Fifteen active NASCAR drivers have at least one career victory at Daytona International Speedway, which speaks to how unpredictable the high-banked 2.5-mile oval can be. 

The most notable exception? Chase Elliott, the Nascar odds favorite for Saturday night’s NASCAR regular-season finale, is in the unenviable position of needing a first career win at Daytona to squeeze his way into the sport’s 16-man playoff.

Clearly, bookmakers are putting a lot of stock in desperation—Elliott opened as the +1100 odds favorite for Saturday night’s event despite a career average finish at Daytona of 22.0, which incorporates crash-related DNFs in two six of his last 11 starts there, including two straight. 

The Hendrick driver was also the odds favorite last weekend on the road course at Watkins Glen, where a miscalculation by his team led him to run out of fuel in the middle of the race and finish 32nd.

Elliott in the preseason was a +500 futures wager to win the NASCAR title. Now he’s +3000 and behind 13 other drivers on the betting apps board. 

Can he win Saturday at Daytona (where he’s twice been runner-up) and get on a hot streak in the 10-race playoff? Absolutely. But there’s also a lot of dysfunction and desperation around this team right now, which from a sports betting perspective doesn’t exactly engender confidence.

NASCAR Coke Zero Sugar 400 

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Review

NASCAR Coke Zero Sugar 400 Betting Tips

Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with three career victories at Daytona (all of them in the Daytona 500), but even the best superspeedway driver of his generation can fall on tough times—like his current stretch of four straight Daytona finishes in double-digits. 

Next with two wins each are Kevin Harvick, Austin Dillon, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Harvick hasn’t won at Daytona since 2010, while Dillon is the defending champion of the 400-miler and Stenhouse pulled a stunner in the Daytona 500 to open this season.

Austin Cindric owns the best Daytona average finish among active drivers at 10.5, although that figure is calculated from a small four-race sample size that includes a Daytona 500 title in 2022 and a third-place run in the 400 that same season. 

Close behind at 13.0 is Bubba Wallace, who owns three career runner-up finishes at Daytona. Dillon’s victory last summer at Daytona is the lone bright spot in a four-race stretch at the superspeedway that’s otherwise seen him finish deep in the pack.

But then again, almost anyone can contend at Daytona, where 35 active drivers (yes, you read that right) have at least one career top-10. The 400-miler in particular has a history of producing unlikely winners—like Dillon last year, Justin Haley in 2019, Erik Jones in 2018, Aric Almirola in 2014, and David Ragan in 2011.

At the end of last summer’s wreck-filled event, Landon Cassill, Noah Gragson, Cody Ware, and B.J. McLeod were somehow all in the top 10. If there’s a week to take a chance on a longshot, this is certainly it. 

NASCAR Coke Zero Sugar 400 Best Bets

Martin Truex Jr. to Win

Odds: +2200 at DraftKings

Ridiculously favorable odds on the best driver on the circuit, one who’s finished seventh or better in six consecutive weeks and 10 of his last 12. No, Truex has never won at Daytona. But he’s certainly capable of it at a track where he’s led laps in five of his past six races. Truex is almost always in a good position at the end, which is all you can ask for at a place like Daytona.

Denny Hamlin Top 3

Odds: +400 at DraftKings

Superspeedway ace Hamlin may not have a top-10 in his past four Daytona starts, but we like how he’s been trending lately. His runner-up finish last Sunday at Watkins Glen was his fourth top-three finish in his last five starts, a span that includes a victory at superfast Pocono. With the notoriously fickle Hamlin, you take that degree of consistency when you can get it. 

Bubba Wallace Top 5

Odds: +225 at DraftKings

Wallace’s 23XI Racing car has been competitive, but not great this summer; after scoring a third straight top-10 finish in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte back on Memorial Day weekend, he’s managed just one since. But his best track remains Daytona, where he’s scored top-fives in half of his past six starts. Sixteenth in the standings heading to Daytona, Wallace will be on the playoff bubble all night. 

NASCAR Coke Zero Sugar 400 Time, Date, and TV

When: Saturday, 7 p.m. EDT

Where: Daytona International Speedway, Daytona Beach, Fla.

TV: NBC