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First College Football Coach Fired Odds: Jeff Hafley On The Hot Seat

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com

Dan Kilbridge  | 5 mins

First College Football Coach Fired Odds: Jeff Hafley On The Hot Seat

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It doesn’t take long for the college football coaching carousel to start its unforgiving rotation. 

Every team begins the season with a clean slate and new goals to achieve, whatever those may be. It’s a time for optimism and excitement for most. 

For a few programs around the country, it’s a different vibe. A handful of unfortunate coaches know the deal when practice gets underway whether they’d like to admit it or not. They know the clock is ticking and the goodwill is running low. It’s time to win, now. Their jobs depend on it. 

University officials and athletic directors have been much quicker to move on leadership changes in recent years – Scott Frost (Nebraska), Herm Edwards (Arizona State), Geoff Collins (Georgia Tech), Paul Chryst (Wisconsin) and Karl Dorrell (Colorado) were all fired before the sixth game of the 2022 season. 

Those set the dominos in place for the rest of the year and offseason, and schools know they need to act fast given the nature of today’s coaching search market. That’s a tough reality of the business these days, and it won’t be long before the first major move once the 2023 season kicks off. 

With that in mind, Bookies.com handicapper gives his hypothetical college football odds on the first coach fired* in 2023.

*List is comprised of coaches on the hot seat for on-field performance only

First College Football Coach Fired Odds

CoachSchoolOddsImplied Probability
Jeff HafleyBoston College+25028.6%
Danny GonzalezNew Mexico+40020%
Brent PryVirginia Tech+60014.3%
Tony ElliottVirginia+80011.1%
Jimbo FisherTexas A&M+10009.1%
Butch JonesArkansas State+12007.7%
Neal BrownWest Virginia+20004.8%
Tom AllenIndiana+50002%

Odds hypothetical and aren't reflective of odds on any legal betting sites or betting apps.

Jeff Hafley, Boston College +250

Hafley bought himself some goodwill two weeks ago in a 31-29 home loss to Florida State. The Eagles played their hearts out and nearly pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season. But given where this team started and where the program stands, moral victories aren’t enough for Hafley to feel good about his job security. 

It was back to business as usual this week with a 56-28 loss at Louisville. The Eagles are now -3 home favorites over Virginia and a loss to these Cavs would be another tough blow for Hafley’s outlook. 

There weren't any indications the Eagles would be competitive in that game against Florida State after a 27-24 home loss to Northern Illinois and a 31-28 home win over Holy Cross that nearly slipped away late. 

It’s easy to forget this was once a proud football institution. The Golden Eagles made it to a bowl game in 12 consecutive seasons from 1999-2010, a stretch that included seven consecutive bowl wins and three head coaches. 

But it’s been a brutal decade, with Boston College going unranked the entire year in 13 of the last 14 seasons. Hafley is in his fourth season in Chestnut Hill, and it went downhill fast last year with the Golden Eagles going 3-9 for their worst finish since 2015.

Danny Gonzalez, New Mexico +400

Gonzalez is out of the No. 1 spot for now thanks to the Lobos’ 34-31 overtime win at Massachusetts. But he still doesn’t have a lot of breathing room with New Mexico a two-score underdog this week at Wyoming.

Gonzales had an excellent chance to buy some time and gain goodwill as a home favorite over rival New Mexico State in Week 3. No dice. 

Now they’re on to conference play and a slate that has not been kind to the Lobos in recent years, with the team going 3-20 in conference play under Gonzales. More of that will likely lead to a change at the top sooner rather than later. 

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Brent Pry, Virginia Tech +600

Pry was supposed to stabilize a Hokies program that hit a few bumps in the final years of the Justin Fuente era, but things are heading in the wrong direction fast. 

The Hokies fell to 1-3 over the weekend with a 24-17 loss at Marshall, and the team has now been held to 17 points or less in three consecutive losses. Sportsbooks think they’ll be competitive this weekend as a +2.5 home dog over Pittsburgh, with a trip to No. 5 Florida State to follow in Week 6. 

If the Hokies lose a winnable game to the Panthers at home and get blown out by the Seminoles, it would bring the program to 4-13 under Pry and generate some uncomfortable discussions. 

Tony Elliot, Virginia +800

Nothing has come easy for Elliott in his second year at Virginia, and the Cavs are now 0-4 with no quick fixes in sight. 

The Cavs were finally competitive Saturday but still failed to get it done in a 24-21 home loss to North Carolina State. That came two weeks after a home loss to James Madison and now Virginia is a +3 underdog at Boston College, which is never a good sign. 

Virginia has three ranked opponents left on the schedule and might not have a good chance at an ACC victory until the season finale at home against rival Virginia Tech.

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About the Author

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com
Dan Kilbridge
Handicapper Dan Kilbridge writes about college football, MLB and other sports for Bookies.com after spending three years covering Tiger Woods’ comeback and the PGA for Golfweek.