XFL Week 3 Predictions, Picks & Best Bets For Every Game

By Adam Thompson

Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EDT

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Week 2 of the 2023 XFL season proved to be, well, different than Week 1. In short, there were less close games and less scoring.

In Week 1, three of the four games were decided by four points or fewer. The freedom to choose extra points ranging from 1-3 points was just getting figured out by coaches.

Week 2 was different. Only one game had a margin of victory of less than eight points. When it came to scoring, the average total dropped from 40 points in the opening week to just 34.8.

Every week and every matchup is fresh, but trends are important as well when wagering on betting apps.

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson is a perfect 4-0 picking XFL games this season. He breaks down the XFL Week 3 schedule and offers his XFL best bets below.

XFL Week 3 Picks

Date	Matchup	Picks
Sat March 4	Seattle Sea Dragons at Vegas Vipers	Under 38.5 Points
Sun March 5	St. Louis BattleHawks at D.C. Defenders	Defenders -2
Sun March 5	Orlando Guardians at Arlington Renegades	Renegades ML (-425)
Sun March 5	San Antonio Brahmas at Houston Roughnecks	Roughnecks -4

Odds accurate at time of publication

Saturday, March 4

Seattle Sea Dragons at Vegas Vipers (+3, 38.5)

Vegas has a defense that’s allowing under 20 ppg and an offense that has scored two touchdowns in two weeks. Good defense, plus bad offense leans us toward Unders. Seattle has been a turnover prone bunch, one that can’t be counted on to hold onto a lead.

This game is the highest total of the week, but it’s a clash of offenses that can’t be relied upon and defenses that have been put into bad situations by the offenses. Neither team really has a penchant for scoring, yet this is the highest total of the weekend. Go figure.

Pick: Under 38.5 Points

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Sunday, March 5

St. Louis BattleHawks at D.C. Defenders (-2, 37)

A matchup of unbeatens, though St. Louis is 2-0 with a point differential of +5. They trailed by 12 points in both instances before rallying for victories. In each game, however, they were outgained, and against the Brahmas in Week 1, they were thoroughly outplayed.

D.C. can’t throw the ball, but it hasn’t had to. St. Louis has mostly struggled vs. the run. That makes for a good matchup on that side of the ball for the Defenders. That they’ve allowed just 12 ppg so far doesn’t hurt.

Pick: Defenders -2

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Orlando Guardians at Arlington Renegades (-8.5, 37)

Orlando looks to be a mess through two games. In a league full of nailbiters and designed to keep games close, the Guardians have been blown out twice, by 21 and by 18. Now the coach is already flip-flopping between QBs, so as other teams feel themselves out and get better playing together, Orlando lags.

Arlington is 1-1, edging out Vegas before losing 23-14 to a strong Houston squad. Arlington only has 36 points through two games. Orlando, with 12 points in both losing efforts, can’t score either. But everyone so far has gone off against the Guardians. This spread is a big one for an XFL game based on what we know and have seen so far. We’re playing it ultra safe here on sports betting sites.

Pick: Renegades ML (-425) , perhaps parlayed with other picks

San Antonio Brahmas at Houston Roughnecks (-4, 36.5)

The Roughnecks are scoring 28 ppg, nearly a TD more than any other team through two weeks. But the Brahmas are the No. 2 team. While San Antonio is trending in the right direction, Houston is the XFL’s top, most-complete team.

And here they are at home for the third time in three weeks. They won the first two games by 19 and 9 points. Houston’s ability to pressure QBs and San Antonio’s inability to slow down the run game will be two critical differences.

Pick: Roughnecks -4

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About the Author

Adam Thompson

More About Adam

Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.