2021 at the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas.

Tournament host Tiger Woods won’t be playing this year as he continues to recover from a serious car crash nine months ago. Woods did post a swing video last week captioned “Making progress,” suggesting he may be ready to return to major golf at some point in 2022. He has a 9 a.m. ET news conference scheduled at the event on Tuesday, his first time in front of the media since the accident.

As for this week, Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa are co-favorites at sportsbooks and betting sites with +750 odds. Both players will be making their debut starts at Albany Golf Course.

Justin Thomas is third at +900 odds while Viktor Hovland (+1100) and Jordan Spieth (+1100) round out the top five.

Defending champion Henrik Stenson is last on the board with +6500 odds that are nearly twice as long as the next player on the board in Harris English (+3500). The 2020 Hero was cancelled due to COVID-19, and Stenson doesn’t have a top-10 finish since he last won here in 2019.

2021 Hero World Challenge

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review for more information.

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Hero World Challenge Historical Odds & Results

Looking at golf odds from the last five Hero World Challenge events suggest it is not the time to go value hunting.

You’ll never find much value in a 20-player field regardless, but the cream has continued to rise to the top in one of the most elite invitational fields of the year. Henrik Stenson is the only recent winner who could be described as a relative long shot, winning with +3000 odds in 2019. Other than that, we haven’t seen any winners in this event with odds longer than +1200 in recent years.

While there are always a few newer invites to the field, such as Harris English (+3500) and Tyrrell Hatton (+2800), looking at recent leaderboards tells us it’s best to stick with the top-tier players that have continually done well in this tournament.

2015

1. Bubba Watson – 10/1

2. Patrick Reed – 12/1

3. Rickie Fowler – 10/1

4. Jordan Spieth – 3/1

T5. Paul Casey – 15/1

T5. Bill Haas – 40/1

2016

1. Hideki Matsuyama – 13/2

2. Henrik Stenson – 10/1

T3. Matt Kuchar – 20/1

T3. Rickie Fowler – 15/1

T3. Dustin Johnson – 9/2

2017

1. Rickie Fowler – 8/1

2. Charley Hoffman – 30/1

T3. Tommy Fleetwood – 25/1

T3. Jordan Spieth – 6/1

T5. Hideki Matsuyama – 12/1

T5. Patrick Reed – 20/1

T5. Justin Rose – 9/1

2018

1. Jon Rahm – 12/1

2. Tony Finau – 14/1

3. Justin Rose – 7/1

4. Henrik Stenson – 25/1

T5. Patrick Cantlay – 20/1

T5. Rickie Fowler – 7/1

2019

1. Henrik Stenson – 30/1

2. Jon Rahm – 9/2

3. Patrick Reed – 16/1

4. Tiger Woods – 10/1

T5. Justin Rose – 14/1

T5. Justin Thomas – 13/2

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Hero World Challenge Expert Pick & Betting Tips

Best Bet: Justin Thomas to Win

Odds: +1000 at BetMGM

Thomas really stands out when looking at the top of the board on betting apps. He looks like a guy who’s knocking on the door for his first win since the Players back in March.

The 28-year-old has shot 70 or lower in all eight rounds to start the 2021-22 season, including four rounds in the 60s his last time out for a solo third finish at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. The putter hasn’t come around yet, but the irons have been strong and he’s familiar with the course entering his fourth start at Albany Golf Course.

Thomas finished T-5 in 2019 at 13-under-par and should go even lower this week. The results are trending up and Thomas is due for another dominant performance.

We like the odds at BetMGM with Thomas to win at +1000.

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Hero World Challenge Betting Tips

This is a resort-style course that stretches to 7,414 yards on the scorecard for the Hero. It also features a unique layout for a par-72 track, with five par-3s and five par-5s for plenty of variety throughout the round.

Longer hitters have fared well here since the tournament moved to Albany in 2015, with the likes of Bubba Watson, Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler and Jon Rahm picking up victories. All four are also elite iron players when they have the A-game, so it usually comes down to form more than anything.

That extra par-5 does help the big hitters around Albany, and the greens are pretty straightforward. We’re looking at guys with plenty of distance off the tee that have already shaken off the rust with a few quality starts this season.

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Hero World Challenge, Date & TV

When: Thursday-Sunday, Dec. 2-5

Where: Albany Golf Course, New Providence, Bahamas

TV: Golf Channel, NBC