UFC 258: Usman vs Burns Odds, Betting Tips & Predictions
Jed Meshew | 5 mins
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This weekend the UFC keeps rolling with its second pay-per-view of the year, UFC 258. In the main event on Saturday in Las Vegas, welterweight champion Kamaru Usman defends his title against his former teammate and training partner, the No. 1-ranked Gilbert Burns.
The friends-turned-foes storyline of the main event is the primary draw to UFC 258. The rest of the card is a little low on big-name value, but there are plenty of well-made fight and thus several good UFC betting opportunities.
UFC 258 Betting Lines & Picks
Additional UFC 258 Prop Bets to Back
Kamaru Usman to defeat Gilbert Burns by KO/TKO, +235 at PointsBet
UFC 258: Usman vs Burns Prediction
Lightweight is the best division in UFC and light heavyweight has long been the marquee division, but welterweight is the most significant division. Pat Miletich, Matt Hughes, Georges St-Pierre, Robbie Lawler and Tyron Woodley are among the most consequential and decorated fighters in the history of the sport. Current welterweight champion Kamaru Usman is carrying on that tradition admirably.
“The Nigerian Nightmare” is undefeated in the UFC, the fifth-ranked pound-for-pound fighter, and he’s only getting better. He’s an accomplished wrestler and has turned into a good boxer – but more important, he has excellent fight IQ so he can maximize his diverse skill set. When it’s all said and done, Usman may well etch his name among the all-time greats of the sport.
Standing in his way on Saturday is Gilbert Burns, who moved up from lightweight two years ago and has since looked sensational but not sensational enough to think he’ll have much to offer Usman. Make no mistake, Burns is a world-champion jiu-jitsu practitioner who has added effective boxing to his game. But Burns’ run at 170 pounds is as much a matter of timing as it is skill.
The wins that earned him this title shot, against Demian Maia and Tyron Woodley, both came against big names who were still highly ranked but were obviously diminished forms of themselves. In Usman, he’s facing not only an opponent at his absolute peak, but one who is bigger, stronger, faster, a better wrestler, and a more active offensive fighter in general.
Simply put, Burns is just out-gunned in every way here and this should be one-way traffic leading to a late stoppage for the champion. Bet on Usman by KO/TKO at +235 with PointsBet.
UFC 258: Barber vs Grasso Prediction
Oh, how the tables have turned. As recently as last year, Barber was the hot prospect in women’s MMA, telling anyone who would listen that she intended to become the youngest UFC champion ever. Then she was out-savvied in her last bout by one of the most veteran fighters in the entire sport, Roxanne Modafferi. The stink from that loss now sets Barber as an underdog; and while that’s understandable in some sense, it’s also just wrong.
Alexa Grasso certainly has better wins on her resume than Barber but Grasso has consistently struggled when faced with superior athletes and, for all Barber’s faults, she is the better athlete in this fight. She also works at a higher rate, gets hit less and should secure takedowns if needed. These odds should be flipped so there’s value on Barber at plus money. Wager on Barber at +115 with William Hill.
UFC 258: Gastelum vs Heinisch Prediction
There’s a reason Kelvin Gastelum is a considerable favorite in this fight. He’s a former Ultimate Fighter winner and the guy who gave middleweight champion Israel Adesanya his toughest fight in MMA. However, there’s a pretty significant issue with Gastelum: Not only is Gastelum on a three-fight losing streak, he also hasn’t beaten a fighter in their prime in over five years (one could argue he has actually never done it in the UFC).
Every time Gastelum has faced a good fighter at or near their peak, he has lost. Heinisch is not nearly as talented as some of those opponents but he’s still a very solid fighter and Gastelum’s recent run alone means that this line should be much closer than it is. Take the value on Heinisch at +190 with BetMGM.
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UFC 258: Kelleher vs Simón Prediction
This fight is arguably one of the best of the evening, made all the more interesting because these two men have been trying to fight one another for almost a year. It will finally happen on Saturday evening. There are plenty of reasons to think Simón will win, but Kelleher is a very live dog at these odds. Simón is a one-time hot prospect who came back to Earth slightly over the last few years but still shows a ton of promise.
Kelleher is the opposite, a guy who has scratched and clawed for everything he has but finally started to break through last year with three Performance of the Night bonuses in four fights. This fight should be a wild scramble and that’s where Kelleher thrives so I like him as an underdog bet. Bet on Kelleher at +220 with DraftKings.
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UFC 258 Date, Time & TV Information
When is UFC 258?
UFC 258 is Feb. 13 in Las Vegas.
What Time is UFC 258?
The main card is scheduled to begin at 10 p.m. ET; prelims begin at 6:15 p.m.
Where Can I Watch UFC 258?
The UFC 258 main card is on ESPN+ PPV; prelims are on Fight Pass, ESPN and ESPN+.