Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com

By Dan Kilbridge | | 4 mins

Crystal Ball: Ole Miss Odds To Win SEC – Time To Jump On?

Crystal Ball: Ole Miss Odds To Win SEC – Time To Jump On?
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The beautiful thing about college football betting is that the action never stops. That’s especially true in the college football futures market. Rather than just a flat preseason line on win totals, awards and conference winners, we get a brand new futures board each week with updated odds for things such as the Heisman Trophy, the SEC title, certain teams to make or miss the playoffs, etc.

We are selecting a new futures bet to back each week, looking for value in college football odds and jumping on lines before the big picture starts to come into focus. This week, we’re gazing into our Crystal Ball for one SEC futures longshot.

Ole Miss To Win The SEC (+3000)

This is the type of futures bet one normally places in secret to avoid public ridicule. We’re going to go ahead and state our case anyways, then bask in the glory or deal with the consequences come December.

There’s a great quote in the pilot episode of HBO’s “Succession,” during which fictional media mogul Logan Roy is arguing with his son about an expensive new media acquisition. Roy mentions all the criticism he received decades ago for buying a movie studio around the time VHS tapes were first introduced. Movie theatres were thought to be a sinking ship, but Roy realized people still wanted to go out if you gave them good reason.

“You make your own reality,” Roy said. “And once you’ve done it, apparently, everybody’s of the opinion it was all so (expletive) obvious.”

That’s the name of the game with longshot futures. You have to trust your gut and take chances the general public thinks are ridiculous. We’re ready to take the leap with Ole Miss at +3000 to win the SEC.

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Heisman Favorite Leads Loaded Offense

This Rebels offense looks stupid good so far at 635.3 yards per game, and quarterback Matt Corral has emerged as the Heisman Trophy betting favorite. They haven’t played a single SEC game yet, but a resume with blowout wins over Louisville and Tulane is more impressive than most after three weeks.

Corral is a dual-threat guy with 14 total touchdowns and no interceptions so far this season. He looks capable of doing it week in and week out, and so far the Rebels defense looks good enough to keep them in games.

Speaking of LSU, this bet is partly inspired by the 2019 Tigers. Again, it all seems so obvious after the fact – of course LSU was going win the title with Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and others comprising maybe the best pound-for-pound offense we’ve ever seen.

That 2019 LSU team was +1200 just to win the SEC at the start of the season, and people continued to doubt as they passed every test against Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia and, ultimately, Clemson. LSU gave up 38 points to Texas and Vanderbilt, 41 points to Alabama and 37 points to Ole Miss that season and still ran the table at 15-0.

That’s what we mean about Ole Miss’ defense just needing to be good enough. College football is all about offense right now. You recruit elite skill positions, call plays like a 14-year-old on the Madden sticks, forget about clock management and race your opponent to the top of the scoreboard.

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The Path For Ole Miss

Alabama has had a top-three offense for three consecutive seasons, with two titles to show for it. The Tide didn’t run into a defensive powerhouse in 2019 – they ran into the only team that could do what Alabama was doing better than Alabama.

Ole Miss gets its shot at the Tide in two weeks, and Alabama will be at least a two-score favorite. It’s still early and the Tide have played stiff competition, but the offense doesn’t look as sharp as it has in recent years. They only managed 331 yards in a 31-29 win at Florida, the lowest single-game output since a 2018 win over Mississippi State. And the Rebels will put up points at Bryant-Denny, maybe enough to trigger an upset.

Further challenges await Ole Miss in Arkansas, Auburn and Texas A&M, and it’s possible the offense is a paper tiger feasting on lesser talent. But there’s no question they have a chance to be the best offense in college football, and that gives them a great shot every time they take the field.

There’s no recent Ole Miss history that suggests this is possible. But the overall trends and the threat the Rebels could pose lead us to believe they’ll shake things up big time in the SEC. We don’t want to miss the boat on the next truly great offense. We’re making a call now and touching Ole Miss to win the SEC at +3000 odds with FanDuel.

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About the Author

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com
Dan Kilbridge
Handicapper Dan Kilbridge writes about college football, MLB and other sports for Bookies.com after spending three years covering Tiger Woods’ comeback and the PGA for Golfweek.