By Dan Kilbridge | | 6 mins
Alabama vs Ole Miss Odds, Betting Predictions & Tips To Back
Does Lane Kiffin really have what it takes to go into Tuscaloosa and lead an upset win over Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide? We’re about to find out.
Kiffin’s Ole Miss squad is 3-0 and looks like it could be for real behind another explosive Rebels offense. No. 1 Alabama already survived one tough test in a 31-29 win at Florida, but the Tide defenders are up against it in what should be a fireworks show with potential to shake up the entire SEC in Week 5.
No former Saban assistant has ever gone on to beat him head-to-head in a college game and the Tide are a big home favorite. It would still be unwise to sleep on this Rebels offense in a game that suddenly looks way more intriguing than it did back in August.
Let’s take a deeper look into this matchup and what it means from a college football betting perspective.
Ole Miss vs. Alabama Key Matchups
Matt Corral vs. Alabama Secondary: The Tide DBs are always Saban’s pride and joy. Can they step up and shut down the current Heisman Trophy betting favorite? Alabama’s front seven should do a good job keeping him in the pocket after he torched Tulane with four rushing touchdowns. Corral needs to make big throws for explosive plays because the only way to beat Alabama is 60 minutes of relentless offense, answering score after score with almost no room for error. This is the most important matchup in the country this week, and we can’t wait to see how it unfolds.
Alabama RBs vs. Ole Miss Front Seven: Ole Miss knows Alabama quarterback Bryce Young will get his. That’s fine. The Rebels need to commit to stopping the run, even if it costs them a few points in the early going. The Gators hung tough with the Tide largely because they held them to 91 rushing yards. Young is dangerous enough without a ton of help from his running backs, and the Rebels need to put him in third-and-long situations as often as possible. Ole Miss’ run defense has been good so far, and the Rebels can’t let Tide tailback Brian Robinson Jr. have too much room in the open field if they hope to pull off the upset.
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4 Key Stats For Ole Miss vs. Alabama
635.3: Yards per game for the Ole Miss offense, best in the nation by more than 75 yards.
24.9: Yards per catch from Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams, the Tide’s biggest home run threat on offense .
15: Consecutive Alabama wins against SEC opponents, dating back to a 2019 loss at Auburn.
106.7: Penalty yards per game for the Rebels, most in the nation through three games.
Ole Miss vs. Alabama Weather Forecast
No rain is expected Saturday and both offenses should be able to operate free of weather-related impediments, with temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s for kickoff. Giddy up.
Ole Miss vs. Alabama Moneyline
Alabama is a big moneyline favorite because Alabama is always a big moneyline favorite. The Tide have now been favored in 85 consecutive games and usually reward bettors who lay the big number. Alabama is currently -630 to win this one outright, providing little value for the promise of a sure thing.
Or is it?
Ole Miss is a +450 underdog and we recommend a light sprinkle. An offense like this has more than a puncher’s chance against any team in the country, even big, bad Alabama. The numbers speak for themselves on that side of the ball and the Rebels defense has looked better this season – albeit against relatively weak competition. Maybe it’s all a façade, but we’re putting our trust in this Ole Miss offense and think they’ve got a legitimate shot at an upset.
Alabama vs. Ole Miss Point Spread
Apparently we’re not the only ones high on the Rebels’ chances. Alabama was a -20 favorite on the opening line on betting apps and Ole Miss bettors hammered it so hard the line was down to Alabama -14.5 by Monday morning.
The market has since settled down with little-to-no point spread movement throughout the week. We just don’t see this Alabama defense getting enough stops to keep the Rebels at bay by more than two touchdowns. Ole Miss does take a ton of stupid penalties and things can quickly snowball at the end of video game-type shootouts, but we expect the Rebels offense to overpower the Tide for stretches and do enough to secure a cover.
Ole Miss vs. Alabama Total
This is officially a cartoon total, one that shows what college football is all about at the highest level these days. The Over/Under is 80.5 for Saturday’s matchup at Bryant-Denny Stadium, which obviously features two explosive offenses. It’s still a jarring number to see on a real life betting slip.
In reality, it’s not an outrageous number. The combined score was 111 points for this matchup last year and 90 in 2019. The current total of 80.5 would require 1.4 points per minute to go Over, and we don’t think it’s out of the question at all. These huge numbers are always a no-play for us at sportsbooks, but we definitely wouldn’t put our money on the Under.