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Kansas vs. Villanova Final Four Odds, Picks & Predictions

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com

Dan Kilbridge  | 5 mins

Kansas vs. Villanova Final Four Odds, Picks & Predictions

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The Kansas Jayhawks are the last remaining No. 1 seed and looking to stay on top in Saturday’s Final Four matchup with Villanova.

Bill Self and the Jayhawks are back in this spot for the first time since 2018, looking for the school’s sixth national championship and first since 2008. Meanwhile, Villanova, which beat Kansas in the Final Four in 2018 en route to the national title, is looking to advance to the championship game for the third time in the past six years.

There’s no questioning the credentials for either program in what should be a very high-level national semifinal.

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Kansas is a -4.5 favorite at sportsbooks and betting sites having been bet up slightly, with the line opening at Kansas -4.

Both teams have been overlooked at times in this tournament, but none of that matters anymore. It’s win or go home and New Orleans should be popping for the all-blueblood semifinal matchups.

Villanova vs. Kansas Key Matchups

Collin Gillespie vs. Ochai Agbaji:

These two senior guards have been leading the charge all season. Gillespie is back for the Wildcats after suffering a season-ending knee injury ahead of the 2021 NCAA Tournament. Agbaji is one of the frontrunners for the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player honor after averaging 18.9 points in the regular season. Jermaine Samuels has been a huge complement in Villanova’s backcourt, but Gillespie runs the show and needs to keep everyone composed to pull off the upset.

Remy Martin vs. Villanova Backcourt:

Impressive as Ogbaji has been, senior Remy Martin has been a massive sparkplug for this Kansas offense all month. He came off the bench to score 23 points in a regional win over Providence after averaging 8.6 points in the regular season. He also hit a pair of threes and scored 20 points in the win over Crieghton. Villanova has enough to worry about with Ogbaji and can’t afford to let Martin start heating up. Keeping a lid on him should be a major priority.

Kansas vs. Villanova Final Four Odds, Picks & Predictions 1

Villanova vs. Kansas Moneyline

The Jayhawks are a significant favorite on the NCAAB odds moneyline at -195 . Villanova is the underdog with +165 odds. The Wildcats are coming off an upset win over Houston in which they were also significant underdogs.

Both teams carry nine-game winning streaks into this one as the Jayhawks and Wildcats each won their conference tournaments. Villanova got the better of this Final Four matchup in 2018, but that was a more complete team. Self and the Jayhawks have been in this spot before and have the roster to take it further this time.

We’re rolling with Kansas moneyline -195 in this one.

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Villanova vs. Kansas Point Spread

Kansas is the -4.5 favorite for this one and hasn’t had serious trouble in any matchup so far. The Jayhawks did fail to cover by a hair in the win over Providence, but otherwise they’ve been taking care of business at 6-2 against the spread in the last eight games. Villanova has been even more proficient at sportsbooks having covered all four tournament games thus far.

We think this Kansas team just has too much firepower for a team like Villanova, with so much emphasis on every possession. The Wildcats are just 2-3-1 against the spread as an underdog this season and haven’t faced an opponent as overwhelming as the Jayhawks so far this month.

We’re taking Kansas to cover -4.5 in the first Final Four matchup.

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Villanova vs. Kansas Total

The total is set at a relatively low and hovering around 133 ahead of the first semifinal game. Villanova is one of the most methodical teams in the country and hasn’t allowed more than 61 points through four tournament games. But the Jayhawks are locking down as well and only one opponent has exceeded 61 points so far in the big dance.

Overall, the total has gone Under in six of the last seven games for Villanova. Kansas hasn’t been peppering the Over either, with the total going Under in four of the last six games.

While some will be inclined to take the Over due to Kansas’ offense, these Jayhawks don’t get enough credit on the other end. They’re a very strong defensive team and could give Villanova serious problems in the halfcourt. This won’t be a track meet and we like the Under in this one at the Superdome.

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About the Author

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com
Dan Kilbridge
Handicapper Dan Kilbridge writes about college football, MLB and other sports for Bookies.com after spending three years covering Tiger Woods’ comeback and the PGA for Golfweek.