The world’s leading MMA promotion is back again this Saturday night for UFC Vegas 49. The card features 12 fights in total, including the headliner between Islam Makhachev and Bobby Green.

We’ll break down the main event and give our best UFC betting predictions for that fight, along with our best bets for the rest of the card. Keep reading below for our UFC picks and UFC Vegas 49 preview!

Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green Odds

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UFC Vegas 49 Betting Analysis: Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green

The main event of UFC Vegas 49 is a five-round catchweight bout between Islam Makhachev and Bobby Green, who took the fight on short notice after Beneil Dariush broke his leg. Due to the short notice, the fighters agreed to fight at a catchweight of 160lbs. Makhachev is a massive -900 favorite, while Green is a +600 underdog at betting sites.

It was just two weeks ago at UFC 271 where Green defeated Nasrat Haqparast via decision. If you remember, we actually recommended Green as a short favorite in that fight, and we also hit on him winning by decision at +140. I’m still high on Green, but MMA is all about matchups, and this looks like a tough one. Although Green is a fantastic boxer on the feet, that won’t matter if Makhachev is able to get him to the mat and grind him out.

Islam Makhachev (-900) vs. Bobby Green (+600) Prediction

As fun as it would be to see Green upset the apple cart here, it just seems very unlikely. Makhahev is riding a nine-fight win streak into this fight and he has been absolutely destroying everyone in his path. There’s no doubt Green is a great fighter, but Makhachev is next level. There’s a reason why he is a -900 betting favorite on betting apps, after all. The books aren’t stupid.

Makhachev is going to win this fight, the only question is does he finish Green? Given it’s a five-round fight, I’d favor a stoppage, and likely by submission. Give me Makhachev to win outright at -900, and for a prop take Makhachev to win by submission at -110 odds.

The Pick: Islam Makhachev at -900 at DraftKings

Alternative Pick: Islam Makhachev wins via submission at -110 with DraftKings

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Other UFC Vegas 49 Best Bets

Gregory Rodrigues (-160) vs. Armen Petrosyan (+140)

Opening up the main card is a middleweight bout between Gregory Rodrigues and Armen Petrosyan. This should be a fun fight between two knockout artists. Rodrigues is a -160 favorite, while Petrosyan is a +140 underdog. Once again, I fancy an underdog bet in this fight.

I’m actually pretty high on both fighters in this matchup, but MMA is also about the style matchups, and I believe this matchup heavily favors Petrosyan. The main reason is Rodrigues leaves his chin high up in the air and exposed, and it’s cost him in the past with several brutal knockout losses. Petrosyan is an extremely technical striker who is able to land powerful shots with incredible accuracy. Rodrigues’ chin is just a massive target for Petrosyan.

Rodrigues is probably the better overall fighter due to his grappling ability, but a fighter without a chin is like a warrior without a shield. I don’t think Rodrigues is going to be able to take the shots from Petrosyan, and I expect him to get knocked out. This is a great spot to bet on Petrosyan as a +140 underdog, and also a chance to take Petrosyan by TKO at +200 odds.

The Pick: Armen Petrosyan at +140 with DraftKings

Alternative Pick: Armen Petrosyan wins via TKO at +200 with DraftKings

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Fares Ziam (-120) vs. Terrance McKinney (+100)

One of the preliminary card bouts that I’m looking forward to is a lightweight match between Fares Ziam and Terrance McKinney. Ziam is a -120 favorite, while McKinney is a +100 underdog. I can’t help but feel like these odds should be flipped around. It’s a close fight on paper, but I do believe McKinney deserves to be favored, so there’s value on him as a dog.

McKinney made his UFC debut last year and he only needed seven seconds to knock out Matt Frevola in what was an incredible UFC debut. In fact, McKinney has won four straight fights in the first round, and three of those finishes came in the first minute of the fight. This guy is an explosive striker with heavy KO power and he’s only 27, so McKinney can still improve. Oh, and he’s also a very capable wrestler, making him a well-rounded mixed martial artist.

Ziam is officially 2-1 in the UFC on paper, but I’d argue he should be 0-2-1 right now as I don’t believe he should have gotten the decision in those fights. I just haven’t been impressed with Ziam at all in the UFC. He seems like a point fighter, and not a great one at that. For a guy who has such a long reach, he doesn’t use it all that well. In his last fight with Luigi Vendramini, he’s really lucky the judges didn’t score it a draw and he got the win. Overall I just haven’t seen much out of Ziam that has blown me away, whereas McKinney is a really special fighter.

I’m taking the value on the dog and I’m picking McKinney to win this fight as a +100 underdog. For added value, take him to win by knockout at +240 odds.

The Pick: Terrance McKinney at +100 with DraftKings

Alternative Pick: Terrance McKinney wins via TKO at +240 with DraftKings

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