North Carolina vs Miami Betting Lines, Odds & Picks To Back

Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EST

Call it the ACC’s big showdown, junior welterweight division. With the conference reshuffling schedules this week to ease the paths of Notre Dame and Clemson into the title game, No. 9 Miami and No. 20 North Carolina are left playing for pride on Saturday.

But with Cincinnati at Tulsa and Michigan at Ohio State canceled, it’s also the most compelling game of the day for fans of college football betting. Miami’s stout defense faces North Carolina’s vaunted passing attack in a matchup that opened with the Hurricanes favored by 3.5 points and has since crept down. Both teams are coming off dominant victories – the Hurricanes 48-0 over lowly Duke; the Tar Heels 49-9 over lower-level Western Carolina.

It should be much different Saturday afternoon in South Florida, given that three of the last four meetings in this series have been determined by a touchdown or less. So, pour yourself a cafecito and peruse our best bets on this week’s biggest game.

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North Carolina vs Miami Odds & Picks

CHECK OUT & COMPARE: Complete North Carolina-Miami Betting Lines From Top Online Sportsbooks

North Carolina vs Miami Spread Betting

The Tar Heels have been a tough team for bettors to figure; one week they give up 53 points to Wake Forest, the next their defense stands strong and makes it difficult for Notre Dame to pull away. That Jekyll-and-Hyde nature has resulted in losses against the spread in four of their last six against FBS opponents.

The catch? Miami hasn’t been much better. The Hurricanes have split their last six against the spread after starting 3-0. Both of these teams tend to play to the level of its competition and both play lots of close games. Miami beat Virginia by five, Virginia Tech by one and N.C. State by three; UNC beat Boston College by four and Wake by six, and lost to Florida State and Virginia by three each. Expect more of the same at Hard Rock Stadium, and take the Tar Heels and the points.

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North Carolina vs Miami Moneyline Betting

Keeping it close and winning, though, are two different things, and that fact is laid out starkly in the results of the two teams so far this season. Although Miami was completely outclassed against Clemson, the Hurricanes are otherwise unblemished, making a habit of escaping close calls or pulling away late.

The Tar Heels have a legit quarterback in Sam Howell, but a suspect defense and a pass-first offense that can struggle to kill the clock with the game on the line. Miami, with D’Eriq King behind center, is far more balanced offensively and its defense is statistically one of the best in the ACC. It all translates into a familiar refrain: The Hurricanes bending but not breaking and hanging on to take a close one.

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North Carolina vs Miami Totals Betting

The presence of North Carolina’s high-powered offense doesn’t always guarantee lots of points. See the Tar Heels’ performance against Notre Dame, which held them to just 17 in a contest that fell far below the total of 69.5. But prior to that game, the Heels had gone over the total in five of six.

Miami is far less reliable against the total, with Overs in just two of its last five. It has also scored 44 or more in two of its last three and is still averaging nearly 35 per outing. There’s a lot of offensive firepower in this game – Howell and King stand first and third in the ACC, respectively, in total offense – which makes the Over tough to ignore.

About the Author

David Caraviello

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Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.