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UFC 289 Odds, Picks & Predictions For Nunes vs. Aldana

Adam Martin for Bookies.com

Adam Martin  | 10 mins

UFC 289 Odds, Picks & Predictions For Nunes vs. Aldana

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The Octagon returns to Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada this Saturday night for UFC 289. In the headliner, UFC women’s bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes looks to defend her title when she takes on Irene Aldana. 

Plus, there are 10 undercard bouts. We’ll break down the main event and two of the preliminary fights and make our UFC picks in our UFC 289 preview.

Favorite Underdog
Amanda Nunes | -315 Irene Aldana | +260

Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

UFC 289 Main Event Best Bet

Amanda Nunes (-325) vs. Irene Aldana (+270)

In the main event of UFC 289, UFC women’s bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes defends her title against Irene Aldana. Nunes is a -325 betting apps favorite, and I like her to defend her belt.

The 35-year-old Nunes defeated her rival Julianna Pena in her last fight to get back the title she lost two years ago in a shocking upset. The greatest women’s MMA fighter of all time, Nunes has won 13 of her last 14 fights, and overall her UFC record is 15-2 with 10 wins by stoppage. 

She is extremely dangerous everywhere, with devastating knockout power on the feet, dominant wrestling takedowns and top control, and the ability to finish the fight by submission. Aside from the hiccup against Pena, a fight she took after a struggle to deal with the after-effects of COVID-19, she has looked incredible for the last nine years. You just don’t bet against Nunes.

Aldana is a really good fighter who I’ve long admired. Also 35 years of age, Aldana has won four of her last five fights heading into this bout, and she has an overall UFC record of 7-4 with four stoppage wins. 

In fact, her last three wins have come by knockout, including a unique upkick to the body KO in her last fight against Macy Chiasson, a finish that ultimately earned her a title shot. Aldana is a very good boxer and she has a puncher’s chance to beat Nunes for the belt. That being said, her ground game still seems questionable to me. 

She was taken down three times against Chiasson, and in her last loss to Holly Holm, she was taken down five times. If she can keep this fight standing, she has a chance, so look for Nunes to pursue the takedowns. 

Nunes looked back to her normal dominant self in her last fight against Pena, and while Aldana is a deserving title contender with KO power, I still have to go with Nunes to win this fight. I believe she will look to use her wrestling in this fight and take Aldana down to the ground. 

There, I see her getting the finish via ground and pound TKO. Take Nunes to defend the women’s 135 lbs title at -310 odds, and take a look at her to win this fight by knockout for a prop.

UFC 289 Best Bet: Amanda Nunes wins at -325 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 289 Best Prop Bet: Amanda Nunes wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other UFC 289 Best Bets

Mike Malott (-210) vs. Adam Fugitt (+180)

Also on the main card, Canadian Mike Malott defends home soil against Adam Fugitt in a welterweight bout. Malott is a -210 betting favorite, and I like him to win this fight by stoppage.

Malott is 31 years old and so far he is 2-0 in the UFC with both of his wins coming by way of knockout. In fact, all nine of his career wins have come by stoppage. He is incredibly dangerous anywhere the fight goes, with knockout power in his fists to go along with nasty submissions on the ground. 

By all accounts, he is one of the best prospects fighting out of Canada right now, and potentially someone who could break into the top-15 rankings by the year’s end. The UFC is giving him a tremendous opportunity on this PPV card, and now it’s up to him to shine bright.

The 34-year-old Fugitt is not a bad fighter himself by any means. After getting knocked out in his UFC debut by top prospect Michael Morales, he finished the highly-regarded Yusaku Kinoshita by TKO in his last fight, a performance that turned eyes. 

All but one of his nine career wins have come by stoppage, as well, so we know he has the ability to finish the fight. That being said, he himself has been knocked out two times in his career, and now he’s going up against someone who has big power like Malott. Fugitt is a good fighter too, but this looks like a tough matchup.

Malott has looked exceptional in the UFC, and this showcase fight in Vancouver is the perfect opportunity for the Ontario native to pick up a huge win in front of Canadian fans. I’m going with Malott to win this fight with flying colors and ultimately get the highlight-reel victory via knockout.

UFC 289 Best Bet: Mike Malott wins at -210 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 289 Best Prop Bet: Mike Malott wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Blake Bilder (-225) vs. Kyle Nelson (+190)

On the prelims, Blake Bilder fights Canada’s Kyle Nelson at featherweight. Bilder is a -225 betting favorite to get the win, and I believe he will get his hand raised in this contest.

The 32-year-old Bilder joined the UFC following a stoppage win on Dana White’s Contender Series last summer. In his promotional debut earlier this year at UFC 284, Bilder won his UFC debut when he defeated Shane Young by decision. 

Overall, he is undefeated as he has won eight fights, with five victories by stoppage, plus he has one draw. He is well-rounded everywhere with a solid ground game to go along with intriguing striking skills. We still need to see him get tested more in the UFC, but from what we’ve seen so far, he’s a good prospect.

Nelson has been in the UFC since 2018 but he has just a poor 1-4-1 record overall, with three of those losses coming by stoppage. Also 32 years old, Nelson did look improved in the grappling department in his last fight against Doo Ho Choi, forcing a draw in the process. That being said, he would have lost if it wasn’t for a head-butt foul by Choi. 

Overall, there just hasn’t been a lot to be impressed by during Nelson's career. He did have a knockout win back in 2019, but he hasn’t won a fight since then. Going up against Bilder, he appears to be outgunned everywhere.

Although Nelson will have a size advantage in this fight, I still think Bilder will be too slick for him. Overall, I view Bilder as the more dangerous, creative fighter who is more well-rounded. Look for Bilder to outstrike Nelson and outgrapple him to take home the decision victory.

UFC 289 Best Bet: Blake Bilder wins at -225 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 289 Best Prop Bet: Blake Bilder wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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About the Author

Adam Martin for Bookies.com
Adam Martin
A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.