Jon Rahm showed why he was the +350 favorite entering last week’s Mexico Open, taking down the filed by one shot for his first win since the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. Now things are starting to get serious with three major championships on deck in the coming months.

The road to Southern Hills continues at this week’s Wells Fargo Championship, which will resemble the long-standing event in name only - usual host Quail Hollow Club is unavailable while continuing preparations ahead of the 2022 Presidents Cup in Charlotte.

TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm serves as the placeholder in Maryland and we do have some history to go off for golf betting. The course hosted a regular Tour event from 1987-2006 and recently held the Quicken Loans National in 2017-18.

Rory McIlroy is the betting favorite at +850 in what will be his first start since a solo second finish at the Masters.

Canada’s Corey Conners is next on the board at betting sites and betting apps, listed at +1600 as he continues to look for his first win since the 2019 Valero Texas Open.

A strong foursome rounds out the top of the board - Tyrrell Hatton, Marc Leishman, Russell Henley and Matthew Fitzpatrick are all teeing off with golf odds of +2000.

2022 Wells Fargo Championship Odds

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2022 Wells Fargo Championship Picks & Predictions

Ryan Armour Top-10 Finish

Odds: +1600 at DraftKings ➜

We hit on a Cameron Champ top-10 finish at +600 odds last week and are looking much further down the board for the Wells Fargo.

Ryan Armour is still going strong at age 46. He posted four top-10s last season and is showing promise again, finishing T-36 or better in four of his last seven starts. This is one of the few courses left on Tour where a guy like Armour can realistically compete, and it’s no surprise that he finished solo second with four consecutive rounds of 68 or better at this course in 2018.

Armour ranks first off the tee in accuracy and still posts strong numbers with the irons. The short game is the big struggle, but that shouldn’t matter as much this week. Any number of extreme longshots could pop up near the top of the board here. We’re banking on Armour getting into contention. We’re on Armour top-10 finish with +1600 odds at DraftKings.

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2022 Wells Fargo Championship Betting Tips

Obviously, we want to ignore tournament history and focus entirely on course history. It tells us players could be in for a four-day grind at a course that has yielded some of the higher scores in recent memory.

Kyle Stanley won here with a score of 7-under for the week back in 2017. Francesco Molinari crushed the field in 2018 and finished 21-under the last time the Tour was in Potomac, but that was eight shots higher than runner-up Ryan Armour.

Trouble off the tee is a big reason for those relatively high scores. There’s plenty of water in play and a lot of areas where you just can’t miss. That’s trouble for a lot of the bomb-and-gougers who won’t see an exaggerated advantage with their distance this week.

Strokes Gained Approach the Green is a top indicator of performance, even more so than most weeks. But accuracy off the tee seems to be the most important stat when looking at past tournaments here, and players fighting their driver on every hole probably won’t be around for the weekend.

There’s some significant rain in the forecast along with moderate wind and cool temperatures over the weekend. We’re not too concerned with putting stats given the potentially-soft greens, and the best ballstrikers should be able to attack some of these pins assuming they’re in a good spot in the fairway.

Overall, we’re looking at accurate drivers and strong irons players , with distance and short game a secondary concern this week.

2022 Wells Fargo Championship, Date & TV

When: Thursday-Sunday, May 5-May 8

Where: TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, Potomac, Maryland

TV: Golf Channel, CBS

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