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Next NFL Coach Fired Odds: Is Ron Rivera's Commanders Era Coming To An End?

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 5 mins

Next NFL Coach Fired Odds: Is Ron Rivera's Commanders Era Coming To An End?

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The "NFL Coaching Hot Seat" sits on simmer ahead of Week 18 and Black Monday. 

Three NFL coaches, Josh McDaniels, Frank Reich, and Brandon Staley, were fired during this season.

Staley was dismissed after the Chargers closed Week 14 of the NFL betting season with a 63-21 loss in Las Vegas on Monday night. The Raiders had dismissed McDaniels five weeks earlier. He coached just 25 games in Sin City. McDaniels has four-plus years remaining on his deal. 

Who's next? 

McDaniels' former boss, perhaps?

Embattled Patriots coach Bill Belichick has sat near the top of our "Next Coach Fired Odds" market since the Patriots' humiliating 10-6 loss to the Colts in Germany in Week 11. 

The Patriots have completely collapsed. At 4-12 the Patriots were the worst team in the AFC, and would pick third overall in the 2024 draft if the season ended today. Multiple media reports have the Patriots moving on from The Hoodie after this season, if somehow not sooner. 

Next NFL Coach To Be Fired Odds

Bookies.com Senior Handicapper Adam Thompson has offered his latest NFL odds and probabilities on which NFL coach will be the first one fired. Each coach is listed with team, odds, and the probability of it happening based on those odds. 

Coach Team Odds Implied Probability
Ron Rivera Commanders +125 44.5%
Bill Belichick Patriots +200 33.3%
Mike Vrabel Titans +450 18.2%
Arthur SmithFalcons +500 16.7%
Brian DabollGiants +1500 6.3%

This hypothetical betting market is for entertainment purposes only and does not reflect any market that may be available on betting sites and betting apps. It has been created by Bookies.com.

Ron Rivera, Commanders, +125

The Commanders dumped both Chase Young and Montez Sweat at the trade deadline. They were both former first-round picks. The Commanders were unable to follow up and have since collapsed down the stretch. Ron Rivera has yet to figure it out in Washington. His offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has done well in getting Sam Howell to progress as QB

Now that the Commanders are no longer viable in the playoff chase, the clock is ticking. It's only a question of whether or not the Commanders will wait until Monday to make this move or hit send on the press release Sunday night. 

Bill Belichick, Patriots, +200

Bill Belichick is arguably the best NFL coach of the post-merger era. But none of his accolades, or the eight rings noted on his fishing boat, seem to matter these days. 

The Patriots are now 4-12 and were the first AFC team to be eliminated from the playoffs. New England has not won a playoff game since Super Bowl 53. And yes, that covers the entire time since Tom Brady left Foxboro.

Right now, the Patriots would draft third if the season were to end today. This is a breathtaking collapse from what was once the model franchise in the NFL. Speculation in New England has now centered on when, not if, Belichick will be leaving the Patriots. How will Robert Kraft and Belichick engineer this divorce is the subject of great speculation. It's unlikely the Patriots would fire Belichick on Black Monday, if for no other reason so that he could get his full due in the national NFL media on the way out.

RELATED: Ranking All NFL Starting QBs Against The Spread

Mike Vrabel, Titans, +600

Mike Vrabel is another long-time coach whose name has made frequent appearances on this list. He pulled the plug on Ryan Tannehill this season but hasn't gotten much of a boost from rookie QB Will Levis

The Titans are at the only AFC South team that are not still in the playoff race ahead of Week 18. Vrabel will likely be among the first casualty in a major post-season purge on Black Monday now that the Titans have been eliminated from the playoff race.

Arthur Smith, Falcons, +500

The Falcons are still in the hunt in the up-for-grabs NFC South. But they're going to need some help if they hope to win it. They have to beat the Saints in Week 18, and the Buccaneers must also lose to the worst-in-the-NFL Panthers. If/once the Falcons miss the playoffs by falling short in the division, this game could well be enough for the Falcons to move on from Arthur Smith

RELATED: Super Bowl 58 Odds

Brian Daboll, Giants, +1500

Brian Daboll and the Giants overachieved in his first year as a head coach. This season, the Giants failed to find any semblance of offense, having used three different starting QBs this season. Jones is out until 2024. Tommy DeVito was the man until he got deep fried and injured by the Saints in Week 15 before eventually being benched. 

Tyrod Taylor is back to close out the season. The Mara family is patient. Daboll may get a pass given the injuries he's faced at QB. But with a long-shot potential return of Belichick to Big Blue and the Big Apple in the offing, Daboll might want to update his resume. 

Bookies Senior Handicapper Adam Thompson also contributed to this story. 

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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.