By David Caraviello | | 18 mins
Toyota Owners 400 Odds, Picks & Predictions For NASCAR At Richmond
This is how topsy-turvy things have become in the world of NASCAR betting: Ross Chastain and Tyler Reddick carry the same odds on betting apps this week at Richmond Raceway as Denny Hamlin—an annual championship contender who’s won three times previously on what’s considered his home track.
Of course, anything seems possible this season, which has so far produced one long-odds winner after another, a streak that continued with the Victory Lane debut of +2500 pick Ross Chastain last weekend at Circuit of the Americas. Chastain became the fifth winner in six races carrying odds of +1200 or longer, with Kyle Larson at Fontana so far standing as the lone favorite to prevail.
Toyota Owners 400 Odds
|Driver||Win||Top 3||Top 5|
|Martin Truex Jr.||+1000||+275||-110|
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Toyota Owners 400 Betting Tips
While Chase Elliott has been good at Richmond, with top-five runs in two of his last three starts on the .75-mile oval, he’s likely the NASCAR odds favorite because of how he’s running overall—his worst finish over the past month has been 11th.
No active driver has better career stats at Richmond than Kyle Busch, with a series-leading six victories and only one result out of the top nine since 2014. But his performance in the new car thus far has been uneven, with results of 33rd and 28th the past two weeks.
The real driver to watch here is Martin Truex Jr., who’s won three of the last five Richmond races and has top-10s in three of his last four starts overall. But outside of that, it might behoove bettors to look more at recent performance rather than past history at specific tracks. Consider that outside of Busch, the drivers with the best career track records at Richmond are Harvick (on a 48-race winless skid) and Hamlin (no top-10s so far).
That leads us back to Chastain, who is absolutely thriving in this new car, and on a career run that’s seen him finish third, second, second and first the past four weeks. That leads to Reddick, who’s finished seventh or better in three of his last four.
That leads to Alex Bowman, who has a first and a second so far this season, and Daniel Suarez, with top-10s in three of his last five. Drivers like that may not win every week, but thus far they’re certainly making their presence felt.
Toyota Owners 400 Three Best Bets
Martin Truex Jr. to Win
Odds: +1000 at DraftKings
Truex has been so dominant at Richmond, with three race wins and nearly 700 laps led since 2018, that this type of value almost seems an oversight. So take it while you can, especially given that the Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been solid enough with finishes of eighth, eighth and seventh over the past four weeks. He hasn’t won, but he also doesn’t look like a guy struggling to get a handle on this new car.
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Ross Chastain Top 3
Odds: +360 at FanDuel
Ride the wave, baby. The combination of this new car and a new team (Trackhouse, which bought Chip Ganassi’s assets) has unleashed the talent that was always evident inside Chastain. The past four weeks have brought a road course, a 1-mile oval, and two 1.5-mile intermediate tracks, and Chastain has been awesome on all of them. Why should a .75-mile short track (where he finished seventh last fall) be any different?
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Daniel Suarez Top 5
Odds: +525 at BetMGM
We’re backing both the Trackhouse boys this week, given how well they’ve run so far. Like his teammate Chastain, Suarez has been competitive on all types of tracks this year, even if he really hasn’t been in a position to win. Suarez’s recent performance complements a Richmond history that’s produced a trio of top-10 finishes.
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Toyota Owners 400 Time, Date & TV
When: Sunday, April 3, 3:30 p.m. ET
Where: Richmond Raceway, Richmond, Va.