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UFC 285 Odds, Picks & Predictions For Jones vs. Gane

Adam Martin for Bookies.com

Adam Martin  | 11 mins

UFC 285 Odds, Picks & Predictions For Jones vs. Gane

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The latest UFC pay-per-view comes to you this Saturday night from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada when UFC 285 takes place. The main event features the return of MMA great Jon Jones, who battles Ciryl Gane for the vacant UFC heavyweight title. 

On top of the highly-intriguing main event, we also have 13 other great fights on the card. We’ll break down the headliner as well as two undercard bouts in the latest UFC picks right here at Bookies.com.

Favorite Underdog
Jon Jones | -155 Ciryl Gane | +135

Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

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UFC 285 Main Event Best Bet

Jon Jones (-155) vs. Ciryl Gane (+135)

The main event of UFC 285 is a five-round bout for the vacant UFC heavyweight title between Jon Jones and Ciryl Gane. Despite Gane being a +135 underdog on sports betting sites, I favor him to win this fight.

Let me get this out of the way now. As far as I’m concerned, Jones is the greatest MMA fighter of all time for everything that he accomplished down at light heavyweight, where he was a dominant, long-reigning champion. He basically ran through everyone in his path for over a decade, and to me, there is no greater talent that I’ve ever seen in the Octagon than Jones.

That being said, I have a lot of questions about him heading into this fight with Gane.

First off, Jones hasn’t fought in over three years. The last time we saw him fight was way back in February 2020 when he took on Dominick Reyes at UFC 247. That’s a long layoff – he basically hasn’t fought since the COVID-19 pandemic started. 

Second, this is his first fight as a heavyweight, and we simply don’t know how he will perform in this weight class. 

Third, he’s now 35 years old, so while he’s not exactly ancient, he’s still the older fighter in this matchup.

The other thing is, when Jones was at 205 lbs, his greatest advantages were his height and his reach. At heavyweight, he won’t have those same advantages, and in fact, Gane matches up with him well in both departments. Gane is 6’4” and Jones has just a three-inch reach advantage. 

Down at light heavyweight, Jones’ reach was one of his greatest gifts, and up at heavyweight, we just don’t know how he’ll look going up against similarly-sized opponents.

It’s also worth noting that Gane is an excellent opponent, and is currently the top-rated heavyweight fighter in the UFC. Even though Gane doesn’t have the overall experience that Jones does, he has been a really quick learner ever since starting MMA five years ago. 

He was in the UFC just a year after debuting in MMA, and he’s done great in the Octagon so far in his career. He is a fantastic striker and a slick grappler, and he has the cardio to go five full rounds.

I also just trust Gane more right now, given how incredibly active he’s been in the UFC over the past few years. Since Jones last fought, Gane has fought six times, going 5-1 in those bouts, while fighting the best heavyweight competition the UFC has to offer. 

He has proven that he is an excellent fighter and someone who would be a worthy UFC heavyweight champion now that Francis Ngannou – the only fighter to ever defeat Gane in the UFC – has left the promotion. 

This is the first time I’ve ever picked against Jones in the Octagon, but I actually slightly favor Gane to win this fight, so to get him at +135 underdog odds is something I can’t pass up. I’m going with Gane to beat Jones for the upset, and I’ll take him to win inside the distance.

UFC 285 Best Bet: Ciryl Gane wins at +135 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 285 Best Prop Bet: Ciryl Gane wins inside the distance at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other UFC 285 Best Bets & Predictions

Cameron Saaiman (-250) vs. Mana Martinez (+210)

On the prelims, Cameron Saaiman takes on Mana Martinez in a battle of bantamweights. Saaiman is a -250 UFC betting favorite, and I like him to win this fight.

At just 22, Saaiman is one of the youngest fighters in the UFC, and I believe he will have a great career in the Octagon. The South African native is undefeated as a pro with a 7-0 record with six of those wins coming by stoppage. 

He picked up an incredible knockout win on Dana White’s Contender Series to get signed to the UFC, and then he had an awesome finish in his debut. This young prospect has a lot of potential in MMA and I think he’s going to have a great career.

Martinez, meanwhile, has been rather disappointing since he made his UFC debut in 2021. Since then, the 26-year-old American is just 2-1 in the Octagon, with both of his wins coming by split decision. 

Before coming to the UFC, he was a knockout artist on the regional scene, but we really haven’t seen that killer instinct from him in the UFC. Moreover, he has shown flaws in his takedown defense and striking defense as it appears that he has a lot of holes in his game.

Saaiman is someone in whom I have faith, and I think he will get the job done against Martinez. Take Saaiman as a -250 favorite, and take him to get the win inside the distance for a prop.

UFC 285 Best Bet: Cameron Saaiman wins at -250 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 285 Best Prop Bet: Cameron Saaiman inside the distance with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Tabatha Ricci (-230) vs. Jessica Penne (+195)

Also on the prelims is a women’s strawweight bout featuring Tabatha Ricci and Jessica Penne. Ricci is a -230 favorite and I believe she will win this fight.

This fight was actually supposed to happen last year but fell apart at the last minute after Penne fell ill on weigh-in day. I actually had Ricci as one of my Best Bets for the original matchup, and there’s no reason that I wouldn’t take her again given the odds are pretty much the same.

Just 28, I view Ricci as one of the better prospects in the UFC women’s strawweight division. The Brazilian is an excellent grappler and her wrestling base and BJJ skills allow her to control her opponents on the mat. 

We know that if you’re a good grappler you can win a lot of fights in MMA, so I expect Ricci to have a great UFC career since she is so good on the ground. Her striking skills still need improving, but it’s hard to stop her from taking her opponents down.

At age 40, her opponent Penne is one of the oldest women’s fighters in the UFC right now. The American has a ton of experience and is a former title challenger, but I do feel like she’s nearing the end of her career. 

I will give Penne credit because she is extremely tough and hard to finish, traits that have allowed her to have an extended career in the UFC, and she is also quite slick on the ground. That being said, her striking has never been her strong suit, and her takedown defense is also quite poor, stopping just 40% of her opponents’ takedown attempts in the UFC.

I see Ricci taking down Penne in this fight and controlling her on the ground en route to her third straight decision win in the UFC. Give me Ricci at -230 on betting apps, and take her by decision for a prop bet.

UFC 285 Best Bet: Tabatha Ricci wins at -230 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 285 Best Prop Bet: Tabatha Ricci wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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About the Author

Adam Martin for Bookies.com
Adam Martin
A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.