UFC 319 Odds, Picks, Predictions & UFC Best Bets for Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
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The Octagon travels to the United Center in Chicago, Illinois, this Saturday for UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev. We have 15 fights on the slate, including the main event between UFC middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis and challenger Khamzat Chimaev. In the latest edition of the Bookies.com Best Bets, we will take a deeper look at the main event plus two other fights on the card from a betting perspective.
In the latest edition of the Bookies.com Best Bets, we will break down the headliner and give you our UFC picks for the other two key fights.
UFC odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook Review.
UFC 319 Main Event Best Bet
Khamzat Chimaev (-245) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (+200)
In the main event of UFC 319, we have UFC middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis defending his belt against Khamzat Chimaev. Despite being the champion, Du Plessis is a +200 underdog, and I favor him to win this fight.
Chimaev is 31, and he is 8-0 in the UFC. The Russian joined the UFC in 2020, and he has won every fight so far inside the Octagon, while competing at both welterweight and middleweight. He is one of the best grapplers in the UFC, and he has shown incredible toughness inside the Octagon as well. That being said, he doesn’t fight that often, and he has shown some holes in his game as far as his cardio goes. It will be interesting to see how he performs here against Du Plessis in what is the biggest step up in competition so far in his MMA career. He has a chance to win the fight, but he may also be overvalued here as the favorite despite being the challenger.
Du Plessis is 31, and he is 9-0 in the UFC. The South African is the UFC middleweight champion, having won the belt in 2024 and having since successfully defended it twice. Du Plessis is a phenomenal fighter who, while unorthodox in his form, is very effective in his style. He has powerful striking, a strong ground game, and he can go 25 minutes no problem. He is a fantastic champion and one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport. While he is the underdog in this fight, he has a good chance to pull off the upset and is a good dog to bet on.
Chimaev will have a good chance to finish this fight within the first two rounds, but should he not get the job done, then this fight shifts considerably in Du Plessis’s favor as the fight goes on. I have a feeling the champ will prove why he is the best in the world by surviving Chimaev’s early onslaught, dragging this fight into deep waters, and becoming the first man to finish Chimaev in another successful title defense. Take Du Plessis to win as a +200 underdog, and look for him to win this fight by late knockout.
UFC 319 Best Bet: Dricus Du Plessis wins at +200 with DraftKings Sportsbook .
Other 319 Best Bets
Carlos Prates (-250) vs. Geoff Neal (+205)
At welterweight, we have Carlos Prates taking on Geoff Neal. Prates is a -250 favorite, and I favor him to win this fight.
Prates is 31, and he is 4-1 in the UFC. The Brazilian opened up his UFC career with four straight knockout wins before losing a close decision to Ian Machado Garry in his last bout. He is one of the best strikers in the welterweight division, and he packs a serious punch. He has shown he has the ability to go five hard rounds as well. While he did lose his last fight, the fact that he went the distance with one of the top contenders is a good sign as Prates moves forward. He now gets the chance to take on another striker when he battles Neal in this fight.
Neal is 34, and he is 8-4 in the UFC. The American is a tremendous striker with solid technique and big power. He also has very good takedown defense. The problem with Neal is that he doesn’t fight much anymore, and when he does, he can suffer from periods of inactivity within his fights, where he doesn’t throw as many strikes as his opponents. He is a very good welterweight, but probably not someone who is at a near-elite level right now like Prates is.
Look for Prates to be the more effective striker throughout this fight, landing the bigger shots on the durable Neal and winning the fight on the judges’ scorecards, if not scoring a knockout victory. Prates is a confident pick here as a -250 favorite.
UFC 319 Best Bet: Carlos Prates wins at -250 with DraftKings Sportsbook .
Diego Ferreira (-155) vs. King Green (+130)
Also on the card is a lightweight bout between Diego Ferreira and King Green. Ferreira is a -155 favorite, and I believe he gets his hand raised.
Ferreira is 40, and he is 10-6 in the UFC. The Brazilian first joined the UFC in 2014, so he has been in the Octagon for over a decade. He has been fighting some of the best lightweights in the world during that time, and he has picked up some impressive victories, plus some tough defeats. He is a very good striker with knockout power, and he also has submissions on the mat. His durability is always a concern, but he has looked better in recent years. While he might not be a title contender, Ferreira is still one of the top gatekeepers in the lightweight division.
Green is 38, and he is 13-12-1, 1 NC in the UFC. The American has been in the UFC since 2013, so he has tons of experience fighting at the highest level of the sport. At times, Green has been one of the top lightweights in the sport, but his record is barely above .500, showing how inconsistent he is. He does have fantastic boxing skills, but his chin is going, and it’s a worry anytime he stands and trades with his opponents. Green has a chance to beat Ferreira if he can keep this fight standing and outbox him, but he is the inferior MMA fighter in this particular fight.
Ferreira may be 40, but he is still a solid fighter, and I can’t say the same about Green, who seems to be nearing the end. Look for Ferreira to mix up his striking and grappling, and potentially even finish Green in this spot. Take Ferreira to win as a -155 favorite.
UFC Vegas 109 Best Bet: Gabriella Fernandes wins at -440 with DraftKings Sportsbook .
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