UFC 317 Odds, Picks, Predictions & UFC Best Bets for between Topuria vs. Oliveira
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The Octagon heads to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday for UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira. The vacant UFC lightweight title is on the line between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira, and there are 10 undercard bouts.
In this edition of the Bookies.com UFC picks, we will break down the main event and two other fights and give out our favorite plays.
UFC 317 : Topuria vs. Oliveira
UFC odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook Review.
UFC 317 Main Event Best Bet
Ilia Topuria (-425) vs. Charles Oliveira (+330)
The vacant UFC lightweight title is up for grabs when Ilia Topuria takes on Charles Oliveira. Topuria is a -425 favorite, and I believe he will defeat Oliveira and become the new champion.
Topuria is 28, and he is 8-0 in the UFC. The Georgian made his UFC debut in 2020, and he has won every fight since then, including winning the UFC featherweight title with a brutal KO win over future UFC Hall of Famer Alexander Volkanovski, and then following it up with a knockout win over another legend in Max Holloway. Topuria has looked incredible in the UFC, and he has shown no flaws in his game for the most part.
Earlier this year, Topuria decided to give up the UFC featherweight title and pursue the UFC lightweight belt instead. The UFC decided to give him an immediate title shot, and now he takes on Oliveira with the vacant belt on the line here.
Oliveira is 35, and he is 23-10, 1 NC in the UFC. The Brazilian is the former UFC lightweight champion and is one of the most dangerous finishers in the history of the promotion, having won 20 fights by stoppage – the most in UFC history. He is incredibly dangerous with his submissions, but he also has knockout power on the feet. He is always in exciting fights and is always a candidate to win a post-fight bonus award.
The one knock against Oliveira, however, is his durability, having been finished eight times. As good as Oliveira is, he doesn’t have the best chin, and that could be a huge problem when he takes on a big, powerful puncher like Topuria.
Oliveira is a legend and a future UFC Hall of Famer, but Topuria is on a roll right now and seems destined to become a two-division UFC champion. I like Topuria to knock Oliveira out and win the vacant UFC lightweight belt. Take Topuria to win at -425 and take him to win by knockout.
UFC 317 Best Bet: Ilia Topuria wins at -425 with DraftKings Sportsbook
Other 317 Best Bets
Alexandre Pantoja (-265) vs. Kai Kara-France (+215)
The UFC flyweight title is on the line when Alexandre Pantoja defends his belt against Kai Kara-France. Pantoja is a -265 favorite, and I like him to keep his title with another win.
Pantoja is 35, and he is 13-3 in the UFC. The Brazilian is the UFC flyweight champion and is one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport. He is currently riding a seven-fight win streak, and many of those wins have come against the sport’s top flyweights. Pantoja is an exceptional grappler who is also a good striker, and he has incredible cardio and a sturdy chin.
He has very few flaws in his game and is a very deserving champion. He has defended the UFC flyweight title in his last three bouts and will look for a fourth straight defense this weekend.
Kara-France is 32, and he is 8-4 in the UFC. The New Zealander is coming off a brutal KO win over Steve Erceg in his last fight to earn this title shot. He is one of the most powerful punchers in the UFC flyweight division and has the takedown defense to make this fight with Pantoja very interesting.
One thing to note is that Pantoja has fought Kara-France in 2016, with Pantoja winning a decision on The Ultimate Fighter in an exhibition bout. Now, nine years later, these two will meet again, only this time the fight will take place for the undisputed UFC flyweight belt.
Pantoja is the best flyweight in the game, and while Kara-France has the tools to make this fight interesting, ultimately, I see him coming up short against the pound-for-pound great. Take Pantoja to get the win here as a -265 favorite, and consider him to win by decision for a prop.
UFC 317 Best Bet: Alexandre Pantoja wins -265 with DraftKings Sportsbook .
Jhonata Diniz (-200) vs. Alvin Hines (+170)
At heavyweight, Jhonata Diniz fights UFC newcomer Alvin Hines. Diniz is a -200 favorite, and I will take him to win this fight.
Diniz is 33, and he is 2-1 in the UFC. The Brazilian is a former professional kickboxer who made the move to MMA in 2022. He won the first eight fights of his MMA career before losing in his last fight to top-10 ranked heavyweight Marcin Tybura.
Diniz is an excellent striker with huge knockout power. His grappling isn’t great, but it is improving. He is extremely dangerous with his striking, and anytime he can keep his fights on the feet, he can land the knockout blow.
Hines is 33, and this is his UFC debut. The American is undefeated on the regional scene with a 7-0 record so far, with all but one of his wins coming by stoppage. He has power on the feet, plus he is strong on the ground, an area of the game where he holds an advantage over Diniz.
However, Hines has not fought quality opposition so far, and this fight against Diniz is a huge step up in competition, not to mention the fact that Hines didn’t have much notice to prepare.
Although Hines is undefeated, this is a massive step up in competition, and he is taking this fight on very short notice. Diniz should be the more powerful striker, and I believe he knocks Hines out. Go with Diniz to win as a -200 favorite, and take him to win by knockout.
UFC 317 Best Bet: Jhonata Diniz at -200 with DraftKings Sportsbook .
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