Toyota Save Mart 350 Odds & Picks for NASCAR at Sonoma

Is Chase Elliott still the king of NASCAR road races? That’s not exactly the no-brainer it once was, given that the Hendrick Motorsports driver has won just two of the seven road events contested on NASCAR’s top circuit over the past two seasons.

Elliott’s teammate Kyle Larson has actually won one more road race over that span, and is the defending champion at Sonoma Raceway, the Northern California layout that NASCAR visits on Sunday. Sonoma, in fact, is one of the few road courses where Elliott has never won. But his resume—seven career victories on road courses, easily best among active drivers—is tough to ignore, a big reason why Elliott is the NASCAR betting favorite this week.

But the pool of contenders on betting apps is getting deeper. The past five NASCAR road races have been won by four different drivers, with A.J. Allmendinger and Ross Chastain joining Elliott and Larson. Tyler Reddick and Austin Cindric flexed some road-course muscle at Circuit of the Americas, where Chastain triumphed in March. Elliott may be the NASCAR odds favorite, but the days when he could win four straight road races (as he did from 2019 to 2020) appear over.

Toyota Save Mart 350 Odds

Odds current as of publication from BetMGM and subject to change.

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Toyota Save Mart 350 Expert Picks and Predictions

Kyle Busch to Win, +1000

That second victory of the season has got to be around the corner, right? Busch is simply running too well for it to avoid him for very much longer. Outside of a crash at Darlington, the Joe Gibbs driver has been on an absolute tear since March. And check out his last six starts at Sonoma: First, seventh, fifth, fifth, second and fifth. We like these odds at DraftKings for Busch to win.

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Kyle Larson top 3, +180

It’s a close call, but we’re going with Larson over teammate Elliott here given his superior track record at Sonoma, where he’s been consistently fast—Larson has started four straight races there from the pole, and has never started outside of the top five.

His victory last year is his only single-digit finish at the track, but we have enough faith in his road course performance in Hendrick cars to go with him on betting sites this week anyway.

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Austin Cindric top Ford, +350

He may have won the Daytona 500, but road racing is what Cindric has historically done best. The Penske driver was ninth in last year’s Indianapolis Grand Prix in a one-off, and eighth earlier this season at COTA, where he led 11 laps.

Five of his 13 Xfinity Series victories came on road courses, as did his lone Truck Series triumph.

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Toyota Save Mart 350 Betting Tips

Just five active drivers have victories at Sonoma, led by Martin Truex Jr. with three. Truex led 42 laps in the inaugural Cup Series event last week at Gateway, but faded toward the end and wasn’t a threat to contend at the finish—the story of his season thus far. Meanwhile, two-time Sonoma winner Kyle Busch continues to run more consistently than anyone right now, finishing third, second and second the past few weeks.

Larson, Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch are the only other past Sonoma winners still racing today. Among drivers with at least 10 starts there, Harvick and Busch are tied for the best career average finish at Sonoma, 13.2. Harvick, though, is in the midst of an epic winless skid and is tough to back right now. The elder Busch continues to churn out strong finishes like his third-place result last week at Gateway, and he’s been top-10 in nine of his last 10 Sonoma starts.

One wild card might be Erik Jones, who’s been seventh, eighth and 11th in the past three races at Sonoma, the latter result coming in the same Richard Petty equipment he’s in now. Denny Hamlin, better at road courses than he gets credit for, has been top-10 in five straight in Sonoma. Chastain won at COTA and was seventh in Sonoma last year—but he has multiple targets on his back after the wrecks he caused last week at Gateway, and the Wine Country layout offers numerous corners for his enemies to take revenge.

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Toyota Save Mart 350 Time, Date & TV

When: Sunday, June 12 at 4 p.m. ET

Where: Sonoma (Calif.) Raceway

TV: FS1