After a value-laden result in the Daytona 500, NASCAR betting fans were brought down to earth last weekend when odds favorite Kyle Larson won the season’s second race in Southern California. It was the fifth victory in seven races dating back to last year for Larson, whose odds of becoming NASCAR’s first back-to-back champion since 2007 improved to +250 on betting apps.

And, shocker—look at who’s the NASCAR odds favorite for Sunday’s event at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, where Larson is defending race champion, and stunners rarely occur. The closest LVMS has ever had to a real surprise winner was when Kurt Busch triumphed in 2020 thanks in large part to a late-race caution that jumbled the field, but even he’s a former champion behind the wheel of a very capable car.

This season already feels worlds away from last year, when Michael McDowell and Christopher Bell claimed the first two races to set the table for a series of long-shot winners. There’s still value to be found at top betting sites, but it’s deeper in the field, as the likes of Austin Dillon and Daniel Suarez showed at Fontana. The challenge of adjusting to this next-gen car (and its strangely disabling tire issues) hasn’t translated to parity at the top—at least, not yet.

Pennzoil 400 Odds To Back

Odds listed are current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review and the latest Pennzoil 400 odds.

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Pennzoil 400 Betting Tips

Brad Keselowski leads all active drivers with three career victories at Las Vegas, but all three of those triumphs came with Penske Racing—and Keselowski, now co-owner of a Roush team that’s struggled to compete over the past few seasons, didn’t instill much confidence with a 27th-place result last week at Fontana. The best average finish at the 1.5-mile track belongs to two-time winner Joey Logano, whose 8.6 is just a hair better than the 8.8 of Penske teammate Ryan Blaney.

Outside of Keselowski and Logano, six other active drivers have victories at Las Vegas, most notable Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr., with two each. Truex’s two victories come in a nine-race stretch dating back to 2017 where he’s finished worse than eighth just once, placing in the top-five six times over that span. Harvick, meanwhile, has been up and down since his last LVMS victory in 2018, and is riding a 46-race winless skid overall.

Denny Hamlin won the playoff event at Las Vegas last fall, and has now finished third, fourth and first in his last three races in Sin City. Even though he hasn’t won there, Blaney has been consistently solid with top-fives in five of his last eight starts. Tyler Reddick’s low odds stem from his sixth-place finish at Las Vegas last fall, while Erik Jones has three career top-10s on the 1.5-mile layout.

Pennzoil 400 Best Bets

Kyle Larson to Win

Odds: +500 at DraftKings

Yeah, we’re going there. Larson is now a tried-and-true winner in a next-gen car that a lot of drivers are still trying to figure out, and he’s excellent at Las Vegas, where he’s notched top-10s in seven of his last eight starts. Plus, we’ll absolutely take that value on the best driver in the sport, thank you very much.

Joey Logano Top Ford

Odds: +200 at DraftKings

Our pick to win at Fontana was in the mix, but finished fifth after leading 14 laps. His No. 2 car should be the class of the blue oval brigade at Las Vegas, where Logano has won twice since 2019 and finished outside the top 10 just twice since 2014.

Martin Truex Jr. Top Three

Odds: +310 at DraftKings

The Gibbs driver has been steady if unspectacular with a pair of 13th-place finishes to open the season, and there have been no alarm bells regarding his transition to the new car. As mentioned earlier, he’s been great at Vegas, with an average finish of fifth since 2017.

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Pennzoil 400 Time, Date & TV

When: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET

Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: FOX