UFC Vegas 106 Odds, Picks, Predictions & UFC Best Bets for Morales vs. Burns

The Octagon is back once again at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 106. The event is headlined by welterweight contenders Gilbert Burns and Michael Morales.

We will give our main event prediction and our picks for two undercard bouts in the in the latest edition of the Bookies.com UFC picks.

UFC odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook Review.

Michael Morales (-800) vs. Gilbert Burns (+550)

In the main event of UFC Vegas 106, Michael Morales takes on Gilbert Burns in a five-round welterweight battle. Morales is an -800 favorite, and I expect him to win this fight.

Morales is 25, and he is 5-0 in the UFC. The Ecuador native joined the UFC in 2022, and he has gone 5-0 since then with three stoppage wins. He has looked amazing in the Octagon thus far, and he continues to improve every time he steps into the cage. 

Morales is a phenomenal striker, and he has tremendous takedown defense, making him a nightmare matchup for most of the other welterweights in the UFC, including Burns in this particular main event UFC matchup.

Burns is 38, and he is 15-8 in the UFC. The Brazilian joined the UFC in 2014, and he has had a very solid career overall while fighting at both lightweight and welterweight, taking on many of the best opponents in both divisions throughout the past decade. 

As of late, though, Burns has struggled, and he has begun to show signs of aging, as he’s lost his last three fights in a row. He has the grappling to make fights interesting, but as he gets older, his durability is starting to go. 

This looks like a showcase fight for Morales, who is significantly younger, stronger, bigger, faster, and more powerful. Look for Morales to stop all of Burns’ takedown attempts, keep this fight on the feet, and batter the Brazilian for a TKO win. 

Take Morales to win at a -800 favorite, and look for Morales by knockout prop if you want to bring down the juice on his moneyline. You can also consider an SGP of Morales/fight ends by knockout at -155.

UFC Vegas 106 Best Bet: Michael Morales wins at -800 with DraftKings Sportsbook or SGP of Michael Morales/fight ends by knockout at -155

Matheus Camilo (-225) vs. Gabe Green (+185)

Also on the main card is a lightweight bout between Matheus Camilo and Gabe Green. Camilo is a -225 favorite, and I like him to win his UFC debut.

Camilo is 24, and this is his UFC debut. The Brazilian has won his last six fights in a row, and he looks like a very promising prospect, which is why the UFC signed him. That being said, this fight against Green is a step up in competition on paper, so it will be interesting to see how he reacts to fighting a tougher opponent. Based on what he’s done so far, he can win this fight, too.

Green is 32, and he is 2-3 in the UFC. The American debuted in the UFC in 2020 and he won two of his first three fights inside the Octagon, but since then, he has lost twice, including a brutal KO loss to Bryan Battle in his last fight. 

Plus, Green has not fought in over two years, and he is now moving down a weight class, making this a tough matchup, as evidenced by the odds.

Green hasn’t fought in over two years and is dropping down in weight, which could negatively impact his durability. As for Camilo, he has been on a roll leading up to his UFC debut, and I expect him to be successful here. 

Take Camilo to win as a -225 favorite, and consider taking him by knockout, as I expect him to find Green’s chin and find the finish in his UFC debut.

UFC Vegas 106 Best Bet: Matheus Camilo wins at -225 with DraftKings Sportsbook .

Yadier DelValle (-470) vs. Connor Matthews (+360)

On the prelims, Yadier DelValle fights Connor Matthews at featherweight. DelVale is a -470 favorite, and I expect him to be successful in his UFC debut.

DelValle is 28, and this is his UFC debut. The Cuban made his pro MMA debut in 2019, and so far, all he has done is win as he’s gone undefeated with an 8-0 record. That includes a dominant win on Dana White’s Contender Series last year that earned him a UFC contract. Following that win, DelValle now enters the UFC with a lot of hype when he takes on Matthews in his debut.

Matthews is 32, and he is 0-2 in the UFC. The American went 1-1 on Dana White’s Contender Series to earn a UFC deal, but since joining the world’s largest MMA promotion, it’s been a tough run for Matthews as he’s lost by knockout in both of his UFC fights. His job is likely on the line here, and he probably needs to pull off an unlikely upset to keep his spot on the UFC roster.

DelValle looks like an excellent prospect, and he has a very winnable UFC debut here against a mediocre fighter in Matthews. 

Go with DelValle to get the win in this fight as a -470 favorite, and I am expecting him to get the knockout, so you can consider DelValle by knockout for a prop.

UFC Vegas 106 Best Bet: Yadier DelValle wins at -470 with DraftKings Sportsbook .