Two of the last three races on NASCAR’s premier series have produced a first-time winner, with Tyler Reddick’s debut victory last week at Road America following Daniel Suarez’s maiden triumph at Sonoma. Both of those breakthroughs occurred on road courses—can the trend continue on one of the oldest intermediate layouts in the sport?

That will be the question NASCAR betting fans will be asking on Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway, where NASCAR has competed since 1960.

There are a few caveats, though: Atlanta was tweaked with steeper banking and a new coat of asphalt prior to a March event that William Byron won by a whisker over Ross Chastain. This week also marks the first time NASCAR has returned to a track a second time this season, meaning teams will have lots of notes relevant to the next-gen car.

Savvy veteran Kurt Busch leads all active drivers with four career wins at Atlanta, while Chase Elliott owns the best average finish at 12.6. The top candidate on betting apps for a first career victory this weekend? Maybe Corey Lajoie, who was fifth at Atlanta in the spring.

Let's take a look at the NASCAR odds for this race.

Quaker State 400 Race Odds

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

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Quaker State 400 Betting Tips

Kurt Busch’s four career Atlanta victories have been spread out over his entire career, with the first coming in 2002 and the most recent last fall.

He also finished third there in March, part of a resurgent 2022 in which he's won at Kansas, finished third at Gateway, and placed second at Nashville—all within the past six weeks. Kevin Harvick owns three career Atlanta wins, the most recent in late 2020, but is also on a winless skid now totaling 61 consecutive race weeks.

Two-time Atlanta winner Brad Keselowski seems a non-starter for bettors given the struggles he’s endured in his first season with Roush. The final multiple Atlanta winner is two-time titlist Kyle Busch, whose most recent victory in Hampton came in 2017. After a torrid spring, though, Busch has hit some serious road blocks by finishing 30th, 21st and 29th his last three times out.

Chase Elliott has a top-eight finish in three of his last four starts at Atlanta, though he’s never won there. Ryan Blaney had a run of three straight top-five finishes, including a victory, interrupted by a 17th-place run in March. And then there are the drivers who have shown Atlanta performance in this new car: Byron led 111 laps en route to winning there in March, when Chastain, Daniel Suarez, Kurt Busch, Chris Buescher and Joey Logano all showed an ability to run toward the front.

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Quaker State 400 Predictions

Chase Elliott to Win

Odds: +1000

It’s past time for Georgia’s favorite son to earn his first victory at the closest thing to his home track. As mentioned earlier, Elliott has been consistently fast at Atlanta, even if he doesn’t yet have a victory to show for it. It’s also very hard to argue with recent performance after seeing Elliott finish eighth, first and second the past three weeks.

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Kurt Busch Top 5

Odds: +350

Throw out the road courses, and the elder Busch brother has finished worse than third just once in his last four oval-track starts, the exception caused by a wreck at Charlotte. Watching him outduel Kyle Larson at Kansas showed that the 43-year-old’s still got it, and Busch is excellent at Atlanta, where he has just one finish worse than eighth in his last eight starts.

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Michael McDowell Top 10

Odds: +160

OK, maybe we’re feeling it a little on betting sites after hitting both Tyler Reddick top Chevy (+1500) and Chase Elliott and Ross Chastain each to finish top-five (+300) last week at Road America. But have you noticed what McDowell has done lately? His eighth-place run at Road America was his sixth top-10 in his last 10 starts, making him totally worth the moderate risk.

Quaker State 400 Date, Time and TV

When: Sunday, 3:00 p.m.

Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Hampton, Ga.

TV: USA

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