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UCLA vs. Oregon Predictions, Picks & Betting Preview

David Caraviello for Bookies.com

David Caraviello  | 6 mins

UCLA vs. Oregon Predictions, Picks & Betting Preview

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The biggest game of the Pac-12 season arrives Saturday, when Oregon travels to UCLA in a matchup of two teams that are each capable of looking fantastic one week, and futile the next. So of course this contest featured a whiplash early line move that initially had Oregon as 3-point favorites before swinging almost a full 180 degrees toward UCLA.

That degree of capriciousness has been evident in these teams all season. The Ducks win at Ohio State, then lose to Stanford and struggle to beat Cal, whose only victory is over Sacramento State. The Bruins beat LSU, then lose to Fresno State. Top-10 Oregon is 1-5 against the spread, unranked UCLA is 4-2.

Regardless, expect this game to attract strong college football betting interest on an otherwise weak Saturday schedule.

All college football odds are current as of publication. Betting sites may indicate odds changes closer to kickoff.

Oregon vs UCLA Key Matchups

UCLA’s offensive line against Kayvon Thibodeaux: The Oregon defensive end is a game-changer, and the Ducks’ hopes of controlling tempo with defense hinge on Thibodeaux being able to pressure UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Zach Charbonnet against Oregon’s defensive front: Chip Kelly’s team are known for their big passing numbers, but they’re rooted in solid running games. In that regard Charbonnet is the Bruins’ engine, and a big game from him will open things up for the Bruins’ aerial attack.

Anthony Brown vs. the expectations: While his fourth-quarter heroics saved the Ducks against Cal, Brown has been inconsistent as of late and occasionally hears calls from Oregon fans for his backup. Even away from home, the pressure will be on.

5 Key Oregon vs UCLA Stats

17-23: Oregon’s record against the spread under head coach Mario Cristobal, hired prior to the 2018 season.

8-2-1: UCLA’s record of going over the total against ranked opponents under Kelly, also hired prior to the 2018 season.

408.2: The average number of yards Oregon’s defense is allowing per game, which ranks last in the Pac-12.

9-1: Oregon’s record over the last 10 years against UCLA, which includes a 38-35 victory in Eugene last season.

2017: The last time Oregon and UCLA met in the Rose Bowl, when the Bruins won 31-14.

Oregon vs UCLA Weather Forecast

It’s Pasadena in October, so the weather figures to be a non-factor for those making college football picks. Early forecasts call for temperatures in the high 60s at kickoff, which will be 12:30 p.m. local and 3:30 p.m. ET. While skies may be overcast, the rain chance should be minimal.

Oregon vs UCLA Moneyline

The Bruins are a -122 moneyline favorite, according to sportsbooks, while the Ducks are a +100 underdog. The styles could not be more different: UCLA will try to push the tempo and turn the game into a track meet, while Oregon will try to exert control through its defense.

But the Ducks are going to have to put up points to win, and the fact that they’ve managed just 24 in each of their last two games is concerning. Oregon has been winning ugly, but it’s hard to do that against UCLA, which is why we like the Bruins on a moneyline that returns a reasonable $82 for every $100 wagered. You can get UCLA -125 at DraftKings.

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Oregon vs UCLA Point Spread

UCLA is a 2.5-point favorite, according to betting sites, with the line flipping after initially opening with Oregon as favorite. The Bruins’ 24-17 victory this past weekend against a quality Washington defense marked the first time this season that they’ve scored fewer than 34 points in a game.

Oregon’s defense, meanwhile, is ranked 91st nationally, allowing nearly 410 yards per outing. The Bruins have the more dynamic offensive playmakers in Thompson-Robinson and Charbonnet, and just enough defense to cover these odds at home.

Oregon vs UCLA Totals

The total is 58.5, according to betting apps. Neither team has been especially proficient at going over the number this season; Oregon is 2-4 against the over and UCLA 3-4, though the Bruins typically face totals in the 60s.

And though its performance of late may not reflect it, Oregon on the season is averaging more points per game than UCLA. Whether it’s Fresno State, Ohio State, Stanford or Cal, Oregon’s offense has played up or down to its opponent much of this year, giving us confidence the Ducks can score enough against UCLA to push the total over. You can get Over 59 (-110) at BetMGM.

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About the Author

David Caraviello for Bookies.com
David Caraviello
Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.