In NASCAR’s championship race, the final four is set. Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, and Ryan Blaney won the past three events to punch their tickets to the title round, where they’ll be joined at Phoenix Raceway by William Byron, who got there on points. The top finisher among that quartet in Sunday’s 312-lapper claims the Cup Series crown.

Given the critical importance of finishing first under this championship format, it’s no surprise that the eventual champion has won the finale in nine of the past 10 seasons. The exception came last year when titlist Ryan Blaney finished second to Ross Chastain, who wasn’t in the running for the crown. Twice in the past six seasons, Logano has won the last race to also take the title—in 2022 at Phoenix, and in 2018 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

So it would seem highly likely, at the least, that the winner of Sunday’s race comes from the pool of four contenders still eligible for the title. Of that group, Byron has enjoyed the best finishing kick, placing sixth or better in each of his six starts—though he hasn’t won since April. Blaney meanwhile comes in red hot, finishing first and second the past two races, with his victory at Martinsville Speedway last weekend clinching his berth in the Championship 4. Find out who is favored to win in NASCAR odds. 

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds

Odds via bet365 Sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our bet365 Sportsbook Review

Logano is one of three active, full-time drivers tied for the Phoenix win lead with three, along with Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. But those three victories are spread out over eight seasons, with the most recent coming in his 2022 title-clincher. Among the four title contenders, Blaney owns the best Phoenix average finish at 10.9, good enough for second among active drivers behind Hamlin.

Blaney has never won at Phoenix in 17 career starts, but he’s finished second at the D-shaped track in three of his past four starts there. Byron won at Phoenix in the spring of 2023 and owns seven top-10s there in 13 career starts. Reddick has never won at Phoenix, and has placed in the top 10 in just three of his nine career starts there, though he has finished as high as third twice—in the 2022 and 2023 spring races, respectively.

Is there anyone from outside the championship field who could pull the kind of shocker that Chastain did last year? Hamlin is excellent at Phoenix, and despite missing the title round he’s been top 10 in six of his last seven starts. Christopher Bell won the spring Phoenix race, and had been seventh or better in six straight before a poor Martinsville finish ruined his title hopes. Kyle Larson also won a season-best six times before fading in the final weeks.

Ryan Blaney to Win

NASCAR Odds: +400 with bet365 Sportsbook

The last Cup Series driver to win back-to-back titles was the great Jimmie Johnson, who claimed three straight between 2008 and 2010. But that said, none of the title contenders are running as well overall and as well at Phoenix as Blaney, who’s gone 1-2 over his last two starts this season and 5-2-2-2-4-4 over his past six on the desert oval. And the value is still fairly good for sports bettors even though Blaney is the odds favorite on Sunday.

Joey Logano Top 3

NASCAR Odds: +190 with bet365 Sportsbook

Unlike his Penske teammate Blaney, Logano has been more hit-and-miss down the stretch—his win in Las Vegas, which clinched his berth in the Championship 4, is one of just two single-digit finishes in his last eight starts. It’s a similar story for Logano at Phoenix, where he hasn’t finished in the top 10 since his most recent victory there in 2022. But the savvy veteran has twice been in this situation and twice delivered, fostering degrees of comfort and confidence that can only help Sunday.

Christopher Bell Top 5

NASCAR Odds: +130 with bet365 Sportsbook

If there’s any driver who can crash the championship party the way Chastain did last season, it’s Bell, who was in the running for a berth in the title field until last week. Bell led 50 laps on his way to winning the spring race at Phoenix and owns four other top-10s in nine career starts there. Bell has also finished seventh or better in nine of his past 11 starts, with a pair of runner-up finishes among them. No doubt, he’ll roll off the starting grid Sunday, believing he has something to prove.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 3 p.m. EST

Where: Phoenix Raceway, Avondale, Ariz.

TV: NBC