How Weather Could Impact Week 5 College Football Totals
Most college football bettors should have a comfortable understanding of the Week 5 lines by now. You know who you like, you know who you don’t like, and you get why certain point spreads have fluctuated throughout the week based on injury reports, money wagered, etc.
There’s just one last piece of the gambling puzzle. Don’t forget to jump on those weather forecasts.
One can learn a lot from the opening point spreads and totals. It’s probably best to avoid serious radar study earlier in the week with games so far out. Now is the time to dive in and see if we have any weather reports that could impact how things play out at stadiums across the country.
Things like wind, rain and warm-weather schools playing on the road in a blizzard should always be monitored. We’ll have to wait another month or two for those glorious snow games, but it’s always good to check in with your weather provider of choice no matter the time of year.
This week we have our eyes on two games in which weather could swing the total outcome and provide a bit of an edge to totals bettors.
Odds current as of publication and subject to change.
PICK 1: Colorado State at Utah State UNDER 70
It would be crazy to touch this thing under normal conditions. Utah State is No. 6 in the nation in total offense and No. 81 on defense. Colorado State is No. 8 in the nation in total offense and No. 106 on defense.
As of Friday afternoon, it doesn’t look like the game will be played under normal conditions. There’s a 100% chance of rain according to the National Weather Service and thunderstorms also look likely at some point.
Assuming they’re cleared to play, we’re not looking at ideal traction for skill position players nor conditions that favor a pass-heavy attack.
DraftKings has the total set at 70 and that’s a big number on any afternoon. We don’t expect a shootout if the forecast holds.
CHECK OUT: Our 5 Best Bets for College Football Week 5 and Complete Picks for Every Top-25 Team. If you are looking for the latest odds go here and compare the top sportsbooks.
PICK 2: UNLV at Wyoming UNDER 47.5
Unlike the first pick, we’d consider this one before taking weather into account. UNLV scored 31 points combined in its past two games and Wyoming has the nation’s 114th-ranked offense averaging 331.5 yards per game.
The Cowboys also average just 114.7 passing yards per game, and it won’t be any easier Saturday with a lot of wind in the forecast.
There’s a 30% chance of rain, but real factor here is wind gusts as high as 30 mph that could completely disrupt the aerial attack on either side. And, again, it’s not like these teams are lighting up the scoreboard in the first place.