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Auburn vs Arkansas Predictions, Picks & Betting Preview

David Caraviello for Bookies.com

David Caraviello  | 5 mins

Auburn vs Arkansas Predictions, Picks & Betting Preview

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The Arkansas Razorbacks have been among the most reliable covers in college football betting, and they rewarded bettors again last weekend despite losing a game that might be remembered as the best this season. Ole Miss stopped a two-point conversion attempt on the final play to win a 52-51 shootout, though the Hogs covered as 5-point underdogs and the game went well over the total of 67.

It was another matter for Auburn, which was ripped by new No. 1 Georgia and failed to cover as 14.5-point home underdogs. Losers of three of their last four against the spread, the Tigers now travel to Fayetteville, Ark., for a showdown against the Razorbacks, who they’ve beaten five straight times. Expect a lot of interest for one of the top early games on the Saturday schedule.

All college football odds are current as of publication. Betting sites may indicate odds changes closer to kickoff.

Auburn vs Arkansas Key Matchups

Auburn’s defense vs. KJ Jefferson: Jefferson was spectacular in the loss to Ole Miss, accounting for six touchdowns, three on the ground. The Arkansas quarterback is very good at making plays with his feet, adding an element Auburn’s defense hasn’t seen thus far this season.

Auburn’s offensive line vs. Tre Williams: Bo Nix was sacked four times in the loss to Georgia and hassled all afternoon, leading to yet another uneven outing from the Auburn quarterback. Williams, a 6-5 defensive lineman, is fifth in the SEC in sacks and leads an Arkansas pass rush that’s racked up 41 tackles for loss.

Auburn’s secondary vs. Treylon Burks: Memo to Auburn – Do not leave Burks in one-on-one coverage. The 6-3 Arkansas wideout repeatedly burned Ole Miss single coverage last weekend and is now second in the SEC in receiving yards. He could be a handful for an Auburn secondary that’s 52nd nationally against the pass.

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5 Key Auburn vs Arkansas Stats

12-4: Arkansas’ record against the spread under coach Sam Pittman, hired prior to the start of the 2020 season. That includes a 5-1 mark this year.

6-5: Auburn’s road record against the spread under starting quarterback Bo Nix, who has held that position since the start of the 2019 season.

156: Average passing yards per game allowed by the Arkansas defense, good enough to rank ninth nationally.

23: Dropped passes by Auburn through six games, most in the SEC, according to AL.com. That includes seven drops against Georgia last weekend.

597: The cumulative number of rushing yards allowed by Arkansas in back-to-back losses to Georgia and Ole Miss, according to the Democrat-Gazette.

Auburn vs Arkansas Weather Forecast

Forecasts early in the week show an ideal Saturday for football in Northwest Arkansas, with temperatures around 60 at kickoff and zero chance of rain. But those making college football picks should still keep an eye out, given that rain is scheduled for the previous three days, and any slowing of that front could impact game day.

Auburn vs Arkansas Moneyline

Arkansas is a -188 moneyline favorite, according to sportsbooks, with Auburn a +152 underdog. While both teams have work to do after losses last weekend, Auburn is in a more precarious position.

Barring heroics by backup QB T.J. Finley against Georgia State and Nix against LSU, the Tigers could very well be on a four-game skid. Their offensive numbers were padded by routs of Akron and Alabama State, they were manhandled by Georgia at the line, and they need a lot to go right to win. None of that inspires confidence on the road against a dynamic Arkansas team. Save the moneyline for another day and another bet.

Auburn vs Arkansas Point Spread

Arkansas is a 3.5-point favorite, according to betting sites. The Hogs’ ATS record under Pittman speaks for itself, and it’s easy to like the way the Razorbacks can win in so many different ways. This is also a great defense against the pass, which could spell trouble for Nix, and at times this season it’s been dominant at the line of scrimmage.

Auburn has failed to cover as an underdog of 3.5 points or greater this season. The Tigers also have serious gaps in their pass defense, and it’s easy to envision the Razorbacks winning by a touchdown or more. Grab Arkansas at BetMGM.

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Auburn vs Arkansas Totals

The total is 53.5, according to betting apps. This is the most vexing wager on this game, given how we’ve seen both teams put up lots of points and play low-scoring grinders. But Auburn’s claim of 35 points per game is a sham; take out Akron and Alabama State, and it drops to 22. If anything, Arkansas is the team that can put up points, scoring 40 on Texas in addition to 51 at Ole Miss.

Auburn isn’t as good as either one of those teams, and we like the Hogs pulling away in the second half behind an offensive burst that pushes the game Over at DraftKings.

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About the Author

David Caraviello for Bookies.com
David Caraviello
Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.