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NASCAR Toyota/SaveMart 350 Predictions: Free Expert Picks & Best Bets For This Weekend

David Caraviello for Bookies.com

David Caraviello  | 19 mins

NASCAR Toyota/SaveMart 350 Predictions: Free Expert Picks & Best Bets For This Weekend

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NASCAR heads to Northern California for its second road race of the season, kicking off a summer that will be full of both right and left turns—in addition to this week at Sonoma Raceway, there’s the inaugural Chicago street race in early July, and Indianapolis and Watkins Glen in August. 

These types of events are more than just fun for viewers; they can also be profitable on betting apps, given that they potentially open the door to the type of winners we don’t see every week.

That was surely the case in Sonoma a year ago, when Daniel Suarez led the final 26 laps to capture his first victory on NASCAR’s top circuit. 

Three-time road course winner Tyler Reddick opened as the NASCAR betting odds favorite, ahead of four-time road winner Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott, whose seven road course victories are more than any other active driver—although none of those triumphs have come at Sonoma.

No two road courses are alike, and Sonoma with its elevation changes and rolling “esses” is much more of a rhythm track than higher-speed layouts in Indy and Watkins Glen. 

Clearly, it was a good fit for Suarez, who last season paced an eclectic top-five that also included Chris Buescher, Michael McDowell, and Austin Cindric. Be on the lookout for more unlikely contenders amid the caramel-colored hills of Wine Country this time around as well.

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Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook Review.

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Betting Tips

Gone are the days when road racing was a niche specialty—these days, just about every elite Cup driver is very good at it. Martin Truex Jr. leads all active drivers with three career victories in Sonoma, the most recent coming in 2018. 

Truex is also in the midst of a strong stretch overall, with four top-10s in his last five points races, the most recent a fifth-place outing last weekend at Gateway. And he opened with terrific value as a +4000 option—though why his odds are that favorable, we’re not sure.

Kyle Busch owns two career Sonoma victories and had a streak of six straight top-10s at the road course snapped last season. Like Truex, Busch is another former champion who heads to Northern California running very well, with three straight top-10s capped by a win at Gateway. 

Among the three active drivers with one Sonoma victory is Larson, who won there in 2021, and returned to form with a fourth-place finish last week at Gateway after results of 20th and 30th in his previous two points events.

Kevin Harvick also owns one Sonoma victory, that coming in 2017, and has been top-10 in six of his last seven races in Northern California. Suarez’s victory last year marked his first finish better than 12th at Sonoma, and his seventh-place finish last week at Gateway was his best since February. 

As for higher-value options, Cindric (opened at +2000) placed fifth in his Sonoma debut last season, and Ryan Blaney (+3500? Really?) has been top-10 in four of his last five in Wine Country.

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Toyota/Save Mart 350 Best Bets

Ryan Blaney to Win

Odds: +3500 at DraftKings

Seriously, if the books are giving you that kind of value on one of the hottest drivers in NASCAR, you take it. 

Blaney has been top-10 in six of his last seven races this season, he finally cast off the yoke of his long winless streak with a triumph in the 600-miler in Charlotte, and he’s been consistently good at Sonoma with a third, 10th and sixth his last three times out. He even owns a road course victory, which came on the Charlotte Roval in 2018. 

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Tyler Reddick Top 3

Odds: +130 at DraftKings

Elliott may be the best road course racer of his generation, but Reddick has been better as of late, with victories in three of the last six road races on NASCAR’s top circuit. One of those came earlier this season at Circuit of the Americas, where Reddick ran away over the final 12 laps. 

While Sonoma isn’t his best track—he’s never finished better than 19th there—his overall road race results speak for themselves, and he was top-10 in three of his last four races before being involved in an early crash last week.

Martin Truex Jr. Top 5

Odds: +400 at DraftKings

Another driver with odds that are a real head-scratcher—but again, not we’re going to pass it up. Yes, Truex cratered to 26th last year in the first Sonoma race in the next-gen car, but he’d also finished first, first and third his previous three times at the track. 

Truex owns four road course wins overall, and with top-10s in six of his last eight outings this season, he looks more and more like a serious championship threat with every passing race.

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. EDT

Where: Sonoma (Calif.) Raceway

TV: FOX

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About the Author

David Caraviello for Bookies.com
David Caraviello
Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.