Who Will Be the Next Pope? Odds & Betting Favorites; Black Smoke Flies At Conclave

The secret conclave to replace the late Pope Francis began Wednesday as black smoke billowed above the Sistine Chapel. That means the first vote to become the next Pontiff failed. The conclave and the voting resume Thursday.  

The next Pope will lead more than 1.4 billion Roman Catholics around the world. Pope Francis, who died April 21 at the age of 88, made history as the first pontiff from the Americas. 

His successor could come from Asia, Europe, Africa, or even the United States.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle have emerged as the favorites in betting and prediction markets to replace Pope Francis. 

How the Next Pope Will Be Chosen

Pope Francis led the Church for 12 years. The conclave includes 133 Cardinals in Rome. The conclave takes place inside the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican. Cardinals over the age of 80 are not eligible to vote. 

Ballots are burned after each round of voting. 

During the conclave, cardinals cast ballots four times per day after one vote on Day 1. After 30 rounds of voting, only the top two vote-getters remain. The eventual winner must secure a two-thirds majority plus one to become the next Pope.

Francis appointed more than 80% of the cardinals who will vote, giving the conclave a distinctly Francis-era tone. However, many insiders believe the next pontiff may take a more conservative approach compared to his predecessor.

These odds are for entertainment purposes only and are not available on any legal U.S. sports betting app.

Top Contenders To Be Next Pope

While legal U.S. sportsbooks such as DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM do not offer odds on the papal selection, it hasn’t stopped speculation from circulating. 

Kalshi, a regulated prediction market in the U.S., opened its prediction market. As of Wednesday, more than $7.518 million worth of trades had been placed. However, novelty betting on current events—including the next Pope—is legal in some jurisdictions such as Ontario and UK. 

As was the case when Pope Francis was elected, there is no runaway favorite to emerge from the upcoming conclave. Here’s a look at five leading candidates:

🟢 Cardinal Pietro Parolin (70) – Italy +250 

As the Vatican Secretary of State under Francis, Parolin was the architect of much of the Church’s foreign policy. He is widely seen as a skilled diplomat and power broker—two traits critical in navigating a conclave. He is also considered the most likely European choice.

🟢 Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (67) – Philippines +300 

Often referred to as the “Asian Francis,” Tagle is viewed as a progressive voice who could continue the policies of his predecessor. His deep humility and global perspective could make him an appealing option. A pope from Asia would also energize the fastest-growing region in the Catholic world.

🟢 Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (60) – Italy +900

The best name of any Cardinal in the field, Pizzaballa boasts humble roots similar to Pope Francis. He is the youngest of any of the potential pontiffs here and has gained notoriety for his calls for peace in Gaza. 

🟢 Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (69) – Italy +900

Cardinal Zuppi was born in Rome. He played a key role in peace-keeping efforts during the reign of Pope Francis. He leans to the left of center but could well emerge as a compromise choice if voting becomes and extended process. 

🟢 Cardinal Péter Erdő (72) – Hungary +1000

Erdő represents a more conservative vision for the future of the Church. A staunch traditionalist, he has spoken out against accepting refugees into Hungary and has the backing of many who want to steer the Church back toward more orthodox practices.

🟢 Cardinal Peter Turkson (76) – Ghana +1000

Turkson would become the first pope from Africa. He was elevated to cardinal by Pope John Paul II and became a close advisor to Francis on economic and environmental issues. His globalist outlook and deep experience could appeal to both progressives and traditionalists.