By Jordan Horrobin | | 6 mins
Oklahoma State vs Texas Predictions, Picks & Betting Preview
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Texas fans might still be reeling. A chance to retake glory in the Red River Showdown rivalry last week slipped through the Longhorns’ fingertips, as their 18-point lead in the third quarter did not hold up against Oklahoma.
AP Poll voters showed their respect for Texas, though, by keeping the two-loss team in the rankings at the No. 25 spot. The Longhorns have little time to wallow, as they’ll turn around this week and host No. 12 Oklahoma State on Saturday at 11 a.m. local time (noon ET).
The Cowboys enter unbeaten, although the college football odds post them as 5.5-point underdogs. Oklahoma State’s weaker schedule thus far is largely to thank for that.
A win Saturday would mark three in a row for Texas in this matchup, and it would help salve the pain from last week’s rivalry letdown. For Oklahoma State, a win could vault them into a top-10 position in the country. Find our college football picks for this matchup in the article below.
5 Keys to Oklahoma State vs Texas
Bijan’s at his best: Last week, a key storyline of Texas vs. Oklahoma was the Longhorns’ fifth-ranked rushing offense facing the Sooners’ seventh-ranked rushing defense. Thanks to Texas running back Bijan Robinson, the Longhorns won that battle handily. Robinson ran for 137 yards and a score, marking his fourth consecutive game of 120-plus rush yards. He’s a legit Heisman contender.
Two linemen hoping to return: Oklahoma State defensive ends Brock Martin and Tyren Irby both missed their team’s last game due to injury, but they’re hoping to return Saturday to face Texas. Cowboys coach Mike Gundy described Martin as “pushing to play,” while Irby is “on the verge.” Martin and Irby had 3.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss in 13 combined games last season.
Recent past: In the past two years, Texas has gone 2-0 against Oklahoma State while winning by just 13 combined points. In 2020, ex-Longhorn Sam Ehlinger led his team to a seven-point overtime win.
Cowboys coming off the bye: While Texas enters this game having just played its most heart-wrenching battle of the season, Oklahoma State is coming off a bye week. Extra rest and recovery could play a role.
Longhorns out indefinitely: Two Texas starters sustained injuries that will keep them out indefinitely. Receiver Jordan Whittington (clavicle) is second on the team in catches (24) and receiving yards (359). Outside linebacker Jacoby Jones has 19 total tackles in six games.
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Weather Forecast
A beautiful day awaits these teams, with temperatures in Austin, Texas set to climb into the high-70s and a scarce chance of precipitation.
Oklahoma State vs Texas Moneyline
Much has been made about this being a “hangover” game for Texas, after their near-miss to close out the biggest regular season game on their calendar. Sportsbooks have made the Longhorns home favorites (-225) despite their lower rank and Swiss-cheese defense.
Why? Because Texas’s offense can run with anybody. Casey Thompson is completely settled in under center, and he has a ton of weapons even with Whittington out. Oh, and then there’s Bijan Robinson, who looks matchup-proof right now. We like the Longhorns to bounce back this week. You can get Texas -220 at DraftKings.
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Oklahoma State vs Texas Point Spread
On the flip side, college football betting on the point spread makes us change our tune.
For one thing, each of the past four Texas-Oklahoma State matchups have been covered by the underdog. Also, what kind of an underdog is Oklahoma State? They’re No. 12 in the country, and they’re on a three-game win streak against the spread (not to mention a seven-game win streak overall). The Cowboys’ 5.5-point cushion on betting apps is well worth the bet.
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Oklahoma State vs Texas Totals
Did you see Texas’s defense last week? How about its offense? Both units suggest that points should come in bunches for a game featuring a 59.5-point total. The Longhorns have seen the over hit in four of their past five weeks.
But hold on a second, because Oklahoma State has only hit the over once in five tries, and their highest point total of the season is just 51. No matter who wins, we think a better showing from Texas’s defense and a stereotypical output from Oklahoma State’s offense will keep this game under the projected total. You can get Under 58.5 (-105) at FanDuel.
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