The college football betting season is nearing the home stretch entering Week 9.

So much of the current futures picture at sportsbooks and betting sites is fragile. One big upset could throw off the entire College Football Playoff outlook, swing conference championship participants and shuffle up the Heisman Trophy race.

Everything is still up for grabs in the Power 5 conferences. It’s too early to pencil Alabama-Georgia in for the SEC title game, tempting as it may be. Same goes for Ohio State in the Big Ten. These little narratives and paths we carve for futures action on betting apps can all come crashing down on a given week.

It doesn’t look like any of the big favorites are in danger this week, with few marquee games outside of a top-10 rivalry showdown as Michigan plays at Michigan State. But that’s the beauty of college football – the earth-shattering upsets and narrative-flipping results can come at any time, any week of the season.

For now, we’re focused on the games at hand in Week 9. We checked all the college football spreads for Saturday, and these are our top 5 Saturday college football picks.

Saturday College Football Week 9 Best Bets

Michigan State ATS over Michigan

Sorry that we’re not ready to throw a parade for the resurgence of Michigan football after wins over Northwestern and Nebraska. The Wolverines haven’t played a ranked opponent this season, nor have they proven they can pass downfield with consistency. And they’re giving 4.5 points despite their 4-9 record against Michigan State since 2008.

There’s room to run on this Michigan defense, and the Spartans have the far more explosive attack on offense. Spartan Stadium is going to be a madhouse, all the pressure is on the Wolverines and Michigan State has its rival right where it wants it yet again. We’re all over Spartans +4.5 at DraftKings.

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Baylor ATS over Texas

Texas got its face melted off for the second week in a row last time out, getting outscored 16-0 in the fourth quarter in a 32-24 loss to Oklahoma State. That’s after they blew a 38-20 halftime lead against Oklahoma. Morale is low. And this is another bad matchup.

Baylor averages nearly 240 rushing yards per game and the Longhorns can’t stop the run. The Bears have the better defense and should be the far more focused team coming off a bye week, with the Longhorns just trying to avoid another embarrassment. We’re on Baylor -3 at BetMGM.

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Georgia State ATS over Georgia Southern

This isn’t exactly the Game of the Week, but we do like a play in the Sun Belt. Georgia Southern has one of the worst defenses in the country, giving up 491.7 yards per game. The secondary is the worst in the nation with 348.3 passing yards allowed, and Georgia State has picked it up in the passing game over the last month.

Georgia Southern doesn’t pose any threat through the air – quarterback Justin Tomlin has just 507 passing yards, no touchdowns and five interceptions. Georgia Southern’s only hope is to pound the run and sustain drives, but that’s tough to do all afternoon when your secondary can’t stop anyone. We’re on the Georgia State -5.5 at FanDuel.

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Mississippi State ATS over Kentucky

Bit of a funky line here as Kentucky’s only loss came against No. 1-ranked Georgia. The public loves the Wildcats, but we’re going in the opposite direction. The Bulldogs are a strong defensive team and rank ninth nationally against the run. That’s a problem for the Wildcats, who throw for less than 200 yards a game and rely on balance.

The Bulldogs chuck it all over the field and barely try to run thanks to quarterback Will Rogers, who’s fourth in the nation with 2,546 passing yards. Kentucky’s secondary is good, but not good enough to slow down the Bulldogs for four quarters. Mississippi State +1 is the play at WynnBET.

Ole Miss ATS over Auburn

We made a promise back in 2020. We promised ourselves never to bet Bo Nix in a big game ever again. Auburn’s junior quarterback is beckoning once more with strong games against Arkansas and LSU, but we’re not taking the bait. Ole Miss’ offense has slowed down in recent weeks, but there’s still a ton to love here behind Rebels quarterback Matt Corral.

This looks like a shootout with the total set at 66, and we don’t trust Nix and the Tigers to make enough plays on offense while avoiding the big mistake down the stretch. We’re on Ole Miss +3 at Caesars Sportsbook.

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