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Tennessee vs Florida Betting Predictions, Picks & Preview

David Caraviello for Bookies.com

David Caraviello  | 6 mins

Tennessee vs Florida Betting Predictions, Picks & Preview

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If there’s such a thing as the best loss of the season, Florida earned it last weekend by pushing top-ranked Alabama to the final play as 14-point underdogs in the Swamp. Now the Gators turn their attention to another old SEC rival, in another game college football betting experts aren’t expecting to be close.

Tennessee ventures to Gainesville on Saturday as nearly a three-touchdown underdog at sportsbooks in a series where it’s lost 14 of 15 meetings since 2005. Only four Volunteers defeats over that span have been by single-digits.

This was a great rivalry when Steve Spurrier and Peyton Manning were involved - but more recently, it’s been a shadow of its former self. And yet, it remains the type of name-brand matchup that can prove irresistible to those making college football picks.

Odds are current as of publication. Betting sites may indicate odds changes closer to kickoff.

Tennessee vs Florida Key Matchups

Tennessee’s defense vs. Florida’s run game: The Gators lead the nation in rushing offense after running for 245 against Alabama. Tennessee held Pittsburgh to 96 total yards in a loss two weeks ago, but this will be the first real test of the Vols’ front seven.

Tennessee’s quarterbacks vs. injuries: Joe Milton sat out last weekend’s victory over Tennessee Tech with a “lower body injury,” so Hendon Hooker started and passed for 199 yards and three TDs. Who’ll start against Florida? Coach Josh Heupel was unsure early in the week, waiting to see how Milton progresses .

Tennessee WRs vs. Florida DBs: Tennessee's strength is at wideout, where the Vols have pass-catchers capable of winning one-on-one battles downfield - if a QB can get them the ball. Alabama passed for 240 yards and three TDs against Florida, with eight different receivers making catches.

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5 Key Tennessee vs Florida Stats

1-2: The record of both teams against the spread. Tennessee’s only cover was as 38-point favorites against Tennessee Tech, Florida’s as 14-point underdogs against Alabama.

4-8-1: Tennessee’s record against the spread dating back to the start of the 2020 season.

23: Florida’s average margin of victory over Tennessee the past three seasons, since Dan Mullen was hired as the Gators’ coach.

24-16-1: Florida’s record going over the total since Mullen was hired.

8: Tennessee’s current losing streak against ranked opponents, dating back to a victory over then-No. 12 Kentucky in November of 2018.

Tennessee vs Florida Weather Forecast

The Swamp could be - well, swampy for an evening kickoff. Early forecasts called for a 40 percent chance of rain late Saturday afternoon, tapering off into the evening. Temperatures at kickoff are forecast in the low 80s, with high humidity making for a steamy night.

Tennessee vs Florida Moneyline

The moneyline set by betting sites is understandably lopsided, with Tennessee +800 to pull the upset and Florida a -1800 favorite. The Volunteers have played one decent opponent in Pittsburgh, and lost that at home. Heupel is rebuilding, and his QB situation is uncertain. Confidence is high in Gainesville, especially after Florida took Alabama to the brink. These programs are miles apart right now, and that moneyline appeals only to diehard Volunteers faithful hoping to strike it big. Otherwise, save your bankroll for more favorable college football odds.

Tennessee vs Florida Point Spread

The most favorable number you’ll find on Florida is -19.5, with other sportsbooks pushing it to 20 and above. The Gators looked very good against Alabama, with that new ground-oriented offense chewing up yards and controlling tempo in the second half. Tennessee is turnover-prone and gives up too many sacks, so expect Florida to dominate time of possession and have its offense on the field much of the game. Last time in Gainesville, this was a 31-point game, and the possibility exists for something similar Saturday. Yes, it’s a big number - but at home, given what we’ve seen from these two squads, it’s worth taking. You can get Florida -20 at DraftKings .

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Tennessee vs Florida Totals

This is the game’s most interesting bet, with betting apps placing the total at 60.5. Both teams have gone over twice in three games this season, and that includes against the best opponent each has played - Pittsburgh for Tennessee, Alabama for Florida. We have confidence that Florida will put up points against a Tennessee defense that gave up 41 to Pitt, but to hit the over, the Vols will also have to score. Given the lopsided recent history in this series and Tennessee’s quarterback questions, we’re not sure they can do that. The under beckons as the more reasonable play. You can get Under 62 at BetMGM .

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About the Author

David Caraviello for Bookies.com
David Caraviello
Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.