Few early-October college football games can promise season-long significance, but Saturday night’s matchup between Arizona State and UCLA is shaping up to be one of the exceptions. Now that preseason Pac-12 South favorite USC has suffered two conference losses, either the Sun Devils or the Bruins can position themselves atop the division when they meet at the Rose Bowl at 7:30 p.m. local time (10:30 p.m. ET).

Current college football odds place No. 20 UCLA as the modest home favorite, which is their first time being favored in this annual matchup since 2017. Both teams rebounded from upset losses to win last week, and now they both have a chance to edge ahead in the conference standings. Check out our college football picks for this matchup.

Odds are current as of publication. Betting sites may adjust odds as we get closer to kickoff.

Arizona State vs UCLA Stats

Thompson-Robinson back in action: UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson was forced out of last week’s game with a shoulder injury, but he returned in time to help the Bruins seal a win. He returned to practice Monday without issue, noting that the injury was on his non-throwing arm, and we should shrug off his “questionable” distinction ahead of kickoff.

Run-heavy rivals: Few teams in the country run as often as these two. Based on percentage of offensive plays, UCLA (65.1%) and Arizona State (59.6%) rank second and third in the Pac-12 in rush attempts.

Bruins’ brick wall: For as much as UCLA likes to run, the Bruins aren’t very generous about letting their opponents do the same. The Bruins rank fifth in the country in run defense (64 yards/game allowed), allowing just 2.44 yards/rush.

White will be involved: Even if Arizona State running back Rachaad White struggles to establish the ground game, the Sun Devils will make sure to use him as a central figure in the offense. White, who has 443 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns through four games, is tied for fourth nationally in receptions among running backs (20). He’s also the team’s leading receiver (187 yards).

Penalized profusely: The Sun Devils are still the most penalized team in Division I football, both in total infractions (43) and penalty yards (409). Seven penalties in last week’s game can be viewed as a step in the right direction, but there’s a lot of work left to do.

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Arizona State vs UCLA Weather Forecast

Saturday will be a beautiful night in Pasadena, California, but did you expect anything different? Clear sky, zero precipitation, light wind and temperatures in the mid-to-high-70s.

Arizona State vs UCLA Moneyline

Tight moneylines such as this one means that college football betting value exists on both sides. Arizona State (+142) is an underdog for just the second time in its past 11 games, so we don’t have much recent history to work with there (the Sun Devils covered an 11.5-point spread against USC last season in a 28-27 loss).

We prefer UCLA’s -176 line on betting apps because the Bruins have straight-up wins in three of their past four meetings with the Sun Devils. That includes last year, when Thompson-Robinson led the way with a touchdown through the air and another on the ground in a 25-18 win. Grab this bet at BetMGM Sportsbook.

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Arizona State vs UCLA Point Spread

Further to that point about UCLA’s recent success against Arizona State, the Bruins have covered in four consecutive games between these teams. Sportsbooks are asking for 3.5 points from the Bruins on Saturday, which is the exact spread UCLA covered on the road against Stanford last week.

Track records matter. UCLA is 3-1 ATS, and Arizona State is just 1-3. Combine that with UCLA’s recent success — and the fact that the Bruins’ run defense is designed to take away exactly what the Sun Devils want to do — and you’ll see why we’re bullish on the Bruins at DraftKings and on our favorite Arizona sports betting sites.

Arizona State vs UCLA Totals

The 56.5-point total is a mark the Bruins have surpassed in each of their past three games. The Sun Devils, on the other hand, have only hit that once in four games. Both offenses have demonstrated an ability to put up points, but we think their run-heavy tendencies will keep this game on the side of the Under. Check out the odds at FanDuel.

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