On Saturday, the UFC completes its eight-week run of events with its second pay per view of March, UFC 260. The card was set for two main title fights but featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovksi tested positive for COVID-19 last week, forcing that bout to be postponed. But UFC 260 still remains a must-see UFC betting event because of the heavyweight title fight main event.

Stipe Miocic and Francis Ngannou first faced each other in 2018 with many fans believing it would be a changing of the guard for the heavyweight division and the coronation of Ngannou. Instead, Miocic dominated the heavyweight slugger, winning a unanimous decision and setting the record for most heavyweight title defenses in UFC history.

Three years later, Ngannou has worked his way back to the top of the mountain and is looking to avenge his first professional loss, while Miocic is once again in the position of being the underdog champion. It’s high stakes fighting with the title of Baddest Man on the Planet up for grabs and we have it covered.

UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou Betting Analysis

Odds current as of publication and subject to change

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One of the most interesting things about this heavyweight title rematch is how little we can take from their first fight. Though it was only a few years ago, the outcome is not very instructive. Heading into that bout, Miocic was the hard-nosed veteran, durable and well-rounded without being truly exceptional in any one area.

In contrast, Ngannou was still early in his career, having been fighting less than five years before earning a heavyweight title shot. In the end, that lack of experience was the story of the fight as Ngannou punched himself out early and Miocic won handily.

In the three years since, we haven’t learned too much about either. Ngannou has rolled over the best in the division, knocking out his past four opponents in a combined 2:42. Meanwhile, Miocic has spent that time in a trilogy with Daniel Cormier, getting knocked out once and then winning two wars of attrition.

None of that is very helpful for projecting this bout, which seems have the same dynamics at play: Either Ngannou knocks Miocic out or Miocic grinds out a win.

But though the dynamics are roughly the same, that does not mean this fight will follow suit. A number of factors have changed heading into this weekend, primarily those three years that have passed. In their first fight, Ngannou was still incredibly raw and inexperienced. Now, with three more years under his belt and working with a better team, the sport’s premier knockout artist should be coming into this fight substantially more prepared to not just run over the champion.

Furthermore, Miocic is 38 and has long relied on his durability to help carry him through to the later rounds, where his conditioning can take over. That strategy might work against Cormier, but against Ngannou the champion will be playing with fire. The longer he stays in the cage with someone like Ngannou, the more opportunity Miocic has to pull defeat from the jaws of victory. A more prepared Ngannou, meeting an older Miocic, is a dangerous prospect by anyone’s reckoning.

UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou Best Bet

Though it’s safe to say that Miocic is the superior technical fighter in this matchup, MMA is a cruel sport. More often than not, especially at heavyweight, raw power and durability determine the outcome more than purely technique. And Miocic is clearly losing a step physically. That’s all Ngannou should need to avenge his first loss and to do so in emphatic fashion. Ngannou by KO/TKO at +105 with BetMGM is the best bet for this title fight, though if you’re particularly cautious, you can also throw in a small hedge on Miocic by Decision at +400.

Get more expert UFC picks from our team of handicappers at bookesEDGE!

More UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou Betting Tips

Tyron Woodley vs. Vicente Luque: Woodley is the former welterweight champion but has looked atrocious lately, losing his last three fights and 15 rounds in a row. Conversely, Luque is one of the most exciting rising prospects in the welterweight division. Given Woodley’s dispiriting run the last few years, Luque has been installed as a considerable favorite and there’s no reason to doubt that logic.

Woodley just doesn’t have anything left aside from durability. Even at his best, Luque’s pressuring style would pose some issues for the former champion. But with Woodley in his current state, back Luque by decision at +137 at FOX Bet.

Sean O’Malley vs. Thomas Almeida: O’Malley is one of the UFC’s budding young stars, who looked to be getting fast-tracked to a title shot until Marlon Vera kicked over that apple cart. At one point Almeida was also seen as a future title contender but, having lost three in a row and four of his last five, Almeida is now being lined up as a rebound fight for O’Malley.

Ultimately, that plan should work out for the UFC as Almeida is a bit of a glass cannon and O’Malley’s countering should find the mark early to put him back on the map. Back O’Malley by KO/TKO at +150 with William Hill; the particularly adventurous can go with O’Malley by First Round KO/TKO at +360 at FanDuel .

UFC 260 Date, Time & TV Info

When is UFC 260?

UFC 260 is March 27 in Las Vegas.

What Time is UFC 260?

The main card is scheduled to begin at 10 p.m. ET; prelims begin at 7:30 p.m.

Where Can I Watch UFC 260?

The UFC 260 main card is on ESPN+ PPV; prelims are on ESPN, ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass.