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Oregon vs Oklahoma Alamo Bowl Picks & Betting Predictions

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com

Dan Kilbridge  | 5 mins

Oregon vs Oklahoma Alamo Bowl Picks & Betting Predictions

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After being told “It’s not you, it’s me,” two once-proud programs were left to find new dancing partners as Oregon and Oklahoma get set to play in the Alamo Bowl. The Ducks and Sooners saw their coaches depart for potentially greener pastures this offseason, with Oregon’s Mario Cristobal taking the Miami job and Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley leaving Norman for the bright lights at USC.

There are a lot of moving pieces here with assistants coming and going, several star player opt-outs and two interim coaches – Bob Stoops for the Sooners and Bryan McClendon for the Ducks. That means handicappers have their work cut out in this one, trying to gauge motivation and participation amid all the hectic circumstances.

Let’s take a deeper look into this matchup and what it means from a college football betting perspective.

All college football odds are current as of publication. Betting sites may indicate odds changes closer to kickoff.

Oregon vs. Oklahoma Key Matchups

Oregon OL vs. Oklahoma Front Seven: The Ducks rely heavily on the run and will likely do so even more in this matchup. They’re missing some skill position players on offense, but Oklahoma will be without two key defensive linemen in Nik Bonitto and Perrion Winfrey. Ducks right tackle Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu has already declared for the NFL Draft but will suit up, and Oregon will be counting on its tackles for a heavy work load against a solid Sooners rushing defense.

Caleb Williams vs. Oregon DBs: Williams snatched the starting role away from preseason Heisman favorite Spencer Rattler earlier this season. The Sooners’ true freshman is now a top Heisman contender entering 2022 after an excellent second half of the season. Oregon has been vulnerable against the pass at times and this is where Oklahoma can do damage – especially with Ducks cornerback D.J. James entering the transfer portal.

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RELATED: Your Ultimate Betting Guide To College Football Bowl Season

4 Key Stats For Oregon vs. Oklahoma

25.5: Points per game allowed by Oregon.

25.3 Points per game allowed by Oklahoma.

33: Sacks allowed by the Sooners, among the most in the country.

+10: Turnover margin for both teams.

Oregon vs. Oklahoma Moneyline

Oklahoma opened as the moneyline favorite and quickly went even shorter as money poured in on the Sooners. Oklahoma is now a -275 favorite for this matchup due largely to all the uncertainty for the Ducks.

The remainder of Oregon’s staff is staying largely intact for the bowl game, but there have been some questions with many of them leaving to join Cristobal in Miami right after. Oklahoma has plenty of missing pieces as well – many of them key starters – but the transition has seemed a bit smoother with new hires starting a long-term investment in bowl prep.

Oregon should compete hard and won’t get embarrassed again after dropping two games to Utah to ruin their College Football Playoff chances. But it’s fair to wonder how this roster will hold up in crunch time.

We like the Sooners to hit on the moneyline in a close one at the Alamodome.

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Oregon vs. Oklahoma Point Spread

Oklahoma was originally a -4 favorite on the opening line for the Alamo Bowl. The public pounced and the Sooners have been bet all the way up to a -7 or -6.5 favorite.

The Sooners won nine straight to start the year, but they didn’t exactly kill it at the sportsbook. Oklahoma was just 5-6-1 against the spread and lost two of its last three straight up, with a 27-14 loss at Baylor and a 37-33 defeat at Oklahoma State.

The Ducks weren’t a good bet either at 5-8 ATS, but they were 2-2 as an underdog – including a massive outright win at Ohio State for a game in which Oregon was giving 14.5 points.

We know the Ducks are extremely shorthanded and without star defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux. But Oklahoma is also missing several key starters up front and we think the Ducks will keep it simple on offense, chipping away on the ground. A whopping 84% of spread tickets are on Oklahoma, but we like Oregon to keep it close and cover in an ugly game.

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Oregon vs. Oklahoma Total

This total is in the low 60s for two programs with a reputation of lighting up the scoreboard. That hasn’t been the case as often this year, and the Ducks and Sooners’ defenses have been underrated throughout the season.

However, both defenses are now shorthanded and this game could definitely get weird with a pair of interim coaches. The money is split almost dead even on the Over and the Under, with the Over going 13-12 in games involving the Ducks and Sooners.

For this matchup, our money is on the Over. New users who sign up at DraftKings this week should use the latest DraftKings promo code. It unlocks a Bet $5, Win $200 special offer.

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About the Author

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com
Dan Kilbridge
Handicapper Dan Kilbridge writes about college football, MLB and other sports for Bookies.com after spending three years covering Tiger Woods’ comeback and the PGA for Golfweek.
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