With six races remaining in the season, Kyle Larson has established himself as the +450 NASCAR odds favorite to claim the NASCAR Cup Series title. But first, the Hendrick Motorsports driver has to get through one of his worst tracks—big, bad Talladega Superspeedway, where the Big One lurks around every 180 mph corner.

On tracks where Larson has competed more than once, Talladega is where the 2021 series champion has his worst average finish—22.8. He’s never won there, has placed in the top-five only once in 19 career starts, and has finished in double-digits in 12 of his past 13 outings on the 2.66-mile behemoth an hour east of Birmingham.

No wonder, then, Larson opened tied for eighth in odds to win Sunday’s 500-miler at Talladega, well behind favorites Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, and Brad Keselowski. If he gets through Sunday, Larson has some great tracks coming up that could bolster his title chances. But first comes Talladega, which always threatens to jumble a playoff field that will be cut from 12 drivers to eight in two weeks.

NASCAR YellaWood 500 At Talladega Odds

Odds via bet365 Sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our bet365 Sportsbook Review

Keselowski leads all active, full-time drivers with six wins at Talladega, the most recent coming in 2021 with his former Penske Racing team. His current Roush-powered car has shown good performance there, too, placing second and fifth in the past two spring races. Logano and Blaney each own three career Talladega victories, but Logano’s most recent came back in 2018. Blaney won this race last year to power his run to the title and has placed first or second in three of his last four starts at the Alabama track.

Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, and Kyle Busch round out the active multiple-race winners at Talladega with two each, the most recent of those triumphs belonging to Busch in this event two seasons ago. Tyler Reddick led the final six laps to win the spring race at Talladega, only his third single-digit finish on the big track in nine career starts. Among drivers who have started more than one race there, the circuit’s best average finish at Talladega belongs to Todd Gilliland—a 12.8 built on three top-10s in five career starts.

Gilliland finished eighth in the spring race at Talladega, another example of how to level the playing field is on a superspeedway where aerodynamics can mean more than driver skill. In short—find yourself in the right lane at the right time, you can ride that moving column of air to the front. That’s how Anthony Alfredo finished sixth at Talladega in April, how Carson Hocevar finished 10th there last fall, and how a handful of other value-laden surprises have found their way to Victory Lane.

Ryan Blaney to Win

NASCAR Odds: +900 with bet365 Sportsbook

The defending series champion is among the odds favorites at Talladega for a reason—nobody has the place figured out better right now. Since Blaney broke through with his first Talladega victory in late 2019, his average finish at the track is 8.7, with only one DNF (short for Did Not Finish). That’s an amazing degree of consistency at a very capricious track. It also helps that Blaney is running very well now, finishing sixth or better in three of his last four starts overall.

William Byron Top 3

NASCAR Odds: +400 with bet365 Sportsbook

Byron hasn’t been great, but he’s been good enough as of late to hold a slim lead over Blaney in the championship standings, helped by his runner-up finish at Kansas Speedway last week. The rub on the Hendrick driver is that he hasn’t won since April, and this title format rewards winning more than anything else. But Byron’s Talladega record remains strong enough—he’s been seventh, second and seventh his last three times out—to suggest he can be among the contenders on Sunday.

Todd Gilliland Top 10

NASCAR Odds: +190 with bet365 Sportsbook

On a track where Aric Almirola, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and David Ragan have won, it makes sense to take surprises into account. Gilliland hasn’t been much of a factor this season, scoring four top-10s with a best finish of sixth at Indianapolis. But goodness, can he run at Talladega. Gilliland’s Front Row Motorsports team (which also won at Talladega with Ragan a decade ago) hasn’t finished worse than 12th at the big track since his debut there. He may not lead laps, but he keeps his nose clean, which means a lot at a track where lots of cars finish hooked to a wrecker.

NASCAR Quaker State 400 3 Best Bets

Brad Keselowski to Win

Odds: +1100 at Bet365

The first real glimmer of progress for Keselowski with his new Roush-affiliated team came at Atlanta in the spring of 2023, when he led 47 laps and finished second. He went on to finish sixth that fall, and is now back in the playoffs with his new organization. Keselowski has been very steady of late, with top-10s in two of his last three starts overall, and his renowned prowess on superspeedways should serve him well at Atlanta—now a miniature version of the real thing.

Kyle Busch Top 3

Nascar Odds: +275 at Bet365

The defending series champion is among the odds favorites at Talladega for a reason—nobody has the place figured out better right now. Since Blaney broke through with his first Talladega victory in late 2019, his average finish at the track is 8.7, with only one DNF (short for Did Not Finish). That’s an amazing degree of consistency at a very capricious track. It also helps that Blaney is running very well now, finishing sixth or better in three of his last four starts overall.

Christopher Bell Top 5

Odds: +250 at Bet365

Bell has quietly sneaked up to second behind Kyle Larson in the championship standings, thanks to a run of consistency that kicked off with his rain-shortened victory at Charlotte over Memorial Day weekend. Since then he’s been top-10 in nine of 13 starts, including back-to-back thirds at Daytona and Darlington. Bell also finished third on the reconfigured Atlanta layout in the spring of 2023. 

NASCAR Quaker State 400 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 3 p.m. EDT

Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Hampton, Ga.

TV: USA