The Octagon heads to Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California for the first time when UFC 311 goes down. The pay-per-view card features two title fights plus 12 undercard bouts for 14 fights in total. We will break down the UFC picks for the two championship matches plus one of the undercard bouts in further detail in the latest edition of the Bookies.com Best Bets for UFC 311.

UFC odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook Review.

Islam Makhachev (-425) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (+330) 

The main event of UFC 311 is a rematch for the UFC lightweight title between Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan. The champion Makhachev is a -425 favorite at the top sports betting apps, and I predict he will successfully defend his title here.

Makhachev is 33 and he is 15-1 in the UFC. The Russian is considered by many to be the best MMA fighter in the world regardless of weight class. He is an incredible MMA fighter who is riding a 14-fight win streak right now and who has defeated everyone in his path except for one opponent in his second UFC fight a decade ago. Since then, Makhachev has sliced through everyone in his path. He has incredible grappling skills, his striking continues to improve every time we see him, he has a strong chin, and his cardio is proven over five rounds. Makhachev has very few flaws in his game and there is no reason to doubt him now. As good as Tsarukyan is, Makhachev has already beaten him, and he’s only gotten better since then.

Tsarukyan is 28 and he is 9-2 in the UFC. The Georgian lost his UFC debut to Makhachev back in 2019 on short notice, but since then he has won nine of his last 10 fights in the UFC. He is an incredible talent who is well-rounded everywhere with strong grappling to go along with knockout power. The problem is, he is taking on one of the best fighters on the planet in Makhachev. If Tsarukyan is going to win this fight, he will basically need to fight a perfect fight. He has all the skills in the world, but so does his opponent, hence why he’s a big underdog.

Even though Tsarukyan is a fantastic talent, Makhachev is arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet, and he already holds a win in this matchup. I do think it will go the distance, but I see Makhachev being the superior striker and grappler en route to another successful title defense. Take Makhachev to win at -425 and take him by decision for a prop.

UFC 311 Best Bet: Islam Makhachev wins at -425 with DraftKings Sportsbook  

Umar Nurmagomedov (-325) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+260) 

In the co-main event, UFC bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili puts his title on the line against undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov. Despite being the challenger, Umar Nurmagomedov is a big favorite, and I like him to win the belt.

Dvalishvili is 34 and he is 11-1 in the UFC. The Georgian lost his first two UFC fights before winning 11 straight bouts and becoming the UFC bantamweight champion in his last fight when he defeated Sean O’Malley. Dvalishvili is an incredible grappler who has been able to take down and control most of his opponents in the UFC. However, his striking has never been his strong suit, and going up against someone with strong takedown defense like Nurmagomedov could end up being a difficult stylistic matchup for the champion in his first title defense.

Nurmagomedov is 29 and he is 6-0 in the UFC. The Russian is the cousin of UFC all-time legend Khabib Nurmagomedov, and just like his famous family member, Nurmagomedov is an incredible grappler who has taken down and controlled the majority of his opponents. His wrestling is phenomenal, but he also has very good striking skills, making him a well-rounded and dangerous fighter. In many ways, Nurmagomedov is the heir apparent to Dvalishvili as he is almost an upgraded version of the current champion due to his striking advantage. If he can stop Dvalishvili’s takedowns, then this should be a good stylistic matchup for the challenger.

It’s not every day you see the champion as a big underdog, but that’s the case in this fight. As much as I think Dvalishvili is a great fighter, I believe Nurmagomedov matches up well with him as he should be able to defend the takedowns, keep this fight on the feet, and be the superior striker. Take Nurmagomedov as a -325 favorite to win, and take him by decision for a prop.

UFC 311 Best Bet: Umar Nurmagomedov wins at  -325 with DraftKings Sportsbook .

Kevin Holland (-115) vs. Reiner de Ridder (-105)

Middleweights battle when Kevin Holland meets Reiner de Ridder in the opening main card bout. Despite being a slight -105 underdog, I like de Ridder to win.

Holland is 32 and he is 13-9, 1 NC in the UFC. The American joined the UFC in 2018 and has been one of the most active fighters in the promotion since then, fighting 23 times between welterweight and middleweight. He is a very exciting fighter who excels primarily in the standup as he has racked up plenty of knockouts during his UFC run, and he also has slick submissions on the mat. His biggest weakness is his takedown defense, as he has been taken down many times in the UFC, especially at middleweight. Going up against a strong grappler who is strong in taking the fight to the mat such as de Ridder, this could be a tough matchup for Holland.

De Ridder is 34 and he is 1-0 in the UFC. The Dutch fighter made his UFC debut last year and picked up a submission win over veteran Gerald Meerschaert. He is an incredible grappler who has won 12 out of his 18 career victories by way of submission. His ground game is as good as it gets. His standup is a work in progress, but it sets up his ground game. Going up against Holland, it is clear that de Ridder is going to want to get this fight to the mat as soon as he can. If he can get the takedown, then he should be able to win the fight. If it stays standing, however, it could turn into a bad night for de Ridder, meaning the takedown is the key to winning the fight.

De Ridder has a superior ground game, and if he can take Holland down, he should be able to get the submission. I am going with de Ridder to pull off the small upset here at -105 odds, and I favor him to win by submission for a prop bet.

UFC 311 Best Bet: Reiner de Ridder wins at -105 with DraftKings Sportsbook