Now four weeks in, the 2023 XFL betting season is becoming more predictable for betting purposes. Each week, we’ve seen fewer close games and more of the have’s vs. have-not’s - similar to what we’ve come to expect with NFL betting and college football. 

Week 4 was notable for its lack of competitive games. The four games were decided by 28, 14, 13 and 9 points. The favorites all covered the spread on sports betting apps with ease. 

Through four weeks, twice we’ve seen a lot of close games, twice we’ve seen blowout finishes. Sports bettors and oddsmakers can now concentrate less on the unique XFL rules and more on the personnel. The trial period for the league is over. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson has hit on 58.3% of his XFL picks so far. Here he breaks down the XFL Week 5 schedule and offers his XFL Week 5 best bets. 

XFL Week 5 Picks

Day	Matchup	Pick
Thursday	Houston Roughnecks at Seattle Sea Dragons	Roughnecks -3
Saturday	D.C. Defenders at St. Louis BattleHawks	Defenders -2
Saturday	Orlando Guardians at Vegas Vipers	Over 42
Sunday	Arlington Renegades at San Antonio Brahmas	Brahmas -2.5

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Thursday, March 16

Houston Roughnecks at Seattle Sea Dragons (+3, 41.5)

The two best passing teams in the XFL face off here. But this is also a matchup of the two best passing defenses. Each has a slight edge in the running game, but not big enough to provide a statistical reason to pick a side. 

Take away straight yards, however, and Houston win the battle. The Roughnecks have scored the most points by a wide margin, and allowed the fewest points. Over Seattle, Houston scores 10 more ppg and allows 5 fewer ppg. Houston is unbeaten and the top team in the XFL. 

Pick: Roughnecks -3

Saturday, March 18

D.C. Defenders at St. Louis BattleHawks (+2, 42)

The top teams in the XFL North face off here, but these teams approach the game differently. St. Louis has been a middle-of-the-pack offensive team, good-not-great in most aspects of the game. Its one weakness, easily, has been stopping the run. 

The Defenders average 155.5 rush yards per game, 61 more than any other team. Expect D.C. to grind one out. While normally that could mean an Under, D.C.’s horrid pass defense keeps St. Louis in the game. 

Pick: Defenders -2

Orlando Guardians at Vegas Vipers (-7.5, 42)

Someone has to win as the two last winless squads face off here. Vegas is laying over a TD despite having a defense that’s eighth (out of eight) in rush defense, and second-last in pass defense and points allowed. 

Orlando has allowed a whopping 29.2 ppg, by far the worst mark in the league, and it scores the fewest amount. And yet, when it comes to yards, the Guardians rank fourth or fifth in every major category. Which side should you trust? We’ll trust both defenses failing. 

Pick: Over 42

Sunday, March 19

Arlington Renegades at San Antonio Brahmas (-2.5, 35.5)

Arlington is unbeaten at home but winless on the road, and it comes into San Antonio with an offense that has generated fewer passing yards and fewer rushing yards than any other team. 

San Antonio’s offense has struggled to keep up in its three losses, but that shouldn’t be an issue here. Home teams have won six of the eight games the past two weeks, and the Renegades have given us no reason to back them. Lay it with the Brahmas. 

Pick: Brahmas -2.5

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