The Octagon returns to the mecca at Madison Square Garden in New York City this Saturday night for UFC 295: Pereira vs. Prochazka. The event was originally supposed to be headlined by the GOAT Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic, but after Jones was injured in training the fight fell off. 

Thankfully, there are still two title fights on this card and 13 fights in total. We will take a closer look at the new main event between Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira for the vacant UFC light heavyweight title as well as two undercard bouts in our Bookies UFC picks for UFC 295.

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UFC 295 Main Event Best Bet

Alex Pereira (-125) vs. Jiri Prochazka (+105)

In the main event of UFC 295, Alex Pereira battles Jiri Prochazka for the vacant UFC light heavyweight title. Pereira is a -125 UFC betting favorite, and I think he will finish the former light heavyweight champion Prochazka to win the title and earn a second UFC title in a second weight class.

Pereira is 36 and he is the former UFC middleweight champion. The Brazilian has a 5-1 record in the UFC including notable knockout wins over Sean Strickland, the current UFC middleweight champ, and the former UFC middleweight kingpin, Israel Adesanya. After losing to Adesanya in a rematch, Pereira moved up to 205 lbs and defeated former UFC light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz in his divisional debut. 

He is an amazing striker with huge knockout power and he has also been improving his grappling skills over the years. He has already proven he has what it takes to be a UFC champion in one weight class and now he will try to do it in a second.

Prochazka is 31 and he is the former UFC light heavyweight champ. The Czech Republic native is 3-0 in the UFC with stoppage wins over Glover Teixeira, Dominick Reyes, and Volkan Oezdemir. He has huge knockout power in all of his limbs and, as he showed against Teixeira, he has submission skills on the ground as well. 

Prochazka is currently riding a 13-fight win streak at the moment. However, he has not fought in well over a year after suffering a serious shoulder injury. It remains to be seen if his injury will affect him going forward. Regardless, Prochazka is a great fighter, but with so many concerns, it’s clear why he is the underdog here.

Both of these fighters are elite which is why the betting line is so close. That being said, I don’t like Prochazka’s striking defense, and going up against an elite striker like Periera, I see him getting knocked out in this particular matchup. 

Look for Pereira to be the more effective striker in this fight and land the kill shot within the first couple of rounds. Give me Pereira to get the win here to claim the vacant 205 lbs title as a -125 betting favorite, and take him by TKO for a prop.

UFC 295 Best Bet: Alex Periera wins at -125 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 295 Best Prop Bet: Alex Periera wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other 295 Best Bets

Mackenzie Dern (-205) vs. Jessica Andrade (+170)

In women’s strawweight action, Mackenzie Dern takes on Jessica Andrade. Dern is a -205 favorite, and I favor her to win this fight in style by scoring a submission victory over Andrade.

Dern is 30 years old and she has an 8-3 record in the UFC with four wins coming by submission. Dern is a dangerous black belt on the ground and has continued to make improvements in all aspects of her game during her UFC career. She has improved her striking over the years and she has turned into a very well-rounded fighter. In her last bout, Dern was able to defeat Angela Hill by a lopsided decision in an epic beatdown. If she can bring that momentum into this bout against Andrade then she should be able to have a great performance.

Andrade is 32 and the Brazilian is a former champion. She has been in the UFC for a decade now and has a 15-10 record in the Octagon. Andrade has been one of the best women’s fighters in the UFC for a long time and she has fought in three different weight classes, displaying her versatility. She is a super dangerous striker with knockout power and, at times, has shown offensive grappling skills. 

That being said, she has lost her last three fights in a row and has shown major holes on the ground in regard to her defensive grappling. Going up against an extremely dangerous black belt like Dern, this could be a bad night for Andrade.

Dern looked like a serious title threat in her last fight against Hill and she now takes on a fighter in Andrade who appears to be in a serious decline having lost three straight fights by stoppage. Given Dern is the younger, fresher fighter and the superior grappler, I really like her in this matchup. Give me Dern to win as a -205 betting apps favorite and take her to win by submission for a prop.

UFC 295 Best Bet: Mackenzie Dern wins at -205 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 295 Best Prop Bet: Mackenzie Dern wins by submission at DraftKings Sportsbook

Joshua Van (-225) vs. Kevin Borjas (+185)

In an early preliminary card bout, Joshua Van takes on Kevin Borjas, who is making his UFC debut. Van is a -225 favorite, and I like him to pick up his second victory in the UFC over Borjas.

Van is 22 years old and he defeated Zhalgas Zhumagulov in his UFC debut back in June. What was so impressive about that performance is that he took the fight on short notice and was still able to outstrike a veteran with far more UFC experience. Prior to coming to the UFC, Van had finished all of his fights by stoppage. 

He has excellent striking and he is dangerous on the ground. In his UFC debut, he proved he has good volume striking and he also showed that he can fight hard for 15 minutes. Given his young age, he should continue to keep improving.

Borjas is 25 years old and he is making his promotional debut here after earning a UFC contract with a win over Victor Dias on Dana White’s Contender Series. In that fight, Borjas showed that he has really good striking, strong cardio, and an impressive get-up game after being taken down. 

The Peruvian had finished all of his fights by knockout prior to that fight, so he had shown that he was very dangerous, and he showed against Dias that he could go the full 15 minutes. There is a lot to like about Borjas and he should prove to have a successful career in the UFC.

I think this is one of the sleeper fights on a stacked card and I fully expect it to be one of the most exciting bouts taking place this weekend. In this fight, I like Van to get his hand raised. I think he will land more volume in the striking department and I see him landing the harder strikes in this fight as he takes home a decision win to move to 2-0 in the UFC. Go with Van to get his hand raised as a -225 favorite and take him to win the fight by decision for a prop bet.

UFC 295 Best Bet: Joshua Van wins at -225 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 295 Best Prop Bet: Joshua Van wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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