Love's Bid For Arc Glory Hangs On The Parisian Weather

By Gavin Beech

Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EST

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Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe 2020 Latest Odds

It’s raining at Longchamp as we close in on one of the most anticipated Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe’s in living memory, and that significantly changes the dynamics of not only the feature contest on Sunday, but all the other big races that support the Arc.

Confidence in Love appears to have evaporated on the basis that she isn’t going to be able to show her best on the prevailing ground, but I have learned over the years that assuming any horse will or won’t handle a particular type of ground despite there being no formbook evidence can be a very dangerous game.

The dual Oaks winner may not even take her chance, I have no idea what Aidan O’Brien is thinking, but one thing is for sure, I wouldn’t be in a rush to lay a three-year-old filly of such obvious class at 4.0+ on the exchanges given the recent record of such animals in this race.

As Love edges in one direction, Enable goes the opposite way but she is far too short now, especially as conditions are going to blunt her speed. The juice has also now gone out of the price of stablemate Stradivarius, although I do think everything is coming right for him now. I certainly wouldn’t be put off by the booking of Olivier Peslier.

As the race draws nearer, I’m also warming to the chances of last year’s third, Sottsass, who has been building up to peak form with each start this year and there are no ground worries for him, while his trainer is making some pretty encouraging noises about his chances.

Win or lose, I expect him to post his biggest performance of the season which is probably the reason why jockey Cristian Demuro has chosen to ride him instead of Raabihah, who is better than she was able to show in her trial but she hasn’t raced on ground anything like what she faces this weekend.

About the Author

Gavin Beech

More About Gavin

Gavin Beech has worked in the betting industry for almost 20 years and is an experienced sports betting writer and tipster. He has worked for MailOnline and the Racing Post.

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