The Octagon heads back to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 78: Luque vs. dos Anjos. The main event features a five-round welterweight fight between Vicente Luque and Rafael dos Anjos, and on top of that, there are 12 preliminary card bouts, so check out our main event UFC picks as well as our breakdown for two other bouts right here at Bookies.com.

UFC Vegas 78 Main Event Best Bet

Rafael dos Anjos (-120) vs. Vicente Luque (+100)

In the main event of UFC Vegas 78, we have Rafael dos Anjos taking on Vicente Luque. Dos Anjos is a -120 betting apps favorite to win, and I believe he will get his hand raised in this bout.

Dos Anjos is the former UFC lightweight champion and at age 38 he is still fighting at a high level. In his last bout, the Brazilian moved back up to welterweight and submitted Bryan Barberena. 

While he has typically competed as a lightweight during his UFC career, he’s also done quite well as a welterweight with a 5-4 record in the weight class while fighting high-level opposition. Dos Anjos is not only an incredible grappler, but he is also a very solid striker as well. Against Luque, though, he has a clear path to victory with grappling. If dos Anjos can get this fight to the ground, he should be able to grind out the win on the scorecards or get a sub. 

Luque is no slouch by any means, and at age 31, he’s not old, either. That being said, he appears to be on a decline. The Brazilian was knocked out for the first time in his MMA career against Geoff Neal in his last bout, and prior to that, he lost a decision to Belal Muhammad. 

He has been showing holes in both his striking defense and his takedown defense, and it’s led to him losing those bouts. Those two losses came against top-10 opponents, but they weren’t the most impressive performances. Against dos Anjos, Luque needs to keep this fight standing. On the feet, he absolutely can get the knockout. 

But if this fight goes to the ground, Luque will likely be in serious trouble just based on the stylistic matchup of this bout against dos Anjos.

I believe dos Anjos will have a significant edge in wrestling and grappling in this fight. Instead of standing and trading with Luque, look for dos Anjos to get this fight to the mat and grind it out on the ground. Give me dos Anjos as a -120 favorite and take him to win by decision for a prop.

UFC Vegas 78 Best Bet: Rafael dos Anjos wins at -120 at DraftKings Sportsbook  

UFC Vegas 78 Best Prop Bet: Rafael dos Anjos wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook  

Other UFC Vegas 78 Best Bets

Khalil Rountree (-190) vs. Chris Daukaus (+160)

In the UFC light heavyweight division, Khalil Rountree takes on Chris Daukaus. Rountree is a -190 betting favorite, and I like him to get the job done in devastating fashion.

Rountree joined the UFC back in 2016 and since then he has a 7-5, 1 NC record in the Octagon with five of those wins coming by knockout. The 33-year-old Rountree is one of the most technical and dangerous strikers in the UFC light heavyweight division, having big power in his punches as well as brutal leg kicks. 

His grappling is his weak point, but in fights against fellow strikers, he’s been doing well as of late, beating striking-based fighters in his last three bouts. Although Rountree has been inconsistent over his years in the UFC, it feels like he is finally coming into his own, and if he can beat Daukaus here, it would be a huge win for his career.

Of course, Daukaus is going to try and thwart Rountree’s ascension up the 205 lbs ladder. That’s someone worth noting here, the fact that Daukaus is moving to a new weight class. The 33-year-old Daukaus previously competed as a heavyweight, going 4-3 in the UFC with all seven of his fights ending by knockout. 

After winning his first four UFC fights and looking like a new contender in the weight class, he’s lost his last three fights by knockout and he needs to rebuild his career. The good thing is that he’s fighting someone who will want to stand and bang, so he’ll have his chances to land the KO blow. The bad thing is that he could get KO’d himself.

I don’t like the move to 205 lbs for Daukaus, and I don’t like this debut matchup for him in the weight class. Rountree is the superior striker, and he should be able to knock Daukaus out in the first round. Give me Rountree as a -190 favorite and take him to win by TKO for a prop.

UFC Vegas 78 Best Bet: Khalil Rountree wins at -190 at DraftKings Sportsbook  

UFC Vegas 78 Best Prop Bet: Khalil Rountree wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook  

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Marcus McGhee (-400) vs. JP Buys (+300)

At bantamweight, Marcus McGhee faces JP Buys. McGhee is a -400 favorite, and I fully expect him to roll.

McGhee is a bit of a late bloomer to the sport as he only turned pro in 2020. Now eight fights into his UFC career, he’s 7-1 and he won his promotional debut in the big leagues against Journey Newson earlier this year by submission on short notice. That was an incredible debut for the 33-year-old McGhee, and he’s a welcome addition to the UFC bantamweight division. 

He’s an aggressive fighter who can finish his opponents on the mat or on the feet, making him a dangerous out for anyone he faces, especially someone who is chinny like his opponent Buys.

It’s fair to say that Buys has not lived up to the expectations as he’s 0-3 in the UFC including two knockout losses. In fact, he’s been knocked down to the canvas eight times in his three UFC fights, which shows his chin is not good enough to be successful at this level of the sport. 

The 27-year-old Buys is a solid wrestler, but that skill won’t be enough for him to beat someone who is well-rounded like McGhee. If Buys is going to pull off the upset, then he’s going to have to land several takedowns. Barring that from happening, however, this is a tough matchup for him.

There is a reason why McGhee is the biggest betting favorite on the whole card, and it makes sense. McGhee should be able to find Buys’ chin and put his lights out in this one. Pick McGhee at -400 on the moneyline, and take him to win the fight by TKO as he’s likely to finish this fight.

UFC Vegas 78 Best Bet: Marcus McGhee wins at -400 at DraftKings Sportsbook  

UFC Vegas 78 Best Prop Bet: Marcus McGhee wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook