Best and Worst NFL Free Agency Signings So Far

As we hurtle towards the 2023 NFL draft on April 27, NFL teams continue to do business in free agency. This is having an impact on their Super Bowl odds at NFL betting sites, which have had a huge shakeup over the last few weeks. Let’s check out some of the biggest, best and worst free agency signings of the offseason so far. 

Javon Hargrave (DT) to the 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers have bolstered what was already a fearsome defensive line. Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead will now be joined by Javon Hargrave. His 11 sacks last season was enough for tied-14^th most in the NFL, and he’ll cause all sorts of matchup nightmares for offensive lines. He becomes the third highest-paid interior lineman in the NFL with his new deal, but this defense immediately looks like one that could win games by itself. 

With offensive weapons like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle on the roster, it’s no surprise to see the 49ers among the early favorites in the Super Bowl LVIII odds.

Derek Carr (QB) to the Saints

Derek Carr is a good, solid NFL quarterback. He should be starting somewhere, but he’s far from what you would call a needle-mover. With question marks over Alvin Kamara’s availability next season and Michael Thomas returning from another injury, the New Orleans Saints are arguably more than just some solid QB play away from a run at the Super Bowl. 

The four-year, $150 million contract given to Carr could come back to bite them. This feels like a team that’s fast approaching a full rebuild. That often starts with drafting a franchise quarterback, which will be harder to commit to having invested so much in Carr. 

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Rashaad Penny (RB) to the Eagles

Penny is one of the most frustrating players in the NFL. When he’s on the field, he looks electric. But they say the most important ability in the NFL is availability, and that’s something he’s lacked throughout his career. Despite being 27, the former Seattle Seahawk has amassed just 337 rushing attempts in five seasons, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. He looks like a great signing for the Philadelphia Eagles at the cost, having signed Penny to a one-year, $1.35 million contract. 

If he can stay healthy (a big if), he could post some massive numbers behind the Eagles’ top-five run-blocking O-line. If he can’t, then they can easily move on from him. It’s a low-risk, potentially high-upside signing. 

Matt Gay (K) to the Colts

Matt Gay is one of a number of questionable free agency signings for the Indianapolis Colts. His inclusion here isn’t a knock on his ability as a kicker, since he’s converted 92.5% of his field-goal attempts over the last three seasons, with a long of 58 yards, showing he has a big leg. He’s also been successful on nearly 98% (95-of-97) of PAT attempts. It’s the size of the contract that’s eyebrow-raising. 

A reported $22.5 million contract over four years, with $10 million guaranteed at signing is a huge investment, and probably one that the Colts would have been better off making to bolster their roster elsewhere. If we see the same Indy next season as we did last, then their kicker, whoever it is, won’t have too many PATs to convert, and three points from their drives won’t be enough to keep them in games. 

An honorable mention goes to Allen Lazard’s move to the New York Jets on a four-year, $44 million contract. Lazard himself isn’t a game-changer for the Jets, who recently traded wide receiver Elijah Moore to the Cleveland Browns. But if it’s a pointer towards Aaron Rodgers’ next team then it could be the free agency signing that has the biggest impact on next season. The Jets are already +1200 (12/1) for the Super Bowl with some NFL betting apps, so it appears the Rodgers odds slash has already happened. Watch this space.