Alabama vs LSU Predictions, Picks & Betting Preview

What was once the marquee game of the SEC regular season has lost a great deal of its luster in 2021. Not only does Alabama already have a loss on its record, but LSU appears in free fall after dropping three of four and announcing that coach Ed Orgeron will leave at the end of the season.

So no, this game is not the battle of the SEC West titans that it’s typically been. But these remain name-brand programs in a prime-time matchup, so still expect some heightened interest from those making college football picks.

And that LSU moneyline will surely tempt some with visions of cashing in on an upset in Tuscaloosa - where the Tigers won when they last played there in 2019.

Odds are current as of publication. Betting sites may indicate odds changes closer to kickoff.

LSU vs Alabama Key Matchups

LSU’s run game vs. Alabama’s front seven: Why are the Tigers so bad? Because the program of Leonard Fournette and Clyde Edwards-Helaire can’t run the ball. LSU ranks 110th nationally in rushing, managing only 3.6 yards per carry, and Alabama’s front seven is fifth nationally against the run. LSU will need to manage something on the ground to keep this from becoming a rout.

LSU’s secondary vs. Bryce Young: The Alabama quarterback is averaging 306.6 passing yards per game, and completing 70% of his attempts. If LSU’s secondary is going to slow him down, they’ll have to be better than their national ranking of 95th in pass efficiency defense.

LSU’s offensive line vs. Will Anderson Jr.: The Alabama linebacker leads the nation in tackles for loss with 15.5, and is fifth nationally in sacks with nine. He’ll be the key factor in disrupting Tigers quarterback Max Johnson, and making LSU even more one-dimensional than it already is.

5 Key LSU vs Alabama Stats

34: Number of consecutive games in which Alabama has scored at least 30 points.

11-5: Alabama’s record against the spread in home games since the start of the 2019 season.

3-5: LSU’s record against the spread against ranked opponents over the past two seasons.

2001: The last time LSU entered the Alabama game unranked in the AP Top 25 poll.

101-33: Combined score of Alabama’s last two victories after the loss at Texas A&M.

LSU vs Alabama Weather Forecast

Forecasts early in the week indicate that conditions will be dry and brisk when the Tide and Tigers kick off at 7 p.m. ET in Bryant-Denny Stadium. Temperatures will hover around 50 degrees at the game’s start, and the chance of rain should be minimal. Weather shouldn’t be an issue for those perusing the college football odds on this one.

LSU vs Alabama Moneyline

Alabama is a -100000 home favorite, according to sportsbooks, while LSU is a +1600 underdog. Hey, we understand the temptation to believe that Coach O can engineer a rousing upset in the biggest game he has left at LSU. But facts don’t support it.

Alabama has won nine of the last 10 in this series, the lone loss coming to Joe Burrow and company in 2019. The Tide are unbeaten at home since. And Orgeron just isn’t a very good Xs and Os coach - one reason he’s being shown the door. For those into college football betting, this wager is a hard pass.

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LSU vs Alabama Point Spread

Alabama is a 27.5-point favorite, according to betting sites, although that number fluctuates depending on the book. Bettors can really help themselves by shopping around and looking for a line under 28 points (we found this one at TwinSpires).

Although Alabama has beaten the spread in four of its last five - covering numbers of 45 and 24.5 in the process - we’re most comfortable with a spread of under 28 if you can get it. LSU has covered just once in its last four, that in an upset of Florida, and Alabama won’t let the Tigers score at will as they did in that game. We like Alabama against any spread here, particularly at 27.5.

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LSU vs Alabama Totals

The total for this game is 65.5, according to betting apps. Although Alabama is second nationally in scoring offense with an average of 45.9 points per game, the Tide have fallen under the total in two of their last four - largely because opponents haven’t been able to score very often.

LSU has fallen under in four of seven, and that 49-42 shootout victory over the Gators looks more and more like an aberration when you realize they’ve managed just 19, 21 and 17 points in their last three losses. Alabama will put up points, and this total should be right around the number, but we’re leaning a hair under. You can get Under 66 (-110) at DraftKings.

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