After a first career victory by +2500 driver Daniel Suarez at Sonoma and the only off week this season, NASCAR is back, and once again presenting a vexing situation for NASCAR betting fans. Sunday’s race at Nashville Superspeedway is only the second premier-series event at the 1.33-mile tri-oval, so there’s not much past history to go on when contemplating wagers.

Kyle Larson dominated the track’s inaugural race in 2021, leading 264 of 300 laps and winning by a margin of over four seconds. Larson is again the NASCAR odds favorite on betting apps—but this season presents a completely new car, and the reigning series champ hasn’t won since Fontana in February. That remains the lone race this season won by the favorite, further evidence of the kind of unpredictable season we’re in.

Nashville has regularly hosted Xfinity and Truck races over the years, and several current Cup drivers have track experience from those circuits. But from a wagering standpoint, bettors are probably better off backing drivers and teams that have shown sustained strength throughout this season, and are best positioned to adapt quickly to a relatively new track.

Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway Race Odds

Odds via DraftKings ➜ and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

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Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway Expert Predictions

Ryan Blaney to Win, +1200

The Penske driver crashed out of last year’s inaugural Nashville race 53 laps into the event, but he’s clearly hit on something with top-10 finishes in each of his last two races. Blaney is a strong qualifier, which means he should have good starting position on a relatively unfamiliar track, and as the best driver still without a win this season, he’s overdue to visit Victory Lane.

Ross Chastain Top 3, +230

Which driver will we get: Good Ross who’s a legitimate championship contender, or Bad Ross who leaves a trail of wrecked cars in his wake? It was the latter at Gateway, the former at Sonoma, where he finished seventh. The guy has evident talent, and his team is running as well as any right now—so cross your fingers and hope for the best.

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Michael McDowell Top 10, +1000

You can get tremendous odds on sports betting apps for the Daytona 500 champion, who’s having the best season of his career thanks to a next-gen car that’s letting his underfunded team play with the big boys.

With a third at Sonoma, McDowell has now cracked the top 10 in five of his last eight starts. He even led 34 laps at Gateway until he was involved in an accident on the pit road. Regardless, there’s more than enough recent performance to justify this wager on betting sites.

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Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway Betting Tips

Larson was unstoppable last season in Nashville, leading 115 of the final 119 laps. There’s no question some of those notes will carry over to 2022, and the week off was probably good for a Hendrick Motorsports standard-bearer who’d finished 12th and 15th in his previous two starts. Larson has missed the top-10 in three of his last five dating back to Darlington, so he’s not quite the sure thing he was most of last season.

Ross Chastain finished second to Larson last year, leading four laps. He also seems to have put his wrecking ways behind him, at least for the moment, entering with back-to-back finishes of eighth or better and moving up to second in Cup Series points. The leader remains Chase Elliott, who ran 13th last year at Nashville (but was later DQ’d due to loose lugnuts found in the post-race inspection), and has finished 21st or worse in three of his last four starts this season.

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So who’s running best right now? Kyle Busch and Christopher Bell each saw long top-10 streaks end in spins at Sonoma, but events on a road course should have no bearing on a tri-oval this week. Ryan Blaney has gone fourth and sixth in his past two starts, while Kevin Harvick has been fourth or better in three of his last five. But no driver has an active streak of three straight top-10s right now, further proof of the parity we’re seeing in NASCAR.

Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, June 26, 5 p.m. ET

Where: Nashville Superspeedway, Lebanon, Tennessee

TV: NBC