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UFC Jacksonville Odds, Picks & Predictions For Emmett vs. Topuria

Adam Martin for Bookies.com

Adam Martin  | 10 mins

UFC Jacksonville Odds, Picks & Predictions For Emmett vs. Topuria

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This Saturday night, the Octagon heads to Jacksonville, Florida for the latest UFC Fight Night card. In the main event, we have a pair of top-ranked featherweights going at it when Ilia Topuria takes on Josh Emmett. 

There are an additional 13 preliminary card bouts, for a total of 14 fights overall. In our UFC Jacksonville betting preview, we will break down the main event of this weekend’s card and give our UFC picks on two of the preliminary card fights set to take place.

Favorite Underdog
Ilia Topuria | -340 Josh Emmett | +280

Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

UFC Jacksonville Main Event Best Bet

Ilia Topuria (-340) vs. Josh Emmett (+280)

In the main event of UFC Vegas 75, Ilia Topuria faces off against Josh Emmett in a five-round featherweight bout. Topuria is a -340 favorite on betting apps, and I believe he will win this fight by stoppage.

Topuria is only 26 years old and the Georgian is already making a name for himself in the UFC. He is a perfect 5-0 in the UFC since joining the world’s leading MMA promotion back in 2020, with four of those wins coming by way of stoppage. 

He has an absolutely incredible grappling game that has seen him win eight fights by submission, but he also has huge power in his hands, having won four fights by knockout. He is a brutal finisher, and he is super young too, meaning he still has a lot of untapped potential. 

Overall, he’s one of the best featherweights in the UFC, and if he can get past Emmett in this fight, he won’t be long away from a title shot.

Speaking of title shots, Emmett lost by submission to Yair Rodriguez in his last fight in a failed bid to win the interim UFC featherweight title. At age 38, it’s hard to see Emmett improving much going forward. 

He does have a ton of UFC experience, and overall he’s done very well in the UFC, but considering his age, it’s hard to see him going up from here. He has a puncher’s chance against anyone due to the sheer power in his hands, but his poor takedown defense is likely going to end up costing him in this fight against a far superior grappler in Topuria.

Emmett has been a good fighter for a long time, but he appears to be hitting the decline stage in his career, while Topuria is continually moving up in his career. I have no doubt that Topuria will win this fight, and likely do so by stoppage as well. 

My guess is Topuria takes the path of least resistance and submits Emmett on the ground – he has a poor 58% takedown defense – though a knockout is of course possible. Either way, Topuria wins as a -340 favorite and gets the finish.

UFC Jacksonville Best Bet: Ilia Topuria wins at -340 at DraftKings Sportsbook  

UFC Jacksonville Best Prop Bet: Ilia Topuria wins by submission at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other UFC Jacksonville Best Bets

Trevor Peek (-110) vs. Jose Mariscal (-110)

On the prelims, Trevor Peek takes on Jose Mariscal in a lightweight bout. Peek is available at -110 odds, and I like him to get the win and knock his opponent out in this fight.

Peek is 28 years old and he has an undefeated record of 8-0, 1 NC with all eight of his wins coming by knockout. That includes a vicious KO win over Erick Gonzalez in a memorable UFC debut. By all means, Peek has absolutely monster power in his hands and he has the ability to take out anyone with his strikes. His grappling is still a bit of a question mark, but as long as he can keep his fights on the feet, then he has a very good chance of knocking his opponents out.

As for Mariscal, he is making his UFC debut here on short notice. The 30-year-old fighter enters the Octagon riding a three-fight winning streak, with all three wins coming by knockout, so he’s definitely earned his spot on the UFC roster. However, he has been knocked out three times in his MMA career, so going up against Peek, there is a chance that turns into four knockout losses. Mariscal will need to weather the early storm to win, but that’s easier said than done.

Aside from a No Contest in his pro MMA debut, Peek has knocked out every single one of his opponents so far, and I don’t expect this fight to go any differently. Look for Peek to come out blitzing right away and finish Mariscal in the first round. Take Peek at the -110 odds, and go with him to win this fight by knockout, as he’s never won a fight by another method.

UFC Jacksonville Best Bet: Trevor Peek wins at -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Jacksonville Best Prop Bet: Trevor Peek wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook

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UPDATE: The following bout between Taira and Rodrigues was scrapped after Rodrigues missed weight at 129lbs. Our breakdown for the fight can be viewed below, but the fight is off for Saturday's UFC Jacksonville card.

Tatsuro Taira (-265) vs. Kleydson Rodrigues (+225)

Also on the prelims, Tatsuro Taira faces Kleydson Rodrigues at flyweight. Taira is a -265 favorite to win the fight, and I like him to get the job done here.

Taira is only 23 years old and the Japanese prospect is already one of the best fighters in his weight class in the UFC. He’s a perfect 13-0 as a pro MMA fighter, including a 3-0 mark so far in the Octagon. Taira has phenomenal grappling skills and his wrestling and submission abilities should help him win a lot of fights inside the Octagon. He has also improved his striking. Overall, he is one of the top young fighters at 125lbs and he is constantly improving, too.

As for Rodrigues, he is 27 years old and has a 1-1 record so far in the UFC. He had a tough fight against CJ Vergara in his UFC debut, losing a split decision, but rebounded back with a knockout win over Shannon Ross in his next fight. Rodrigues is an excellent striker and he has some solid skills on the ground, too, so I expect him to win several fights in the UFC. However, his takedown defense isn’t great, and going up against Taira, he figures to get taken down.

Taira is one of the best flyweight prospects in the UFC, and while I do like Rodrigues as well, I still think Taira’s grappling is going to prove to be a huge problem for his opponent in this fight. Look for Taira to take Rodrigues to the ground and grind his opponent out for a decision win. Take Taira as a -265 betting favorite, and take him to win this fight by decision for a prop bet.

UFC Jacksonville Best Bet: Tatsuro Taira wins at -265 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Jacksonville Best Prop Bet: Tatsuro Taira wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

About the Author

Adam Martin for Bookies.com
Adam Martin
A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.